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It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book Hardcover – Bargain Price, August 14, 2007

by Baseball Prospectus (Author), Steven Goldman (Author)
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Pennant races are arguably the most important aspect of baseball. Players, teams, and franchises are all after one goal: to win the pennant and get into the post-season. But what really determines who wins? Statistical analyses of baseball abound: different ways of breaking down everyone’s individual performance, from hitters and pitchers to managers and even owners. But surprisingly, team success-what makes some teams winners over an entire season-has never been looked at with the same statistical rigor. In It Ain’t Over ’Til It’s Over, The Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts introduce the Davenport Method of deciding which races were the most dramatic-the closest, the most volatile-and determine the ten greatest races of modern baseball history. They use these key races (and a few others) to answer the main question: What determines who wins? How important are such things as mid-season trades, how much a manager overworks his pitchers, and why teams have winning and losing streaks? Can one player carry a team? Can one bad player ruin a team? Can one bad play ruin a team’s chances? This fascinating and illuminating book will change your perception of the game.
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  1. Print length
    480 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Basic Books
  4. Publication date
    August 14, 2007
  5. Reading age
    18 years and up
  6. Dimensions
    6.13 x 1.06 x 9.25 inches
  7. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

From the authors of the popular statistical analysis site BaseballProspectus.com comes a rare bird, a sports book that's both thoughtfully written and brimming with drama. Dissecting 13 of the most compelling, down-to-the-wire pennant races in baseball history, from the 1908 National League to the 2003 National League Central, the authors first use flowing, novelistic prose to detail what happened, and then their own statistical formulae to illuminate why the race ended as it did. Regular readers of Baseball Prospectus will find some of this book repetitive, such as lengthy comparisons between teams from different eras, but there is much here for fans of all interest levels. One chapter examines the development of the modern farm system, while another illustrates how failure to integrate crippled some franchises for decades. Along the way, myths are debunked (infamous goat Fred Merkle gets acquitted, having been victimized by the inconsistent umpiring common in the early 1900s) and legends are re-examined (would Bobby Thompson have hit his "Shot Heard Round the World" if Dodger manager Charlie Dressen hadn't been in "a kind of fugue state throughout that ninth inning"?). With clear prose and surprising wit, this book is a perfect end-of-summer read for fans.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Booklist

If you are a baseball fan, there's a high probability you are a nerd for statistics. You may even know about baseballprospectus.com, a stats site in which irreverent humor exists in perfect harmony with sometimes impossibly complex mathematical formulas. For those who don't know the site, here's the perfect introduction: a statistical analysis of the 10 greatest pennant races in baseball history, as determined by the Davenport method. Along with the statistics behind the selections, the contributors identify the key players on each team, set the context (on the way up or down), and describe the key moments in each pennant race. More importantly, they provide reasons for the surges and/or the collapses. Included are the Philadelphia Phillies collapse in 1964, the Boston Red Sox miracle in 1967, and the Detroit Tigers half-game victory over the Red Sox in 1972. Baseball Prospectus is a popular brand name, and this may be its most easily accessible book for the casual fan. And since it's examining the past rather than predicting the future, it has a long, long shelf life. Don't miss it. Lukowsky, Wes

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ B001G7RA5E
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Basic Books; First Edition (August 14, 2007)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 480 pages
  • Reading age ‏ : ‎ 18 years and up
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.7 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.13 x 1.06 x 9.25 inches
  • Customer Reviews:

Customer reviews

3.7 out of 5 stars
3.7 out of 5
11 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Michael L. Slavin
4.0 out of 5 stars Plenty Of Data
Reviewed in the United States on October 27, 2008
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As would be expected coming from the statistical Baseball Prospectus group this entry is chock full of data and analysis concerning a number of past close pennant races. Thirteen seasons are discussed. There are plenty of what might have been type discussions. Sprinkled thruout is much talk about the effects of racial integration in baseball. There are by my count twelve contributors to the book. Some of the chapters have multiple authors. This allows for some uneveness in content. But, all in all, it's definitely a worthwhile read.
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WDX2BB
3.0 out of 5 stars Not for everyone
Reviewed in the United States on December 16, 2012
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It starts with an interesting idea. Take the boys and girls (those words are used fondly) who put together the annual Baseball Prospectus book, and sick them on pennant races of the past. How did the 1967 Boston Red Sox and 1959 Los Angeles Dodgers win? How did the 1964 Philadelphia Phillies lose? Mix in a few relevant essays, and you have a book.

