I’ve been making the case for Joe Biden for a long time. In 2017, when many Democrats presumed a progressive form of populism was the antidote to then-President Donald Trump, I wrote for Politico that Biden could snag the party’s presidential nomination as “the voice of anti-populism.” Soon after he entered the presidential primary in the spring of 2019, I argued his early poll lead was not illusory, and his embrace of bipartisanship was not delusional. And I’ve credited Biden with following through on his campaign pledge to restore bipartisanship in Washington, which is how he racked up wins on infrastructure, Ukraine aid, the debt limit, semiconductor manufacturing, gun safety, and even postal service reform.
I’ve also been making the case against ageism for just as long, defending Nancy Pelosi in 2017 from critics who thought a fresh face was needed for Democrats to win back the House and in 2018 from those who thought she shouldn’t reclaim the Speaker’s gavel once they did. More recently, I’ve argued that throughout American history, ageist attacks on elderly presidential candidates have fallen flat.
So, I wasn’t inclined to say that Biden couldn’t win because of his advanced age. Last year, I argued the opposite—as with every other incumbent in the past 100 years, Biden was likely to be re-elected as long as the economy kept improving, which it has.
But the CNN debate and Biden’s feeble attempts at damage control after the debate have irrevocably altered the political landscape. The risk of continuing the campaign is too great. Biden should withdraw.
This is a different argument than the one I made a week ago, immediately after the debate, when I said Biden had time to redeem himself with “more public questioning and … convincing reassurances.”
The problem is that Biden wasted that time, avoiding unscripted public events for seven days after the debate debacle, save for a couple of radio interviews that aired yesterday. Now he’s farther behind in the polls with no clear path to recovery.
He allowed seven days of public panic and additional reporting about troubling lapses to seep into voter consciousness unchallenged. The only explanation for his poor debate performance he offered during this critical period was at a private fundraiser, pointing to a grueling travel schedule to Europe and California earlier in June. This was the opposite of reassuring since he had gone to Camp David for several days to recuperate.
In turn, most post-debate polls show slippage, with Donald Trump posting his biggest leads to date in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal polls—six points each. On Wednesday, The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein posted on X that “I am now aware of post-debate Democratic (or interest group) polls that have Biden down 6-7 in each of MI/PA/WI, states he likely needs to sweep to win.”
A determined optimist could take solace in Biden’s deficit in various national poll averages which, as of Wednesday, are a more manageable 2 to 3 points. But this still is slippage from where the president stood before the debate. And, as I reminded Monthly readers on Tuesday, he was already behind before the debate. The whole reason Biden proposed holding a debate as early as June was to defuse the age issue and get ahead in the polls. Without the boost from a good debate performance, the catalyst for his recovery is elusive.
Yes, Biden is sitting for an extended interview with ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos and conducting campaign trips to battleground states today and Sunday, plus holding a press conference during next week’s NATO summit in Washington. Could Biden perform better at these events? Possibly. Might that help regain ground in polls? Hypothetically, yes, but there is more reason for pessimism now than a week ago.
A deeply reported New York Times story based on interviews with those who had recent interactions with Biden in private settings said that in recent “weeks and months,” the president “increasingly appeared confused or listless, or would lose the thread of conversations.” The article made clear that the 81-year-old was still making effective decisions, such as when he personally pressured Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu to refrain from an escalatory strike on Iran. But in Europe, “at some points, he seemed perfectly on top of his game, at others a little lost.”
The inconsistent picture hampers Biden’s ability to reassure with one or two strong public performances. After any “good day,” many people will have reason to worry more “bad days” will follow.
At this point, Biden probably needs to string together many consecutive days of strong public performances to make the debate a distant memory. But Biden, for decades, has been known as a “gaffe machine.” The chances of further slips are high. No matter how minor, each flub will be magnified by Trump to instill fear—more credibly than ever—of further deterioration over the next four years.
Even in a best-case scenario, in which Biden does unscripted error-free events through the following week, we won’t know if the better performances were enough to buoy Biden’s polls numbers for another week or two after that. Democrats will be paralyzed with uncertainty while Trump and the Republicans kick into high gear with their mid-July convention.
Running a presidential campaign is never easy. It is a Herculean challenge for a candidate to start one about three months before Election Day. Biden should not wait until the Democratic convention to decide on withdrawal. (The in-person convention is scheduled for mid-August, but Democrats plan to formally nominate its presidential candidate at a virtual meeting in late July or early August.) Biden must give whoever would replace him as much time as possible to mount an organized campaign.
Vice President Kamala Harris is the most logical option and one Democrats need not fret over. While the Republican smear machine has caricatured her for years, they would do a similar number on any Democrat topping the ticket. Harris, at least, has been toughened up by the experience, as evidenced by her steady post-debate media and campaign appearances. And in CNN’s most recent poll, Harris matches up better with Trump than Biden or any other Democrat tested.
As a poignant capstone to his extensive public career, after already helping elect the first person of color to the presidency, Biden can literally elevate the first woman of color to the presidency by resigning the office. As my colleague, Matthew Cooper, has articulated, “If Biden withdraws from the race but does not resign, the nation, the press, and America’s adversaries will have little reason to assume his governing abilities remain sufficiently unimpaired.”
Biden could do this during the Republican convention and obliterate Trump’s ability to dominate media coverage for the week.
Democrats could still hold an open convention in August if anyone wanted to challenge President Harris’s nomination on the floor. But most potential candidates may see peril in claiming they are more qualified than the African-American and Indian-American woman who has been by Biden’s side for three-and-a-half years. Moreover, nearly all Democrats will likely be eager to focus on defeating Trump instead of turning on each other.
And while I can’t predict the future, I suspect many Americans will feel relief and rejuvenation at the prospect of a poised, energetic, and cogent option on their presidential ballots. Harris may enter the race with low expectations but is well-positioned to clear them. Of the two people who head the Biden-Harris administration, she is the more capable of articulating how they cleaned up the mess left behind by the Trump administration.
I have argued that following his felony conviction, Trump should withdraw. The convicted felon, of course, does not have enough character to let someone without a criminal record carry the Republican banner.
Biden, however, is a person of character. He is also one of the most politically astute people to ever run for office. Walking away from the office he fought so hard to win and accepting his limitations in his final years may be his greatest challenge in a lifetime of challenges. In twilight, he must also see that standing down is how, one last time, he can save America from the dark night of authoritarianism.
