MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-07-04. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
NL | Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers | Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | ||
AL | Baltimore Orioles | Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals |
Playoff Odds
Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 1.0 | 0.1 | 57 | 30 | 42.5 | 32.5 | 99.5 | 62.5 | 107-55 | 92-70 | >99.9% | 4.2% | 95.8% | 95.4% | 52.8% | 28.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.2% | ||||||
2 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.4 | 0.0 | 47 | 38 | 40.3 | 36.7 | 87.3 | 74.7 | 95-67 | 80-82 | 80.8% | 77.1% | 3.7% | 41.5% | 19.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | -3.5% | -5.6% | -13.0% | ||||||
3 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.3 | -0.1 | 42 | 43 | 40.2 | 36.8 | 82.2 | 79.8 | 89-73 | 75-87 | 37.4% | 36.9% | 0.5% | 17.1% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% | -11.0% | -20.5% | +21.9% | ||||||
4 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -0.2 | 0.0 | 41 | 46 | 36.4 | 38.6 | 77.4 | 84.6 | 85-77 | 70-92 | 8.9% | 8.9% | <0.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | <0.1% | +2.0% | -2.4% | +4.8% | ||||||
5 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -1.3 | 0.1 | 30 | 57 | 30.1 | 44.9 | 60.1 | 101.9 | 67-95 | 53-109 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 0.8 | 0.0 | 52 | 36 | 41.4 | 32.6 | 93.4 | 68.6 | 100-62 | 87-75 | 99.2% | 4.7% | 94.5% | 75.2% | 38.7% | 20.2% | 10.0% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -0.6% | ||||||
2 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | 0.3 | -0.2 | 42 | 45 | 40.3 | 34.7 | 82.3 | 79.7 | 89-73 | 75-87 | 40.0% | 35.7% | 4.3% | 19.9% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 1.3% | +4.4% | +7.3% | +22.2% | ||||||
3 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | -0.6 | 0.1 | 45 | 41 | 34.4 | 41.6 | 79.4 | 82.6 | 86-76 | 72-90 | 17.1% | 16.2% | 0.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | +3.7% | +8.4% | +13.3% | ||||||
4 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | -0.2 | -0.1 | 40 | 48 | 36.2 | 37.8 | 76.2 | 85.8 | 83-79 | 69-93 | 3.4% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | -2.1% | -52.8% | ||||||
5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.5 | 0.1 | 41 | 45 | 34.6 | 41.4 | 75.6 | 86.4 | 82-80 | 69-93 | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -1.9% | -5.5% | -11.6% | ||||||
NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 1.0 | 0.0 | 53 | 35 | 42.2 | 31.8 | 95.2 | 66.8 | 102-60 | 89-73 | 99.8% | 6.8% | 93.0% | 85.2% | 44.5% | 24.3% | 13.7% | 0.0% | -0.2% | -0.1% | ||||||
2 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.4 | -0.2 | 48 | 43 | 38.4 | 32.6 | 86.4 | 75.6 | 93-69 | 80-82 | 76.8% | 70.8% | 6.0% | 42.0% | 20.0% | 8.7% | 3.1% | +2.2% | +3.1% | +13.8% | ||||||
3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | 0.1 | 0.0 | 43 | 44 | 37.8 | 37.2 | 80.8 | 81.2 | 88-74 | 74-88 | 25.7% | 25.0% | 0.7% | 10.4% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | +4.8% | +14.7% | -3.0% | ||||||
4 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | -0.5 | 0.0 | 43 | 45 | 34.7 | 39.3 | 77.7 | 84.3 | 85-77 | 71-91 | 8.3% | 8.0% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -1.0% | +2.9% | +4.9% | ||||||
5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.6 | 0.2 | 30 | 57 | 29.5 | 45.5 | 59.5 | 102.5 | 67-95 | 53-109 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 1.3 | -0.1 | 55 | 32 | 44.6 | 30.4 | 99.6 | 62.4 | 106-56 | 93-69 | 99.8% | 24.7% | 75.1% | 88.4% | 51.4% | 30.7% | 18.1% | 0.0% | +0.3% | +0.2% | ||||||
2 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.9 | -0.1 | 54 | 35 | 41.8 | 31.2 | 95.8 | 66.2 | 103-59 | 89-73 | 98.4% | 74.1% | 24.3% | 64.0% | 30.3% | 15.2% | 8.0% | +0.2% | -0.9% | -1.5% | ||||||
3 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.2 | 0.1 | 47 | 39 | 38.1 | 37.9 | 85.1 | 76.9 | 92-70 | 78-84 | 39.3% | 38.8% | 0.5% | 20.5% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | +1.0% | +1.5% | +30.3% | ||||||
4 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | -0.7 | 0.3 | 44 | 43 | 32.7 | 42.3 | 76.7 | 85.3 | 84-78 | 69-93 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -3.0% | ||||||
5 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | -0.3 | 0.0 | 39 | 48 | 36.1 | 38.9 | 75.1 | 86.9 | 82-80 | 69-93 | 0.6% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.8% | -1.3% | -3.4% | ||||||
AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.8 | 0.2 | 54 | 31 | 41.6 | 35.4 | 95.6 | 66.4 | 103-59 | 88-74 | 98.6% | 19.5% | 79.1% | 88.0% | 46.2% | 22.7% | 10.7% | +0.6% | -0.3% | +9.4% | ||||||
2 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.6 | 0.0 | 49 | 38 | 40.4 | 34.6 | 89.4 | 72.6 | 96-66 | 82-80 | 78.4% | 65.0% | 13.4% | 47.1% | 21.7% | 10.6% | 5.2% | +5.7% | +7.4% | +1.3% | ||||||
3 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | 0.5 | 0.0 | 48 | 41 | 39.4 | 33.6 | 87.4 | 74.6 | 94-68 | 80-82 | 62.6% | 55.3% | 7.3% | 34.8% | 15.5% | 7.7% | 3.6% | -8.6% | -5.4% | -11.6% | ||||||
4 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -0.1 | 0.1 | 39 | 48 | 37.0 | 38.0 | 76.0 | 86.0 | 83-79 | 69-93 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -1.3% | -3.4% | -20.7% | ||||||
5 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -1.6 | 0.0 | 25 | 64 | 27.5 | 45.5 | 52.5 | 109.5 | 59-103 | 46-116 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.1 | -0.2 | 48 | 41 | 37.7 | 35.3 | 85.7 | 76.3 | 93-69 | 79-83 | 57.3% | 10.1% | 47.2% | 24.1% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 1.8% | +4.2% | -8.7% | -26.8% | ||||||
2 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 0.5 | 0.0 | 45 | 42 | 40.6 | 34.4 | 85.6 | 76.4 | 93-69 | 79-83 | 58.3% | 8.1% | 50.2% | 30.0% | 15.9% | 6.0% | 2.6% | +1.2% | +17.0% | +28.8% | ||||||
3 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | 0.0 | -0.2 | 39 | 48 | 38.5 | 36.5 | 77.5 | 84.5 | 84-78 | 71-91 | 4.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -1.5% | -5.2% | -3.0% | ||||||
4 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -0.7 | -0.1 | 36 | 50 | 35.0 | 41.0 | 71.0 | 91.0 | 78-84 | 64-98 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 0.0% | ||||||
5 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -1.0 | 0.0 | 33 | 56 | 31.1 | 41.9 | 64.1 | 97.9 | 71-91 | 57-105 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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