Caleb Parker

According to CBRE, UK commercial real estate values have dropped by circa 22%. "The smaller-scale properties will probably get away, but larger-scale ones, like big business parks and shopping centres across London and even some of the other regions, are seeing much more of a dent in their valuations," says James McGregor from P10 Financial Group. With down valuations sending shivers down investors' spine, and £71bn of outstanding commercial loans due to be refinanced in the next 12 months, how will this impact the commercial real estate and lending markets? For the latest issue of the B&C Magazine, we set out to answer this burning questions, with the help of several commercial property finance experts — including Tanya Elmaz from Together - loans, mortgages & finance, Paul Goodman from Goodman Corporate Finance, Mike Davies from YBS Commercial Mortgages, Simon Jackson FRICS from Capital Value Surveyors Limited, Adrian Bailey from Enra Specialist Finance, Narinder Gill from Coreco, Hiten Ganatra from Mortimer Street Capital, James Nunn from Octopus Real Estate, James McGregor from P10 Financial Group and Edward Matthews from MERA Investment Management. Read the full cover story in the latest B&C Magazine: https://lnkd.in/dbQimRW6

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I didn't see this panel, but here are my thoughts on the summary and the ever brilliamt Michael Keaveney's observation: Land - plenty of that. Particularly when you look at what the NHS, MoD and other public bodies own Money - plenty of that, albeit a 4.5% yield on housing is less attractive when rates are this high for this long. But the point is, it's there. Skills - this is the only of the three that's a true hurdle. We saw a mini U-uturn last week on student visas (must be the second or third time). But, due to a mix of corruption, lethargy and self-interest (on the part of the construction industry); together with a bucket-load of policy failings in education (we saw the record low apprenticeship figures this week) and innovation (why has there been no proper, long-term plan and support for offsite manufacturing, for example?), skills remain a huge issue. It comes down to trade offs though, doesn't it? And it strikes me as perverse that so many intelligent people are afraid to state the obvious solution: immigration. Britain is a country built on it. My grandparents were Polish and Russian jews and most people you know have some recent-ish heritage that isn't "English" (whatever that now means). Doctors, midwives, engineers, IT specialists. How many Uber drivers have you had who worked as engineers back home but, due to perhaps a lack of English skills, now do minimum wage jobs? None? Maybe you should talk to them a bit more, then.

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Last week Knight Frank released their 2024 Co-Living Report focusing on the performance and opportunities of the UK shared living sector. Some highlights of the report include: 🛌 Last year, nearly 2,500 new co-living beds completed and opened to residents, reflecting a 65% increase on coliving delivery in 2022. 🔢 This brought the total number of operational coliving homes in the UK to 7,540. 🏗 A further 13,483 coliving units are currently under construction or have planning permission granted.  📢 Residential property review site HomeViews has reported high levels of satisfaction among coliving residents – 92% of residents said they would recommend their landlord to friends and family. 💰 Since 2020, investors have spent £902 million acquiring or funding coliving developments. That includes a record £258 million in the first quarter of 2024, with coliving spend accounting for a fifth of the total invested in the UK Build to Rent market in the first quarter of 2024. Overall this is a positive sign for the UK coliving market in terms of investor appetite and pipeline opportunities. With supply significantly lower than housing demand across the UK, the opportunities for market growth are strong. You can download the report in the comments below to dive in further. Great work from Lizzie Breckner, Oliver Knight and their teams on the research! #coliving #data #research #pipeline #development #realestate

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Bosses at big real estate agencies including CBRE, Colliers, Cushman & Wakefield and JLL have found cause for optimism over the start of the year, with the first-quarter earnings season delivering an outperformance in several business lines. Cushman & Wakefield chief executive Michelle M. MacKay urged industry players to “not lose the plotline”, which is for an expected strong market recovery despite continued near-term volatility. “Although the recent uptick in rate volatility will mostly likely cause a pause in transaction volumes in Q2, the improvement that we experienced in Q1 gives us more confidence that global investment sales pipelines are solid, and investors are ready to engage when the time is ripe,” MacKay said on an earnings call, adding: “I’m very bullish for the recovery and that point of view hasn’t changed.” More here in EG. https://lnkd.in/esvZQ2ny

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A recent Bloomberg article by Sarah Rappaport highlights a #stratford apartment currently being marketed by UK Sotheby's International Realty for an East London record of £17.5m (£3,792psf). Stratford has certainly come a long way since the rather strange, pre-2012 Olympics resi building boom (I worked there!).  In the coming months I’ll be trying to quantify how 'soft' elements impact the increased/inflated/accelerated desirability of #realestate. For anyone else looking to do the same, swiftly follow these two steps… 1. Ignore pretty much all ‘#Placemaking’ research currently out there, then, 2. Buy ‘Manchester Unspun’ by Andrew Spinoza. This book holds some great insights into how the cultural Soft Power of #Manchester has influenced its built environment over the years. Whilst I’m not suggesting that the relationship between a £17m apartment/the Olympic Games is directly comparable to the legacy influence of the #Haçienda on modern day Manchester, what I would say is that Andy’s book offers some hugely important thought processes that we can borrow.  I’ll be kicking this off by joining the head of our Colliers Birmingham office, James Cubitt to discuss how perceptions of #Birmingham have changed in the last few years and how this has fed through into the rapidly changing skyline – Podcast to follow! PS. Good luck with the sale Alex Isidro! Tim Burke, Tom Bloxham, Dominic Pozzoni, Kirsten Marie Hald MRICS, Daniel Barbanel, Pippa Burke, Hannah Zitren, Megan McDonagh, Paddy Allen, George Adams, Alanna Peach MRICS, Andrew White, Lucy Keeling, Kate Jarvie, Sara Lindblom, Emilia W.. https://lnkd.in/eHuEyS5w

