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2023, La Razon
1. What has triggered the escalation yesterday in Nagorno Karabakh? Azerbaijan stated that it launched its military offensive to disarm and force to withdraw the Armenian forces from this breakaway region populated predominantly by ethnic Armenians. But this was the latest escalation of a long-running armed conflict in Nagorno Karabakh. This separatist region of Azerbaijan became de-facto independent following a defeat of Azerbaijan in the first Nagorno Karabakh war in 1994 by Armenian and separatist Karabakh forces. But Azerbaijan turned the tide in the conflict in the new war in 2020 after using its oil and natural gas revenues to acquire weapons and rearm its military forces. Because it now has military advantage, Azerbaijan decided to break a Russian-negotiated ceasefire and use its military force to take control over this separatist region. 2. Actually, the escalation yesterday raised concerns that a full-scale war in the region could resume between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Is the conflict over after the cease-fire deal? There was a real possibility of such a war. But the Armenian government decided that it has little chance of defeating or even containing Azeri forces in Nagorno Karabakh and that Armenia could even loose its own territory in case of such a new war. The new ceasefire deal basically amounts to the end of the de facto independence of Nagorno Karabakh. Most ethnic Armenians would be likely forced to leave Nagorno Karabakh. The Armenian president already earlier this year recognized Nagorno Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan. But the broader Armenian-Azeri conflict most likely won’t end. 3. Both, Armenia and Azerbaijan are supported by regional powers. What does Turkey and Russia gain in this conflict respectively? Russia was traditional ally of Armenia going back to the Ottoman Empire and the genocide of Armenians. Russia put its peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh following a 2020 cease-fire deal that it negotiated. But relations between Russia and Armenia now significantly deteriorated. The Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan tried to distance from Russia and gain support in the EU and the US. The Russian influence in Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia would suffer a hit following the de facto capitulation of Nagorno Karabakh that Russia negotiated. In contrast, Turkey is likely to gain geopolitically because it is a major ally of Azerbaijan and backed it in the 2020 war and the latest offensive politically and by supplying weapons. 4. Can Ilham Aliyev invade directly Armenia? Is it on his plans/discourses? There is such a possibility. Aliev raised repeatedly the issue of securing a corridor to connect the rest of Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan region, which is separated by the Armenian territory. But an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan is likely to be much more problematic for Azerbaijan than the conflict in Nagorno Karabakh because it could trigger a military involvement of Russia under the CSTO treaty and even a military involvement of neighboring Iran.
The Renewal of the Armenian- Azerbaijani Military Conflict - an Initial Analysis After the First Month of the Nagorno-Karabakh War
The Renewal of the Armenian- Azerbaijani Military Conflict - an Initial Analysis After the First Month of the Nagorno-Karabakh War2020 •
The resurgence of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war conflict in September 2020 raises a number of interesting and important issues. In my analysis, I argue that Russia, firmly opposing the escalation, has the greatest influence on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and not Turkey, a member of NATO, which is intervening on the side of Azerbaijan. Moscow has a number of tools at its disposal to counter it. Hopefully, a long lasting, large-scale war with many military, civilian casualties and great destruction could be avoided. Substantial negotiations between the opposing parties and a compromise concerning the settlement of the conflict would be very much needed. In the most likely military scenario, Russia will provide effective assistance to Armenia, so Azerbaijani war efforts to change the status quo in Karabakh will sooner or later fail. Russia, however, is unlikely to intervene in the war directly and admittedly, unless it becomes inevitable.
Stopovereurope.eu
NAGORNO-KARABAKH: NO LONGER A FROZEN CONFLICT2020 •
On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched the new war against Artsakh and Armenia, with the support of Turkey and the involvement of the foreign terrorist fighters. France, Russia, Iran, and the USA confirmed the fact that Azerbaijan involved the Syrian mercenaries in the war against Artsakh and Armenia. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia repeatedly states that the Azerbaijani Army is targeting the civilian settlements and using weapons banned under international humanitarian law. It needs to highlight that the following clashes with Artsakh, Azerbaijani authorities have restricted internet use inside the country, in particular access to social media. In contrast, the authorities of Artsakh announced that until January 2021, the mobile and internet connection in the country will be free of charge.
Due to its unprecedented scale, some commentators have termed the escalation of violence in early April along the Line of Contact in Nagorno-Karabakh the April War of 2016. In fact, the recent fighting saw an unprecedented involvement of heavy military technology – including tanks, armored vehicles, aviation, and drones – alongside hundreds, perhaps even thousands, of military personnel in multiple locations simultaneously. Having cost the lives of up to a hundred people on both sides of the frontline, the April War has challenged some common wisdoms that have held since the 1990s.
Nagorno-territory Karabakh's is internationally recognized as an integral part of Azerbaijan, which controls the Armenian-ethnic population. The unresolved territorial dispute between two states, "Armenia and Azerbaijan," over the Nagorno-Karabakh region is the most dangerous threat to the security of the South Caucasus and neighbouring states. The novel ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan was brokered unilaterally by Russia, with the major regional actors excluded. As a result, the Armenian masses were outraged, and the territory's legal status remained ambiguous. For decades, the regional confrontation significantly altered geopolitical and geostrategic circumstances, as well as regional and non-regional actors' efforts to reach a comprehensive resolution. In this context, Turkey has a favorable impact on the entire region as a transit energy state, serving as a bridge to the West due to its distinctive location. With the participation of major regional stakeholders, the frozen conflict can easily be transformed into a new cycle of violence. This research aimed to analyze the role of regional actors in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and explore their geopolitical and geostrategic interests of regional and great powers by using secondary sources of data and seeking a solution to the conflict.
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the surrounding districts has been ongoing for over 30 years. Azerbaijan seeks to maintain its territorial integrity and free its internationally recognized territories from occupation, while Armenia insists on self-determination for Karabakh Armenians. The conflict flared up in July 2020, resulting in deaths and protests in Azerbaijan. In November 2020, a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia confirmed Azerbaijan's victory, but tensions remain high due to ongoing disputes over border demarcation. Russia has deployed a peacekeeping force in Karabakh, and Turkey has agreed to a military presence in Azerbaijan. The conflict's geographic location has made it a focal point for nations with political and strategic interests in the region, increasing regional security complexity in the Caucasus.
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