Democratic hopes for another term in the White House are slipping away, according to a new poll that shows presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump pulling away from President Joe Biden.
The Cygnal poll of likely general election voters showed in a head-to-head matchup, Trump was the choice of 48% compared to 43% for Biden. Trump’s (44%) lead over Biden (38%) grew to 6 points if the race was expanded to include minor candidates, including independent Robert F. Kennedy who polled at 7%. Trump’s advantage was 2 percentage points as recently as June.
Pollsters noted the “political environment has severely degraded for Democrats” since the Biden debate performance at the end of June. The fallout impacted the Congressional landscape as well, with a generic ballot moving from even to plus 4 for Republicans, the largest single month-over-month movement in the history of Cygnal’s national poll. The Congressional shift was led by Democrats who went from plus 5 in favor of Democrats to plus 7 for Republicans.
Both candidates are upside down in their approval ratings, though Trump fares much better. Slightly less than 55% said they disapproved of Trump compared to 44% who viewed him favorably, a net unfavorability of negative 11. Biden, however, has a net unfavorability rating of negative 26 – 62% unfavorability compared to 35% favorability.
Vice President Kamala Harris polled poorly as well, with a 58% unfavorability rating and 35% favorable rating, for a net of negative 23.
More than 66% of those polled said they watched the June 27 debate in which Biden seemed to be lost at times and struggled over his words, leading to a growing chorus calling for him to step aside. An additional 22% said they followed the debate afterward. Sixty-two percent said Trump won the debate compared to 18% for Biden.
The Cygnal poll was conducted July 1-2 among 1,500 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.