Michael Liebreich

For every euro invested in renewables, the #EU needs to invest 50 cents into grid infrastructure. In Asia, I imagine that ratio will be higher, at least 1:1. Solar and wind capacity has grown to ~50% of #grid peak loads, and will edge towards 100% as renewables capacity increases. That represents a conservative investment of ~US$2.5 trillion ($2t for grids, $0.5t for storage) over the next decade, according to Wood Mac. #Renewables + older grids is like trying to eat soup with a teaspoon. Technically, it works, but if you could use a tablespoon or even a soup spoon (!) it'd be far more efficient. In Europe you might see #curtailment (energy that the grid can't use because of overcapacity - wasted energy) of ~2.5-3%, in China ~4%, in Vietnam that figure could be as high as 50% for some projects. Most developers expect/tolerate some curtailment (~3%), but the higher the curtailment the worse the projects economics - meaning financing is harder and/or more expensive. The obstacles and solutions are well-known. Better market designs, centralised planning, and an increase in the amount and speed of capital deployment (perhaps enhanced with private capital) can ensure that Asia's grids 1) accelerate electricity accesssibility, and 2) minimise any wastage.

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NEW REPORT on GB Energy, and the role of the state by @nesta_uk and @Baringa. This work underpins some of what is being announced today. 🧵 https://lnkd.in/eD75Rw3j Report argues for 4 enhanced roles for the state: first, as a planner or 'system architect', second, as a 'pre-developer'; third, as investor; fourth as enabler. What benefits will this bring? 1) Speed: offshore wind deployed 2 to 4 years faster due to enhanced coordination and efficiencies in project development and deployment. 2) A transfer of up to £35bn from producers to consumers out to 2050 for offshore wind alone 3) Savings of up to c. £1bn in regret development expenditure for offshore wind projects that ultimately fail, with similar benefits possible for onshore projects. 4) A reduction in constraint costs which are projected to reach £3bn per year in the late 2020s. 5) Greater certainty for supply chain, leading to more investment and domestic capacity. 6) More efficient and resilient deployment of network infrastructure and system assets, reducing total cost. 7) Acceleration of innovation and commercialisation of new technologies.

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There has been quite a reaction to my comments at All-Energy Exhibition and Conference in Glasgow last week about trade issues and the role of Chinese suppliers in the Energy Transition. My primary plea was for the topic to be discussed in an informed and balanced way and that mostly seems to have been the case (Jeremy Grant’s piece below in the Scotsman being a good example). This is a complex topic, with no easy answers. It is likely to require trade-offs and concessions. So, the more we can openly and calmly discuss, the more likely we are to make informed decisions about what those concessions might mean. I think it would be good to convene some further discussion on this topic later in the year, amongst key industry players and international trade experts. Perhaps it is something Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) as a neutral global body could help facilitate? If you are interested to participate in such an event, please let me know. In the meantime, as a few people have asked, here is a link to the Report prepared by Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) that discusses supply chain constraints and suggests that trade barriers would be likely to delay the Energy Transition and make it more expensive. https://lnkd.in/e96Gnrfz Thanks for engaging in this topic!

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Among the many subtextual stories to emerge following the Labour Party (UK)'s landslide election victory is the impact the government's plans for national #cleanenergy company #GBEnergy could have in boosting development of the country's flagship industrial-scale #floatingwind projects. Here, in Recharge , Corio Generation CEO Jonathan Cole's understated view: 'Those projects might find a source of capital they don't otherwise have. That could be useful.' https://lnkd.in/e6waJbJf RenewableUK WORLD FORUM OFFSHORE WIND (WFO) Scottish Renewables International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Floating Wind Days Floating Wind Solutions FOWT Conference #offshorewind #decarbonization #oceanindustries #newnorthsea #energytranstion #netzero #offshoreenergy

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Dedicated Energy Hubs Needed to Transform Scotland into Leading Hydrogen Producer   The Net Zero Technology Centre (NZTC), has today [27 June 2024] launched its ‘Energy Hubs: Fill the Backbone’ report, providing recommendations that will help scale Scotland’s hydrogen production potential and establish itself as a leading exporter of green hydrogen through the development of large-scale energy hubs. 🔽 Find more info in comments below 🔽 #EnergyHubs #Scotland #HydrogenProduction #CleanEnergy #RenewableEnergy #GreenHydrogen #OilandGas #RenewableEnergy #GreenEnergy ⤵️ Click Follow on our page to keep up to date with energy news ⤵️

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“Speculative and duplicate applications” are creating “phantom” #renewableenergy projects that are holding back efforts to #decarbonise the #UK #grid: Cornwall Insight RenewableUK WindEurope Scottish Renewables International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) #windpower #solarpower #energystorage

