IGM | Informa Connect

Things That Stick Out: Friday Edition For a second day, the bond market looked at decent economic reports from June and said, 'yeah, I don t think so.' Like Thursday's GDP beat, hotter-than-expected Core PCE wasn't enough to keep the rates complex from further discounting slower growth and a lower rate trajectory. Front of mind among traders was a decline in the personal savings rate to its worst showing since late-2022. Though the personal spending number was firm, it's hard to escape the conclusion that consumers are under stress and drawing down savings. We previously noted sharp declines in global macro benchmarks like pro-cyclical commodities and the Australian dollar as evidence that something appeared to break earlier this month. It's not reflected in the data yet, but the bond market senses it too, even if it is not yet obvious what happened. See: Things That Stick Out: Thursday Edition and Things That Stick Out: Risk-Off Edition See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/eSYpnbWd IGM | Informa Connect #inflation #interestrates #federalreserve #economy #financialmarkets #bondmarket

The European bond market was predictably slow this week given the pickup in corporate earnings and the onset of summer holidays... Also weighing was acute tech-led weakness in equity markets, which shut issuance windows for any issuers which were potentially looking to chance their arm. Four names did manage to get euro deals away this week for a combined EUR1.375bn, making it the lowest single currency volume week of the year by some distance! The IG corporate market recorded its first weekly euro issuance blank of the year this week although given seasonal factors, the earnings deluge and a far from ideal broader market backdrop, that came as no real surprise. Read more in the daily close as Matthew Barrett shares an overview of the week and a look ahead >> https://lnkd.in/ek9rMCJD #IGM #dailyclose #credit #Euro #bonds

Things That Stick Out: Thursday Edition Q2 GDP came in at a better-than-expected 2.8% Thursday but was instantly seen as old news, and the downward repricing of the economic outlook and interest rate trajectory continued in real-time. The speed at which this sudden deterioration has unfolded is remarkable. Like hitting a wall, pro-cyclical benchmarks such as copper and the Australian dollar are both down nine days in a row. See: Things That Stick Out: Risk-Off Edition Market odds of a 25-basis point rate cut were about 50% at the beginning of the month. Now, a small chance of a 50 bps reduction is discounted. Weak growth abroad is a headwind for sure. What sticks out this week are the negative headlines in two sectors that have been standard-bearers of the new US economy: electric vehicles and AI. 'OpenAI could lose $5 billion in 2024, run out of cash in 12 months' 'Ford Motor expects full-year loss of $5 -$5.5 billion on EVs' In other words, where are the paying customers? It begs the question of how much 'growth' can be attributed to a misallocation of capital in those two sectors, and what happens next. See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/d6naZfSv IGM | Informa Connect #economy #gdp #AI #EV #financialmarkets #interestrates #federalreserve

2Q growth hotter than expected in today's midday update! 🔥 Some key takeaways include: ➡ 3 ex-SSA borrowers raised $4.45bln yesterday ➡There were no deals announced deals announced overnight nor this morning, making it the 12th ex-SSA "Zero" day this year ➡Yesterday´s IADB 5yr FRN is expected to price later today ➡The three major indices are mixed with the Dow up 104pts (+0.26%), the S&P down (-0.10%) and Nasdaq down (-0.37%) Plus more! Read the full update here >> https://lnkd.in/gGbGvXmT #IGM #Credit #US

Things That Stick Out: Risk-Off Edition The divergence between pro-cyclical commodities, risk-sensitive currencies, and the major equity indices continues to widen Tuesday, with the former two sectors reflecting a rapid deceleration in the global economy. It's not just all about China, although their benchmark Shenzen index is down 3% since they cut rates barely 48 hours ago. Today's surveys on services and manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia and Richmond Feds (respectively) add some evidence to our suspicion that things aren't going so well here either. As old-school FX guys, we're always attentive to the Aussie dollar as an indicator of international trade and sentiment. That it's down for seven straight days means something is happening, and not in a good way. See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/gbajCpUs IGM | Informa Connect #economy #financialmarkets #foreignexchange #australiandollar #jpy #federalreserve

DAILY CLOSE: EUR and GBP on the menu, pace still slow... Earnings dominated the horizon on Tuesday and kept a lid on European primary bond activity, but we did at least see a few deals. In the single currency, financial borrower Mitsubishi HC Capital kicked off the week with a EUR500m 3yr senior unsecured line along with a small EUR75m Mar 2029 secured tap from HY name Kronos, whilst Inter-American Development Bank tapped an existing Dec 2029 sterling SDB for a further GBP250m! In non-covered FIG, making its third visit to the euro market of 2024 was Mitsubishi HC Capital Inc, through its UK arm Mitsubishi HC Capital UK PLC, via a EUR500m no grow 3yr fixed senior unsecured line. Read the full report here to find out what else happened in the market today and what to look out for on Wednesday >> https://lnkd.in/ea5ivzFT #IGM #credit #Euro

Things That Stick Out: Risk-Off Edition The divergence between pro-cyclical commodities, risk-sensitive currencies, and the major equity indices continues to widen Tuesday, with the former two sectors reflecting a rapid deceleration in the global economy. It's not just all about China, although their benchmark Shenzen index is down 3% since they cut rates barely 48 hours ago. Today's surveys on services and manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia and Richmond Feds (respectively) add some evidence to our suspicion that things aren't going so well here either. As old-school FX guys, we're always attentive to the Aussie dollar as an indicator of international trade and sentiment. That it's down for seven straight days means something is happening, and not in a good way. See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/gbajCpUs IGM | Informa Connect #economy #financialmarkets #foreignexchange #australiandollar #jpy #federalreserve

Join the global leaders of structured finance in the vibrant city of Hong Kong!🌍   By bringing together over 400 of the most senior and geographically diverse #investors, local issuers, and the wider ecosystem, #ABSAsia is set to be a major catalyst for structured product deal flow across the Asia-Pacific region.   Why Attend? 🚀 🌟 Leading speakers - Learn from 80+ industry experts who will share their perspectives on the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the market. 🌟 Unparalleled networking opportunities - Connect with a diverse community of professionals including investors, issuers, regulators & many more. 🌟 Curated content - Benefit from the meaningful on stage discussions that will asses the latest developments in the market. Join us and be part of the future of #StructuredFinance! Early-bird rate expires soon: https://absasia.org/

Midday update - Reshuffle & Rally👇🏻 - There was one deal announced overnight - Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) 5yr notes -5 ex-SSA borrowers announced deals this morning: ➡ American Express: 3-pt (4nc3 F-T-F and/or FRN & 11nc10 F-T-F) ➡ Ally Financial Group: 11nc10 F-T-F notes ➡ Nationwide Building Society: 5yr Senior Preferred ➡ Kinder Morgan, Inc.: 2-pt (5yr & 30yr) ➡ United Airlines: 2-pt (12.5yr EETC Pass-thru Certificates) - Additionally, Regions Financial announced a not countable $25par preferred perp Read the full update here for a recap on what the morning looked like today: https://lnkd.in/eyGP3rXr #IGM #credit #USA #middayupdate

Rising above the noise and confusion... Political drama aside, with earnings season just getting underway in earnest, it's not unusual that issuance would have been dominated by financials last week! Of the $48.1bln raised last week, the eighth busiest ex-SSA issuance week of the year, and the twenty-first time this year that the average weekly estimate ($35bln) has been breached, $36.85bln, or 77% came from domestic FIGS - since scores of corporate/industrial companies, some of whom have M&A deals on the table, were restricted by blackout periods. Read the full report here, plus access more exclusive insights and updates!>> https://lnkd.in/etUErv9Y #IGM #credit #morningcall #USD