Post factum

Under Prime Minister Modi's ten-year rule, India's foreign policy has become a significant domestic political issue. According to an Indian public opinion poll, 63% of the respondents affirmed that India's global standing has improved over the past decade. India's leadership has increasingly emphasised the concept of being a civilisational power. According to Modi, India is overcoming a 1,200-year-old "slave mentality" and proudly embracing its historical heritage. One recent example of India's global advancement was hosting the G20 summit in Delhi in 2023. Over the past decade, Modi has remained committed to the majority of India's foreign policy principles. These are: * Strengthening the defence partnership with the US. * Viewing China as the main regional rival. * Countering Pakistan's claims over disputed areas and national security threats from Pakistan-based terrorist groups. * Maintaining economic ties with Russia, particularly in oil imports. * Upholding strategic independence. This is evidenced by India's membership in organisations with conflicting objectives, such as the China-led BRICS and the US-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD). * India, with its 1.43 billion people and $4.11 trillion GDP, is emerging as a global superpower in contention for becoming the world’s largest economy. This idea gained traction after the liberalisation process began in 1991, overcoming some socialist features of India's economy. That year could be seen as a turning point in the global perception of India. On July 8, a New York Times headline quotes then-Minister of Finance – “India Is Now in a New Ball Game”, translating his hopes for “multinationals to look upon India as an opportunity for investment”. Nowadays, international trade, foreign direct investments and the financial market play an increasingly important role in the country's economy. Particularly, India's market capitalisation has boomed in recent years, reaching $5 trillion in March 2024. India is considered the world’s largest democracy, despite some criticism of its standards, and presents a less authoritarian development model to its closest geopolitical comparison, China. However, critical issues such as low literacy rate, widespread poverty, high unemployment and governance weaknesses still undermine Modi's “Indian Dream”.

10 years ago India first elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi. We reviewed his promises from 2014, as he is reelected for the third term on a weaker mandate. https://lnkd.in/exFF47Tf

⚡️Iran is months away from a working bomb, 6 years since US left the nuclear deal. Our latest report: https://lnkd.in/en9UJ8gu

Did Russia interfere with the 2016 US election? Well, yes. Here is what you need to know: https://lnkd.in/eKR4fpsu

An Islamic fundamentalist organisation, the Taliban, returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021, toppling a U.S.-backed government, following the withdrawal of U.S. troops. Media coverage of the Taliban’s return strongly emphasised the failures of the U.S.’ Afghanistan policy over the last 20 years. Taliban policy promises — to respect women’s rights; boost the economy; pursue a war on drugs; and improve security from terrorist organisations in the region, such as Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) — have scarcely been delivered, except for the limiting of drug production. The Taliban’s primary goal is to be diplomatically recognised, but so far no country or international organisation has done this. Central Asian countries have mixed relations with the Taliban with terrorism threats and water disputes the main issues affecting regional ties. Russia and China are eager to take advantage of the power vacuum created by U.S.’ withdrawal, although Afghanistan’s lack of rule of law and sanctions limit economic opportunities. Full report is available on our website, free and ad-free https://lnkd.in/eEm4BbsD

Three years passed since the United Kingdom actually withdrew from the European Union, and eight years since the Brexit referendum had taken place. We revisit this historic decision and see how it affected the British economy and society. Using the latest data and analysis from a broad range of sources, we asses which side gave more accurate predictions on the consequences of the withdrawal.

The effect of Brexit was to drastically reduce the number of migrants from the EU. From 282,000 net gain in 2016, Britain now has a net loss of people to the EU of 51,000 per year, while EU citizens now constitute the majority of arrivals who were refused entry at the UK border. Around 7.5 million EU citizens applied for the EU Settlement Scheme since 2016. Meanwhile, the amount of non-EU migrants into the UK rocketed in 2022 and 2023, a year after the effective Brexit. However, this should not necessarily be regarded as "the new normal", as the increase is driven by visa schemes for refugees from Ukraine and Hong Kong, as well as an influx of international students and healthcare workers. We analysed all predictions made by Brexit campaigners in 2016 in our new report, available for free on our website. http://postfactum.co.uk Ad-free

Because oil products are central to almost any economic activity, the demand for oil largely correlates with the size of a country's economy. The United States are the biggest consumer of oil, followed by China, where consumption of oil rocketed during the industrialisation and rapid economic growth in the 21st century. Collectively, European countries would edge the second place, however. Consequently, any changes in economic performance of these major players have a very significant impact on prices. For example, oil prices grew quickly as China experienced faster-than-expected economic recovery from the pandemic. Potentially, the demand can also fall due to switching to alternative energy sources. Read more on postfactum.co.uk

Why Ukraine didn’t get the military help it needed?

If you share our passion for global trends, you probably read a fair share of news. We want to help you get more value out of them. One way to do so is having a strong grasp of the basics, founded on reliable data and simple logic. Today, we talk about crude oil. Why is oil priceso important? What moves the oil market? How to think about oil geopolitics? https://lnkd.in/dpX9pxj5