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Partner's News The Energy Hubs – Fill the Backbone report by Hydrogen Scotland member Net Zero Technology Centre highlights the emerging opportunity to export green hydrogen from Scotland into the expanding hydrogen market in Europe. Economic modelling indicates that a 10 GW scale Energy Hub in Scotland producing green hydrogen from floating offshore wind could produce hydrogen for £3.90/kg. To capitalise on this opportunity, Scotland will need to develop strategic Energy Hubs in time to meet this growing demand. https://lnkd.in/gPJgp5SC

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#offshorewind | GB Energy -- Somebody help me understand. I'm struggling to see what problem GB Energy is solving. Clearly there is greater investor hesitancy in offshore wind than 2-3 years ago (when everyone was piling in). But surely still ample capital chasing projects. Is GB Energy going to be some kind of anchor investor on newer tech to de-risk private investments? Is there really a shortage of private capital in all the listed newer technologies? Port investment makes sense (I'm no expert in their investment structures), where government could take a longer-term view on demand for floating wind than the lumpier volume short-term. The collab with the Crown Estate just looks like a more complicated version of the Dutch model. My worry here is trying to fix something -- U.K. offshore wind -- that isn't broken. Yes, it could be build quicker (like everything energy transition) but is GB Energy the solution?! It doesn't look like it is about to pull grid connections and faster planning out of a hat. And it will probably have to accept lower than market returns to be competitive in any auction/tender with an experienced incumbent. https://lnkd.in/dXTFXAQN

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Will watch the setup of GB Energy with interest. If done well then it could undoubtedly be a good thing, which is why we need to engage with it constructively. However, of equally strategic importance is a hostile state building their largest European turbine manufacturing site in Scotland. New ministers should, at the very least, put the entire project on pause. Article from May 👇🏻 https://lnkd.in/ecKan6t3

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US Carbon Market Principles: A Critical Take 🔍 The new principles for voluntary carbon markets by the US Administration have been well received. But beyond the applause, what do these guidelines really mean? Where do they shine and where do they fall short? Here’s my take: Why it matters: 💠 The largest corporate buyers are in the US. 💠 Fortune 500: $46.4 trillion market cap, with 65% US-based—significant clout for driving climate action. Where it exceeds expectations: ✅ "High-Integrity" Markets: Strong focus on transparency and accountability to combat greenwashing. ✅ Comprehensive Approach: Emphasizes the need for both avoidance and removals, highlighting the urgency of scaling nature-based solutions and fostering tech innovation. ✅ Robust Verification: Calls for stringent verification to ensure credits represent real emission reductions. ✅ Inclusivity and Equity: Involves local communities and indigenous groups, ensuring benefits for those most affected by climate change. Where it falls short: ❔ Economic Impact: Optimistic about job creation and innovation but lacks specifics on implementation. ❔ Detail Deficiency: Strong on principles, but needs more on enforcement and monitoring. ❔ Global Leadership: Positions the US as a leader but lacks emphasis on international collaboration and setting global standards. Overall, the guidelines are strong on integrity and inclusivity but need more detail on enforcement and global cooperation. I’ll be posting more on where we go from here tomorrow. 👉🏼 Follow my profile for part 2 and more posts on carbon markets and natural capital investing. Read the full fact sheet from The White House below: https://lnkd.in/ghKfRV4A #voluntarycarbonmarkets #naturalcapital #carboncredits

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My Podcast is up on Hardman and Co, under the EIS Navigator page: The EIS Navigator podcast is for those interested in the UK venture capital industry, particularly the areas that are supported by government schemes. These include the Enterprise Investment Scheme, EIS, Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme, or SEIS, and Venture Capital Trusts. This means we are looking at small, growth companies – often at the startup stage. We interview leading people in the industry, whether fund managers, company founders or experts from other service providers. The aim is to dig deeply into topics, getting away from the promotional material that predominates elsewhere. Venture capital investing is a long-term endeavour and we will focus on topics that are relevant at any time. https://lnkd.in/ez7rqiAk.

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There's much we can learn from what counterparts are doing in other countries. I was therefore pleased to get the chance to speak about UK energy policy, the energy transition and the implications for gas networks at a conference recently held by GRDF. There are obviously differences between the UK and French energy system. There are also clear areas for us to co-operate and learn however, most obviously on how we increase the amount of low-carbon biomethane brought on to the system and how we can use digitalisation to both reduce costs and improve performance. A very worthwhile session and one I look forward to building on. #energy #gas #biogas #biomethane #digitalisation #energytransition