Yes, but do you have a good book? In spots, yes, very much so. In others, less so.

There are all sorts of books on pennant races out there. The idea is to provide some perspective and new information, possibly through statistics.

For example, editor Steve Goldman points out that the Yankees gave the Indians an opening in 1948 when they weren't quite as good as usual, and Cleveland marched through the gap to a pennant. A reason was that the Indians were willing to add African-American talent, thus briefly closing the talent gap between them and the Yankees. Of course, New York compensated within a year.

For example, Clifford Corcoran writes about the 1964 pennant race, and shows just how good Dick Allen was that year. Allen even turned it up a couple of notches during the Phillies' famous collapse. (By the way, Allen Barra writes a spirited essay on Allen's status as one of the most underrated and misunderstood players in baseball history -- it's a little over the top, but interesting.)

The essay on the demise of the Yankees in the 1970's/80's was particularly interesting. Goldman uses Otto Velez as an example of a young player who should have been a star but was always the odd man out because he was young. As a result, he got shuffled around eventually lost to Toronto, letting some potential go unfilled. The Yankees' drafting record is none too good in that era.

Other chapters aren't quite as interesting. For example, Alex Belth delivers a straight-forward review of the 1973 National League season, won by the Mets at 82-79 -- the worst championship season to date, relatively speaking. It's more history than analysis, if you understand my idea at the difference -- not badly done by any means, but not what I'm looking for in a book like this.

In addition, some of the essays are heavily into charts and statistics. There are some valid points to be made here, such as one that points out how attendance drops after September 1 although the decline has been slowed with the introduction of wild-cards. Still, some might not wade through a graph that has "percentage of games with TPRI of 3 Percent of Higher."

This gets something of a split decision, then. For those familiar with Baseball Prospectus (a worthwhile purchase every spring for big baseball fans), "It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over" works pretty well with some good analysis and insights. For those who aren't, readers might get a little bogged down in some unfamiliar stats or too-familiar history in spots.
One person found this helpful
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Avid Reader
3.0 out of 5 stars A Second-Place Finish
Reviewed in the United States on January 3, 2008
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As the other reviewers have indicated, this book is full of choice details and interesting analysis about some of baseball's great pennant races and memorable teams, players, coaches, and managers. However, the book is badly edited and poorly written at times -- the price paid for trying to quickly slap together contributions from numerous contributors.

I think the book also suffers from confusion about whether it is aimed at the serious baseball fan or the casual fan. There's a lot of advanced baseball analysis terminology and numerology in the book that is familiar to the perhaps 200,000 people who are fascinated by sabermetrics. But the authors want to cast a wider net, so they spend a fair amount of time explaining these concepts to the newcomers in the audience. Trying to serve two audiences weakens the flow for those of us who already are on the bandwagon.

Yet, the book has significant strengths. The stories of how certain teams were built and reached their pinnacle during a particular pennant race (or staved off collapse for one more year) are frequently compelling. In fact, they're stronger than the data and statistics, which is usually BP's strength. I'm not a softie for the stories about a particular player's "manhood" or "ability to play in pain" or whatever, but this book highlights those achievements without being hyperbolic about it.

In conclusion, it's a decent addition to my baseball library, but far from a grand slam.
5 people found this helpful
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Terrence L.
2.0 out of 5 stars a disappointment
Reviewed in the United States on September 17, 2007
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This book contains several factual errors, most notably in the chapters on the 1967 AL race and the 1972 AL East race (including a continual misspelling of Denny McLain's name). Given the number of easily-found mistakes in this book, one starts wondering if there are other errors embedded in the statistical analyses that aren't readily apparent. Many of the chapters also skim the surface and don't delve into issues surrounding teams that didn't win; for example, the chapter on the 1964 NL race just about ignores the Reds, arguably the best team in the league that year (and the team with the highest Pythagorean won-lost mark, presuming they did the math right), led by a manager dying of cancer. In short, this book was a bit of disappointment, and certainly not Baseball Prospectus' best work; there are still some neat things in here, but this book is not worth paying full price for.
7 people found this helpful
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