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Episode 122 of 50 Shades of Planning, which is brought to you in partnership with Cratus Group, is available now via this link or from Apple, Spotify, etc. What are we to make of neighbourhood planning? Friend of the podcast Ben Castell considers it a “grassroots planning revolution”. Perhaps less favourably it conjures for others images of corduroy and tweed-clad councillors convening a parish council working group to thwart plans for an incinerator or, worse still, new housing. With neighbourhood planning now part of the furniture, but with the current opposition and possible next Government talking about ‘taking planning up a level’, I thought it time for the podcast to evaluate the story of neighbouring planning so far, which is lead in this episode by the afore-mentioned Ben Castell. Ben invited Samantha Banks MRTPI, Graeme Markland and Leani Haim to record an online conversation with him last month. Now it is fair to say that Ben, Samantha, Graeme and Leani are all neighbourhood planning enthusiasts and for balance, in addressing the question as to how successful the enterprise has been, a more sceptical voice was required. About two thirds of the way through then you will hear from another friend of the podcast, Simon Ricketts, who fits that bill and who kindly recorded his thoughts in advance so that the others could mull them over in the final section of the episode. My thanks to all of them, and to Luca Difato for production support. 50 Shades of Planning is the podcast by planners and for planners so if you would like to use it as a platform for sharing anything that you think we need to be talking about then do please feel free to get in touch with me at samstafford@hotmail.com. https://lnkd.in/eZxi5bgi #planning #townplanning #development #podcasts

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📈 JLL Residential Update on the UK Housing Market 📈   Watch Marcus Dixon, Head of Living and Residential Research at JLL share an update on JLL’s housing market forecasts with some promising insights:   ❗ Forecasting a national price rise of 2% this year, contrary to previous expectations of a decline. ❗ Lower-value markets are expected to outperform prime markets, with London taking the lead. ❗ Increase of sales agreed by 13% and more homes coming to the market. ❗ The rental market shows positive signs of improvement, with rental growth reaching a 12-month high of 7.9% nationwide and 8.2% in London. ❗ JLL anticipates continued rental increases in the coming years, with a forecasted rental growth of 4.5% nationally in 2024 and nearly 19% growth between 2024 and 2028.   View our latest forecasts and gain valuable insights into the housing market here: https://lnkd.in/gYQckip3 #HousingMarket #RealEstateForecast #RentalGrowth #ResidentialResearch #JLLInsights #JLLResidential

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Our Q1 Living Report is now out. Improved optimism in the sectors and capital to invest.

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Sustained growth in London building upgrade activity has lifted office construction to a record high in the first three months of 2024. “The desire for premium office space as well as the implementation of energy standards has powered projects centred on modernising outdated premises. This inclination to opt for refurbishment is a trend we foresee enduring over the next decade." https://lnkd.in/eVk4Q2bV

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Rightmove's 2024 report on London's property market reveals a sustained interest in the city's prime postcodes, spotlighting the capital's enduring appeal to affluent buyers and renters seeking exceptional living spaces. The report reflects a broader trend where luxury real estate continues to captivate high-net-worth individuals, underscoring the intricate relationship between market trends and urban development. The ongoing allure of these properties highlights London's status as a desirable location and brings to light the challenges and opportunities in urban planning. The demand for luxury living prompts a need for sustainable development strategies that address the long-term impacts on social equity and community dynamics. This evolving landscape raises essential questions for the future of urban development. How will the continuous appeal of luxury properties affect the architectural and social contours of metropolitan areas like London? What role will sustainability play in shaping future developments? These questions are central as cities worldwide grapple with balancing luxury and accessibility in their growth strategies. Read more:https://lnkd.in/dRyjPiEB #luxuryliving #primeproperty #propertymarket

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Rejuvenate, Reinvent and Reimagine! With commercial property prices falling in the UK, buyers are capitalizing on the opportunity. Savills reports a 25% drop in market value since June 2022, citing reasons such as economic slowdown, higher interest rates, and increased remote work. Basil Walpole, director of central London investment at Savills, emphasizes the current potential for investors to pursue significant deals in London. The market has experienced 18 months of subdued deal flows and a quiet first quarter. Mark Stansfield from CoStar Group notes a 34% increase in available office space, with 33 million square feet now on the market. Asking prices have decreased by 18% since June 2023, indicating a possible boost in sales activity as interest rates decline. GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES P L C successfully raised £350 million for £1.4 billion in acquisitions, focusing on development sites and office conversions. CEO Toby Courtauld views the present climate as a strategic moment to invest amidst prevailing market pessimism. Listed UK commercial property firms are trading at a 24% discount to net asset value, reflecting investor hesitancy. However, logistics assets such as SEGRO plc and Big Yellow Self Storage continue to attract interest, drawing in North American investors like Blackstone and Brookfield Properties. Despite concerns about debt and potential Chinese sales affecting the market, cash-rich investors are expected to increase their acquisitions of undervalued British properties after the election. #Growth #CRE #RealEstate #Rightsizing #Investment #London #Business #Rejuvenate #Reinvent #Reimagine I The Business Times I SPH Media I Neil Behrmann