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Labour's latest manifesto introduces GB Energy (page 47), a bold and transformative plan designed to revolutionise the energy sector and drive the UK towards a sustainable future. Or just a load of hot air that’s not going to drive the 4-fold increase in planned offshore wind by 2030.   While the vision is bold and inspiring, I have significant concerns about the lack of concrete details given.   1. The idea of a publicly-owned energy company sounds promising, but details on implementation, governance, and accountability are missing. How will this new entity operate within the existing energy market? 2. While the manifesto aims to provide affordable clean energy, it lacks specifics on pricing models, subsidies, or how it will compete with private energy companies. How will GB Energy ensure lower costs for consumers without compromising on service quality? 3. Enhancing energy security is crucial, but what are the strategies for maintaining consistent energy supply and resilience against global market fluctuations? 4. It talks about increasing gas fired generation for security, whilst not issuing any new licences to explore new fields and a total ban on fracking. So when its not windy or sunny we are back to competing on a global gas market. 5. Ambitious climate targets are commendable, but the manifesto doesn't outline concrete steps, milestones, or policies to achieve these goals. How does Labour plan to track and report progress on carbon emissions reductions?   While the vision behind GB Energy is undoubtedly forward-thinking, the lack of detailed planning and actionable strategies raises questions about its feasibility.   For a proposal of this magnitude, we need more than just lofty goals - we need a clear roadmap. What are your thoughts on the practicality of GB Energy?

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Thanks Joel Makower for sharing. If you agree with the sentence below, current equity valuations are completely off and investors are at the most unique point, having the opportunity to invest on key solutions at depressed valuations, while facing the risk of complete collapse on the BAU names. "While policy can slow or accelerate it, nothing can now stop it. The carbon bubble will burst, the market will respond, and the fossil fuel industry will enter terminal decline. While the industry will still exist in a decade, its decline will be widely accepted and reflected in valuations."

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🌍 **Special Episode Alert: The Carbon Exposure Project Podcast** 🌍 We're excited to bring you a special episode of the Carbon Exposure Project. 🎙️ Today, we're joined by Patrick Greenfield an Environment reporter from The Guardian. Patrick's in-depth coverage of carbon markets has sparked significant debate and shaped much of the public discourse over the past 18 months. This phenomenon, often termed the “Guardian effect,” mirrors the increased media scrutiny from outlets like DIE ZEIT, The New Yorker and Bloomberg, all highlighting integrity issues in carbon markets. Due to this intensified scrutiny, many customer-facing companies are now hesitant to engage with the Voluntary Carbon Market, fearing critical media coverage. In this episode, Patrick provides an unfiltered view of his investigative work. While our discussion dives into many contentious areas and we often find ourselves in disagreement, it stands as a testament to thoughtful and respectful dialogue. 📢 **Key Highlights:** - An unfiltered, 80-minute interview with Patrick Greenfield - Exploration of the "Guardian effect" and its impact on carbon markets - Discussion on the integrity of carbon markets We want to emphasize—unlike traditional media, this podcast does not editorialize. Our goal is to offer honest conversations about the complexities of carbon markets, allowing you, our listeners, to hear everything firsthand and form your own informed opinions. We hope you find this episode enlightening and encourage you to share your thoughts with us. 🎧 Full episode links below: 🟢 Spotify: https://lnkd.in/g-tp8K-8 🟢 YouTube: https://lnkd.in/g3Swpk2Z #CarbonExposureProject #Podcast #ClimateChange #CarbonMarkets #EnvironmentalJournalism #GuardianEffect #SustainableFuture #ThoughtfulDialogue #VCM #CarbonCredits #NetZero

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Carbon pricing works, it seems (i.e. has positive effects on emissions). According to the study 5-21% reduction. Ideally we should encourage regulation that pushes for more accurate (in this case, higher) prices to stimulate both funding of decarbonisation of value chains, AND Nature Based Solutions (NBS) related projects. "the empirical data shows, among other things, that the introduction of carbon pricing ........has had an above-average effect on the emissions balance" https://lnkd.in/eR6sa_wa

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A happy father's day to all... more climate tech funding! Octopus Energy’s valuation increases to $9B Existing shareholders Generation Investment Management and CANADA PENSION PLAN Investment Board (CPP Investments) increase their stakes in the business. The investment will increase Octopus Energy Group’s profile in the USA, fueling the company’s plans to extend its Kraken technology into American markets, having signed the first deal in Texas in 2023. Creandum closes €500M fund for early-stage investments Will invest in seed and early-stage startups across Europe. The new fund, Creandum VII, has received contributions from 30 global LPs, with over half of the capital originating from investors based in the US. Plans to fund 35 to 40 startups at the seed and Series A stages, focusing on European tech, especially in the early stages. Pollination Launches $150M Fund to Back Climate and Nature Solutions The new fund aims to invest in standout companies in “net zero disruption” areas, including energy management, clean industries and transport, food and agriculture, carbon and nature management, and circular economy. Investments are expected to be in the range of $4 million – $12 million, and targeting Series A and B-stage companies, with a focus on Australian and selected OECD opportunities. Good to see more new funds coming in to support Seed to Series B. Sources in comments as usual. #venturecapital #greentech #sustainability #innovation #energy

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