During the Cold War, NATO relied on a “forward defense” strategy of amassing forces near the contact line to deter Soviet aggression. After the Cold War, however, the Alliance shifted its defense strategy to a “deterrence by punishment” approach, pulling back some forces but threatening severe retaliation in response to any attack. This change reflected the reduced immediacy of threats to the Alliance at the time. Now, amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and rising global instability, NATO is once again adapting its strategy.
This change in the Alliance’s strategy began at the Madrid summit in 2022, where allies agreed to a new Strategic Concept that acknowledged the evolving security landscape and committed them “to defend every inch of Allied territory.” The Vilnius summit in 2023 marked another crucial moment for NATO’s deterrence and defense posture. It introduced an ambitious “family of plans” comprising three regional defense strategies, covering the Atlantic and European Arctic, the Baltic region and Central Europe, and the Mediterranean and Black Sea. These three regional defense strategies are supported by subordinate strategic plans across seven functional domains, including cyber, space, special operations, and reinforcement.
This integrated approach aims to synchronize military operations across the Euro-Atlantic region and various domains, offering diverse responses to threats from adversaries such as Russia or terrorist groups. As part of these plans, allies will maintain up to three hundred thousand troops at high readiness (ready within thirty days), along with one hundred brigades, 1,400 fighter aircraft, and 250 ships and submarines. This initiative represents NATO’s most ambitious restructuring of its force posture since the end of the Cold War.
However, successfully executing these plans remains the ultimate challenge. At the Washington summit this week, NATO allies must address persistent issues, such as long-term capability gaps and the revitalization of arms production, to ensure these blueprints translate into actionable strategies. The Washington summit presents a critical opportunity for Allies to chart a clear path forward—not just to demonstrate that these plans exist, but also to provide a credible roadmap for effectively implementing them.
Bridging the capability gap
The fact that twenty-three allied nations are meeting the defense spending target of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) is important progress. However, more needs to be done to ensure NATO’s ability to successfully deploy its regional plans. Under the new regional plans, the Alliance must be capable of defending every inch of allied territory across multiple domains. To accomplish this, allies must adhere to greater capability requirements and higher levels of defense spending.
While the capability requirements based on the regional plans are still being determined as part of the NATO Defence Planning Process, the new defense plans necessitate a three-fold increase to existing military capability targets and for each ally to spend 3 percent of its GDP on defense. The key question facing allied leaders is whether they are ready to commit these resources to ensure the credibility of these regional plans.
The Washington summit presents several opportunities to solidify the implementation of NATO’s family of plans:
- Exercise at scale and frequency: Allies must reaffirm their commitment to fully resource and regularly exercise the family of plans. This includes conducting exercises at a scale not seen in decades to rehearse, refine, and validate the plans while enhancing readiness. Steadfast Defender 24, NATO’s largest military exercise since the Cold War with more than ninety thousand troops from all thirty-two allies, is a great example of the type of exercises that the Alliance needs to conduct more frequently.
- Continue to develop regional plans: The executability of NATO’s family of plans hinges on the availability of readily accessible resources, the ability to move forces, and the fulfillment of capability requirements by the allies. To achieve this, allies must place significant emphasis on integrating national defense plans with NATO’s defense plans. This integration will enhance force mobility, foster greater cohesion and interoperability among allies, and strengthen NATO’s overall deterrence and defense posture.
- Revitalize the transatlantic industrial base: Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine has exposed the need for a revitalized defense industrial base. Allies must ramp up defense production to not only support Ukraine but also replenish their own stocks and meet the demands of modern warfare. The Washington summit needs to facilitate collaboration among allies to procure and develop capabilities jointly, leveraging economies of scale and expertise. NATO allies need to expand existing production facilities to meet the increased demand for military equipment, ensuring the timely delivery of critical capabilities. Moving forward with the NATO defense industrial pledge is a step into the right direction to help allies boost already existing industrial capabilities, standardize equipment, and inform their national production strategies.
The Washington summit represents a pivotal moment for NATO. While the family of plans offers a promising blueprint for collective defense, its success hinges on allies’ ability to verify readiness, overcome capability gaps, revitalize the transatlantic defense industrial base, and integrate national defense plans with NATO defense plans in the face of evolving security challenges. By seizing the opportunities presented at the summit, NATO can reaffirm its commitment to collective defense and ensure the credibility of its deterrence posture in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
Luka Ignac is an assistant director for the Transatlantic Security Initiative within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council.
NATO’s seventy-fifth anniversary is a milestone in a remarkable story of reinvention, adaptation, and unity. However, as the Alliance seeks to secure its future for the next seventy-five years, it faces the revanchism of old rivals, escalating strategic competition, and uncertainties over the future of the rules-based international order.
With partners and allies turning attention from celebrations to challenges, the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative invited contributors to engage with the most pressing concerns ahead of the historic Washington summit and chart a path for the Alliance’s future. This series will feature seven essays focused on concrete issues that NATO must address at the Washington summit and five essays that examine longer-term challenges the Alliance must confront to ensure transatlantic security.
Further reading
Mon, Jun 10, 2024
Building the bridge: How to inject credibility into NATO’s promise of membership for Ukraine
New Atlanticist By Ian Brzezinski
Ukraine’s bridge to NATO membership must be built in ways that institutionalize its integration into the Alliance’s structures—starting now.
Tue, Jun 25, 2024
Four steps that NATO’s southern flank strategy needs to succeed
New Atlanticist By Jason Davidson
NATO’s first southern flank strategy is coming together for the upcoming Washington summit. But additional spending in four specific areas is needed, too.
Mon, Jul 1, 2024
NATO allies need a better approach to industrial strategy
New Atlanticist By Kristen Taylor
The Washington summit next week is an opportunity for the Alliance to send clear demand signals to industry and develop more coordinated, effective industrial strategies.
Image: Armoured vehicles move during "Noble Blueprint 2023" military exercise at Novo Selo military grounds, Bulgaria, September 26, 2023. The drill is organised by the NATO multinational brigade under Italy's command, including army personnel and equipment from Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Turkey, Albania and the U.S. REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov