Statements like ‘the time is now” didn’t exactly jive with Kevyn Adams’ early work in the offseason. The Sabres were quiet at the draft, trading back in the first round and shipping a second round pick to acquire Beck Malenstyn.
Free agency was busy but unspectacular – a fine result on a day so many questionable contracts are given out – ratcheting up the angst in the fanbase as Adams early bluster in the offseason had given way to different messaging. Adams finally took a more substantial swing on Friday, bringing in Ryan McLeod and Ty Tullio from Edmonton.
One of Buffalo’s prized prospects had to go the other way, catching some off guard given the acquisition cost for a player who will likely slot in as Buffalo’s third center. It seemed inevitable that at least one of Buffalo’s first round prospects would have a new home before the summer was over and Matthew Savoie checks that box as the sole piece the Sabres sent to Edmonton in this trade.
Despite his draft pedigree and impressive WHL production, Savoie was probably the best option for the Sabres to offer in a trade. Jiri Kulich has enjoyed two consecutive seasons of impressive play in the AHL and should still rank as the organization’s best forward prospect, especially as the Sabres talk about him as a center as opposed to a winger. Noah Ostlund and Konsta Helenius both appear to be considered centers by the organization as well, increasing their development profile if they do stick at pivot. Both have performed well in men’s leagues, which is something yet to be seen from Savoie. Isak Rosen would probably be the most expendable of Buffalo’s recent first round picks as winger whose AHL production hasn’t been extraordinary, but his value in trades may also be depressed by his slight size and production limitations. That puts Savoie front and center in trade discussions. His WHL production, even as a D+2, is tantalizing. He could be seen as a center by some, though it seems he’ll be a winger once he reaches the NHL. That production and draft pedigree would still carry weight in trade discussions even if questions about his size and injuries depressed his value. Meanwhile the Sabres could easily weather losing him once they found a deal to their liking.
There are some questions bubbling on Savoie as his development track hasn’t been as strong as expected for a player of his draft pedigree. A D+2 of his skill level should be producing big points in a junior league. He was a victim of the NHL/CHL transfer agreement and under different circumstances (an ever so slightly later birthday) he would have a full AHL year under his belt. Still, there have been some hiccups since he was drafted. Notable injuries lend credence to questions about his size, he was passed over for the World Junior roster in 2022-23 and his production dipped in the playoffs this year. Perhaps that can give some relief to those worried about his potential to blossom in Edmonton. He very well may become a terrific player in Edmonton, and that’s part of the level of risk Adams needed to accept in making this deal. But the luxury of stockpiling picks and prospects is that the depth you accumulate should make it easier to ship away an asset knowing you aren’t bankrupting yourself in the future.
I’m also struck by the potential that this group of recent first rounders appear to be trending towards developing into middle six players. One or two could exceed that projection, but if that’s the trend the Sabres see, perhaps they felt even more comfortable making this sort of trade. Not only would they still have the prospect depth to handle a trade, but with so many players with a similar profile, the lack of space for each of them in the future would almost make a trade mandatory.
Bringing in McLeod fills one of the holes Adams was said to be chasing since April. McLeod ought to be an ideal candidate to center Buffalo’s third line, giving the club a replacement for Casey Mittelstadt with a player whose resume fits well in a third line role. At 24 years old, McLeod fits perfectly with Buffalo’s core pieces. That long runway is a big plus for the Sabres as McLeod can serve as a key piece for several seasons, extending the return on the price they paid to bring him in. Compare that to shipping out one or more prime assets for a rental.
McLeod’s underlying numbers paint the picture of a responsible defensive player whose offense hasn’t quite popped. He was an excellent penalty killer for the Oilers last season and as illustrated by his heat map from Ineffective Math, it’s evident that he has thrived in shot suppression and pushing play away from his goal.
His defensive acumen may be tested more this year as it’s possible that Buffalo’s third line is used in a checking or shutdown role. His faceoff percentage from 2023-24 is three whole percentage points better than anyone on Buffalo’s roster who took a substantial number of draws – another trait the Sabres were expected to pursue this summer. How his role is shaped will probably depend, in part, on the wingers he starts the year with. It would be ideal for Adams to swing another trade that would pencil Jason Zucker and Zach Benson onto McLeod’s wings, or even Alex Tuch. Though as it stands with several weeks until training camp, it appears that either Benson or Zucker will skate opposite Jordan Greenway on that third line.
It’s not accurate to say that McLeod gives the Sabres a better option than Mittelstadt offered as the third center, but he certainly offers them a very well-rounded replacement. McLeod’s skill set is precisely what Adams needed to target with his offseason activity, a reassuring result given that a larger trade has yet to materialize.
McLeod blends well with the other players the Sabres targeted this offseason, creating a fast, tenacious bottom six. The Sabres have a nicely balanced forward group after the McLeod acquisition, though they are still lacking the high end skill acquisition many fans have been clamoring for. Even after shipping out Savoie, Adams still has the pieces to make that deal and can do so knowing he found the third center he badly needed entering a pivotal offseason.
Two in the Box