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What are the commercial real estate trends in 2024 so far? 📈 The commercial real estate landscape in the UK is ever-evolving, shaped by economic shifts, technological advancements, and changing societal preferences. After the first four months of 2024, we’re beginning to get a clearer picture of what the rest of the year might have in store. ➡ https://lnkd.in/dg6b7m8e 🔗 #ukhousing #ukproperty #propertynews #housingmarket #markettrends #proptech #hybridworking #coworking #sustainability #officespace #retailproperty Alicia Renshaw Leonard Curtis Legal

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An interesting discussion around the latest trends / future outlook for UK capital markets was presented at ULI UK Capital Markets Roundtable. Moderated by Steven Cowins and panellists Andrew Allen, Lorna Brown, Emma Long and Nick Duff with a contribution of John Forbes. #uliuk #capitalmarket

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An opinion piece in the Times today on how we might plan for a step-change in the #economic #growth prospects of the UK. My article looks at some potential solutions, including lessons learned from #Europe, and how the next #Government needs to look harder across a range of integrated subject areas - #spatialplanning, #housing, #skills, #infrastructure #netzero, #riskcapital - if we are to deliver greater inclusive growth outcomes. This article draws upon CBRE UK's participation in the #InclusiveGrowthCommission, a business-led forum set up to advance government policy development as this relates to inclusivity and economic growth. Led brilliantly by Tom Lees and Gerry McFall and the Bradshaw Advisory team, the 12 Commissioners are able to share real world experiences with Ministers, Shadow Ministers, and their advisors, so that we can collectively develop policy that will have the greatest effect. Ciaran Bird Martin Guest Jennet Siebrits Claire Fowler Alice Lacey https://lnkd.in/efszYEgi

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As a result of the hybrid working era, many companies are finding they need smaller offices. Compared to pre-pandemic floorplans designed to house as many workers as possible, more businesses are looking towards more compact but higher-quality spaces for the future.

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The Guardian's spotlight on the London-based Library of Things highlights the growing opportunity for rent and repair models: https://lnkd.in/erg69BJB Yet, unpicking the psychological reasons people like to own things will still be a key factor for businesses to consider as they move towards a #circulareconomy: https://lnkd.in/eZ2XD3Ff

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In the ever-evolving world of real estate, where choices leave indelible marks on both landscapes and legacies, MyHaus Property Group stands at the forefront of innovation and sustainability. At its helm is the visionary principal, Kira Steinhaus, a stalwart advocate for environmentally conscious property development. In an industry often measured by profit margins, Kira's mission transcends traditional paradigms, weaving together profitability and ecological mindfulness. Her influence extends beyond the boardroom, as she tirelessly educates clients and fellow real estate professionals on the transformative potential of sustainable practices, igniting a paradigm shift in the way we envision and execute property development. With two eco-conscious residential property developments to her credit KenLea Estate in Woombye and Abbott’s Road in Palmwoods. Kira is rapidly forging a sustainable path forward, simultaneously maximising the potential for land development while minimising the impact on our environment. Using innovative design and establishing sustainable covenants regarding building materials, landscaping, and water-saving measures, MyHaus is pioneering the way forward to a greener future. How and why did this unique gem in the wilderness of real estate evolve into an ambassador for sustainable property development? End of Part 1 #downloadthemattersapp #advertisewithmatters

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Very interesting article by Josh Gabert-Doyon and Joshua Oliver in the Financial Times exploring the growth of the build-to-rent sector in the UK. It focuses mainly on affordability for #multifamily and single-family homes but our experience with Broadband Communities shows clearly that as this sector develops a battle around amenities, and today especially #broadband and other connectivity will commence. And whilst companies like Grainger PLC and Quintain Living are quite UK centric, other competitors such as Greystar have a huge footprint in North America and experience to fall back on. I'm certain we are going to see more companies from this sector starting to attend Connected Britain, looking not just at how to provide the #connectivity, but also at #smarthome solutions and #inbuildtech CONNECTED BRITAIN: 11 - 12 September 2024 ExCeL London https://lnkd.in/eHSd3gMs?

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Gain valuable insights into the nuanced landscape of the holiday park market in our latest article. Delve into the historical trends and contemporary challenges that influence buyer-seller dynamics, institutional buyer behavior, and investment opportunities within this sector. Discover the outlook for corporate buyer activity, the implications of interest rates, and the increasing presence of private equity investors. This essential article from Savills provides a comprehensive understanding of the complexities inherent in the holiday park market. Click the link to read now.

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