Rhodium Group

China’s economic policymaking process appears broken, or at the very least impaired. Read the latest analysis from Rhodium's Logan Wright:

At COP28, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, a formidable challenge given that fossil fuels deliver two-thirds of total global energy demand today. Thanks to the past few decades of policy and technology innovation, we’re on track to dramatically reduce fossil fuel use in power and road transport through mid-century. However, fossil use in industry, aviation, and shipping is slated to remain stubbornly high or grow in the same timeframe. Our latest assesses the drivers of global fossil fuel demand in the coming decades: https://lnkd.in/g5EGMuXs

With the release of a new tranche of rules last October, the United States was asserting its role as the de facto regulator of the global semiconductor industry. What's in those rules? Our analysis:

Following several years of historic investments in US climate progress, additional policies could put the US 2030 Paris Agreement target within reach. However, there’s a long way to go to get on track for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. In new analysis, we identify the key sources of remaining emissions in 2030, much of which comes from sectors that have been less of a focus to date. Light-duty vehicles, the power sector, and residential and commercial buildings remain the top emitting sectors in 2030, despite some decarbonization gains, while other sources like freight trucks, chemical production, and natural gas systems increase their overall share of emissions contributions. https://lnkd.in/gKaXhg8M

History suggests that slowing economic growth tends to negatively affect innovation funding and capacity. The trend could be even more acute in China, where local governments, which play an outsized role in science and technology funding, find themselves under intense fiscal pressure.

China's National Bureau of Statistics announced today that the country's economy grew 5.2% in 2023. But if you look past the headline GDP numbers, there are plenty of smaller, more granular datasets that allow analysts to check the math. Based on that, a realistic growth figure for China in 2023 is probably closer to 1.5%. Read how we get to this figure:

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As China's economy slows, Beijing will have to make tough decisions on what sectors to prioritize in its pursuit of innovation.

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In 2023, the US experienced something it hasn’t since before the COVID-19 pandemic: a growing economy paired with shrinking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. After two years of emissions growth, while the country rebounded from the pandemic and its associated economic disruptions, we estimate that emissions were down 1.9% year-on-year in 2023, while the economy expanded by 2.4% over the course of the year. US emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels and dropped to 17.2% below 2005 levels. A relatively mild winter and declining generation from coal power plants drove down emissions in the power and buildings sectors, while transportation and industrial sector emissions rose slightly. A decline in economy-wide emissions is a step in the right direction, but that rate of decline needs to more than triple and sustain at that level every year from 2024 through 2030 in order to meet the US’s climate target under the Paris Agreement of a 50-52% reduction in emissions. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/emGy3Zzc