Mamata Banerjee's double delight: Weak Centre, Weaker State opposition

KOLKATA: Bengal's voters gave BJP a feeble mandate in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, helping Trinamool Congress (TMC) contain the saffron party largely to its pockets of influence and giving CM Mamata Banerjee the double delight of a weakened Centre and a weaker opposition in the state.
BJP won or led in 12 of 42 seats in Bengal - down from its 2019 tally of 18. Trinamool increased its count from 22 to 29.Congress managed to retain one of its bastions in Malda (South) but, in one of the biggest upsets of this election, old warhorse Adhir Chowdhury lost his Behrampore seat for the first time since 1999 to Trinamool newbie and former Team India cricketer Yusuf Pathan. Left Front, which fought as part of INDIA bloc, repeated its 2019 no-show in Bengal.
Trinamool increased its vote share from 43.7% in 2019 to 45.7%, while both BJP and Congress-LF combine saw theirs sliding. BJP slid from 40.6% to 38.7% and the combined Congress-LF vote share slipped from 13.2% to 10.3% this time.
BJP won Contai and Tamluk in East Midnapore, the home district of its state poll mascot, Suvendu Adhikari, by not-so-impressive margins, but saw two of its three Union ministers lose -
Subhas Sarkar in Bankura and Nisith Pramanik in Coochbehar. The third junior Union minister, Shantanu Thakur, won in Bongaon.
Former state BJP chief Dilip Ghosh, too, lost in Burdwan-Durgapur, where he was shifted just before the election season from his old seat of Midnapore. The party, in the bargain, also lost Midnapore. BJP lost Barrackpore as well, where it fielded Arjun Singh. Voter confusion over his multiple flip-flops and which party he was representing this time may have played a part.
North Bengal and a few isolated pockets like Purulia, Bishnupur and Ranaghat gave BJP some comfort but, everywhere, the margin seemed to be coming down substantially.
Trinamool ticked all the boxes in this election. A large part of its impressive showing came from the support of women voters, who benefited from welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar and Sabuj Sathi. Voters benefiting from Swasthya Sathi played a role, too.
BJP failed in almost all its poll pitches. The Sandeshkhali narrative that it built during the start of the campaign seemed to have come apart after the release of sting videos, which showed local BJP functionaries admitting that women were coached to file rape complaints. BJP lost Basirhat and, more significantly, trailed in Sandeshkhali assembly segment.
Trinamool also thwarted BJP's CAA-NRC pitch, sowing apprehension and confusion among voters over how things would play out after they applied for Indian citizenship under CAA. BJP retained both Ranaghat and Bongaon - where Matuas are a substantial chunk - but appeared to be doing so with reduced margins.
BJP's last-ditch attempt to play the "appeasement" card against Trinamool failed to make any significant impact. The Bengal campaign of PM Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah started with a focus on development and "Modi ki guarantee", but changed tracks midway, with an increased glare on Trinamool's "appeasement" politics. This preempted any chances of a large-scale split of Muslim votes between Trinamool and Congress-LF combine. Trinamool would have gained from the resultant Muslim vote consolidation, but there was no substantial Hindu vote consolidation to help BJP.
Trinamool successfully countered the last weapon in BJP's arsenal - "corruption" in the state administration - with an amplified message to voters that Centre was playing political vendetta in denying the state its share of funds.