In response to Beijing’s attempts to cement its dominant position across the “new three” technologies of solar photovoltaics (PVs), electric vehicles (EVs), and batteries, the Biden administration is poised to issue tariffs on key Chinese products. A look at China’s battery exports, and its associated battery complex, reveals both opportunities and risks for US and allied comprehensive security interests.
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On one hand, lithium-ion (li-ion) batteries, including those made in China, the world’s largest li-ion manufacturer, are useful for decarbonizing the US grid, improving the economics of solar deployment, and providing a key input for electric vehicles. On the other hand, ceding a new and important clean tech industry could pose long-term economic damages. Allowing China to dominate this sector hollows out US manufacturing capacity and know-how, while giving China’s battery complex the opportunity to grow in capacity and provide synergies with its submarine and drone-making capabilities, which are increasingly important in modern warfare. This rise in industrial capacity could prove significant in military contingencies involving Taiwan.
Managing these battery dilemmas will be challenging, but not impossible. Most immediately, the United States and its allies, friends, and partners should rigorously investigate where Chinese-made batteries do—and, significantly, do not—pose security risks. Most importantly, however, they should accelerate development of their own battery supply chains.
Chinese li-ion battery exports and US decarbonization objectives
China’s global lithium-ion battery exports reached $65 billion in 2023, up nearly 400 percent from pre-COVID levels in 2019. More than half of these 2023 exports were shipped to the European Union and the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade zone.
Chinese li-ion battery exports are largely bound for the European Union and North America.
Source: PRC General Administration of Customs, author’s calculations
Chinese battery exports to USMCA are highly correlated with EV manufacturing capacity and solar installed capacity, which are often paired with battery energy storage systems. In North America, these facilities are overwhelmingly concentrated in the United States, which accounts for the lion’s share of USMCA’s lithium-ion battery imports, according to Chinese trade statistics. (Note: the United States and China report slightly different total trade figures, due to reporting lags and the timing of international shipments.)
Chinese exports to USMCA are largely routed through the United States.
Source: PRC General Administration of Customs, author’s calculations
According to the US Census Bureau, in 2023, the United States directly imported $13.1 billion in lithium-ion batteries from China, accounting for 70 percent all US li-ion battery imports in 2023, as measured in value. US li-ion imports are split between storage and batteries for electric vehicles.
US lithium-ion batteries derive primarily from China, both directly and indirectly.
Source: US Customs Data, author’s calculations
It’s worth noting that China’s share of all US li-ion batteries is understated in official statistics, in both absolute and relative terms. Chinese battery companies, as well as big battery players based in South Korea and Japan, often have manufacturing facilities in third-party countries that export to the United States.
In other words, China is currently an important player in US decarbonization, particularly when it comes to energy storage. China exported $10.8 billion of Li-ion storage batteries to the United States in 2023, accounting for 72 percent of all US imports of the product.
Chinese imports are particularly important in the storage market.
Source: US Customs Data, author’s calculations
These li-ion storage batteries are useful for decarbonizing the US power sector and complementing solar generation. As recent research shows, California and other western states have significantly increased their uptake of storage batteries on the grid, enabling solar’s percentage share of all generation to rise, advancing state and national decarbonization objectives.
The security risks from China’s battery complex
While mainland China’s li-ion batteries are useful for decarbonization, its battery complex poses often-overlooked security risks, especially in the event of a contingency over Taiwan. Batteries figure increasingly prominently in military affairs, including for diesel-electric submarines and unmanned platforms. Critically, US restrictions on Chinese li-ion batteries or of electric vehicles, another end use of li-ion batteries, will limit China’s industrial capacity that could readily be repurposed from the civilian industry to its defense industrial base. Just as crucially, by diminishing China’s battery business, US tariffs could constrain Beijing’s ability to secure technological breakthroughs with military uses.
China’s battery complex complements its military capabilities in multiple ways. Take aerial drones, which often employ lithium-ion batteries for propulsion. These weapons are already a critical element in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as both sides are estimated to field at least 50,000 first-person-view suicide drones per month.
