Hurricane Beryl’s rapid evolution from a tropical depression to a major Category 5 threat so early in the summer is raising alarms that forecasts for a “hyperactive” Atlantic storm season might be on target.
Late Monday, the churning Beryl escalated to Category 5 intensity, packing maximum sustained winds of 165 miles per hour — unprecedented this early in the Atlantic season, according to the National Hurricane Center. It became the strongest July Atlantic hurricane on record, surpassing the 160-mile-per-hour maximum winds set by Hurricane Emily in 2005. Before Emily, Hurricane Allen in August 1980 held the record for the earliest Atlantic hurricane clocking 165-mile-per-hour winds.
By Tuesday afternoon, the hurricane had weakened to a still destructive Category 4 storm after making landfall earlier Monday on the Caribbean island of Carriacou, Grenada.
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“Storms like Beryl are extremely rare,” said Philip Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science. “Normally, early season activity doesn’t have much of a bearing on the rest of the season’s activity, but when that activity occurs in the tropics and [east of the Caribbean], it tends to be a harbinger of a very busy season.”
Beryl formed farther east in the Atlantic than any major June hurricane before it, breaking the record set in 1933. The storm took shape off the northern coast of South America, around 600 miles east of Barbados and the Lesser Antilles.
“Unfortunately, Beryl is breaking records that were set in 1933 and 2005 — two of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record,” Klotzbach said.
Beryl is unprecedented in another way: Two days before strengthening into a Category 5 storm, the monster cyclone spun into a Category 4 powerhouse in less than 48 hours, becoming the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record to form in the Atlantic Ocean. The previous record was set by Hurricane Dennis in July 2005.
A warming ocean like ‘early September’
The first major hurricane of the season, Beryl has gained much of its strength from unusually high ocean temperatures caused by climate change, fueling an environment ripe for hurricane formation and rapid intensification, according to scientists.
“Beryl is feeding off incredibly warm water with surface temperatures running what they should be in early September,” said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center in Falmouth.
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“We’ve been expecting an explosive hurricane season. 2023 was record-smashing, and it just hasn’t let up,” Francis said.
Sea surface temperatures are still near or at record-breaking territory. The average ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, where nearly 80 percent of June tropical storms and hurricanes begin to form, are 1.44 degrees [Celsius] above average, the highest on record for this time of year.
Atlantic temperatures in the main development region for hurricanes are running at equally record-high levels, signaling that sea conditions are becoming more favorable for hurricane formation.
“Typically, early season activity in the tropics is limited due to relatively cool sea surface temperatures, too much dust, dry air, etc. Obviously the temperatures aren’t too much of an issue this year,” Klotzbach said.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its most aggressive Atlantic hurricane outlook to date, predicting 17 to 25 named tropical storms will form in the Atlantic through Nov. 30. Of those storms, NOAA forecasts eight to 13 will form into hurricanes, four to seven of which will strengthen into major hurricanes (Category 3 or larger).
Where is Beryl headed?
After the eye of the storm passed directly over the island of Carriacou on Monday, models show that Beryl will barrel through the Caribbean before setting its sights on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. As of now, it looks like the hurricane will bring impacts to south Texas Sunday and into Monday as a downgraded tropical storm.
On its way Beryl was first overwhelming Jamaica, which last saw a tropical system slam the island in 2021 with Tropical Storm Elsa. The last hurricane to deliver significant impacts to Jamaica was Hurricane Matthew in 2016. On Wednesday, the hurricane was battering Jamaica’s southern coast with strong Category 3 wind gusts (111-129 mph) and storm surges 6 to 9 feet above normal as the core of the storm passes closely to the south.
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When is New England due to see a hurricane?
The last tropical storm to strike New England was Tropical Storm Henri in 2021, and the last hurricane to make landfall was Hurricane Bob in 1991, which made landfall in Rhode Island as a Category 1 storm packing winds of 100 miles per hour.
New England saw minimal impacts from a downgraded Hurricane Lee in mid-September 2023. Lee ended up as a “post-tropical cyclone,” a storm that loses tropical characteristics by moving over cooler water, by the time it reached the Northeast. It still, however, managed to pack a punch with near-hurricane-force winds 70-mile-per-hour winds when it made landfall in Nova Scotia.
On average, Southern New England sees a landfalling hurricane once every 12 years — and it’s been 33 years since Bob made its mark, so the region is long overdue.
Exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures remain in place across the northern Atlantic, with average temperatures exceeding 3 degrees Celsius higher than average along the East Coast. This ocean heat could give storms enough of an energy boost to stay intact in higher latitudes.
Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.