Drone technology could play an even larger role in any confrontation over Taiwan. Mainland China’s industrial capacity in aerial drones and batteries could loom large in any confrontation, as its manufacture of dual-use drones dwarfs production seen in both Ukraine and Russia. There are limitations to the role batteries could play in the aerial domain due to constraints in energy density and range. Still, advances in battery technology could increase the potency of aerial drones in a potential Taiwan contingency.
Batteries are also useful for unmanned underwater vessels, unmanned surface vessels and, critically, conventional (i.e. non-nuclear powered) submarines. Diesel-electric submarines are powered by batteries charged by onboard diesel generation. Those with li-ion batteries offer performance improvements over those with lead-acid batteries, including quieter operations, and higher speeds for sprinting and cruising. Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force is the only navy known to operate diesel-electric submarines with li-ion batteries.
But the possibility that China could also develop li-ion submarines is a concern. Its battery complex has made undeniable technical advances in recent years and is, in many ways, technologically ahead of advanced economies, including Japan and South Korea. It is likely only a matter of time before China’s navy develops advanced li-ion diesel-electric submarines—if it is not doing so already.
Another risk posed by China’s battery complex is its development of solid-state batteries (SSBs), which enjoy further performance advantages over li-ion batteries, including greater density, capacity, range, and no risk of fire. While SSBs have yet to be commercialized, their development could offer substantial performance improvements for both diesel-electric submarines and unmanned systems.
The massive industrial scale and growing technological sophistication of China’s battery complex could therefore not only enable Beijing to secure the commanding heights of a global industry, but also enhance its military capabilities in ways that threaten US interests.
Finding a balanced approach
Because the Chinese battery complex presents decarbonization opportunities, but also security risks for the United States and other constitutional democracies, policymakers should adopt a balanced approach to batteries, working together with allies, friends, and partners to take risk mitigation steps when necessary.
Similar to its investigation into connected vehicles, Washington should comprehensively study where batteries pose potential security risks and take countermeasures where appropriate. Given the need to decarbonize the electricity system, Washington should act against existing installations or near-term imports of Chinese batteries for grid storage only when there is a compelling reason. Despite concerns about the security of Chinese-made grid storage batteries, any efforts by China to destabilize the grid appear far more likely to emerge from offensive malware operations or China’s cryptocurrency mining assets. As an interim measure, however, the United States and its allies should increase resiliency against potential grid subversion by undertaking more spot checks of battery imports and by booting Chinese-made batteries from sensitive locations, such as military bases.
The best way to mitigate battery-related risks, however, is to develop a US and “friend-shored” supply chain. Washington, Brussels, and other allies and partners should de-risk the entirety of the battery supply chain. The coalition should focus on potential supply chain chokepoints, especially graphite, as the United States has no existing production sites for this key battery material. Fortunately, the United States has already made substantial progress on developing its battery industry, as nearly $34 billion in actual investment into battery manufacturing has occurred in 2023 alone.
But more can be done. Washington should enact policies to speed up clean energy deployment to both reduce emissions and enhance national security. This includes permitting reform, which is critical for connecting clean energy to the grid. Also, deployment of more US-made batteries could provide synergies with key defense industrial capabilities, including for unmanned platforms and manned submarines. Similarly, the United States should continue to build out its domestic charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, which are an important use for lithium-ion batteries. Finally, the United States and its treaty allies—Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines—should explore siting battery manufacturing capabilities in areas relevant for contingences involving Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Striking a responsible balance between the competing imperatives of national security, economic interests, and decarbonization is challenging. Many actors fail to grasp that multiple things can be true at once: climate change poses a massive threat to our shared global future—but so does mounting clean energy dependence on the Chinese Communist Party. US tariffs on Chinese batteries aim to take a balanced approach to managing this complicated dilemma.
Joseph Webster is a senior fellow in the Global Energy Center and the editor of the independent China-Russia Report. This article reflects his own personal opinion.
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