Next Tory leader: who will replace Rishi Sunak?

The race to become the next Tory leader is already well under way, as the party reels from its worst electoral performance since 1832.

In the run-up to the election, several senior Tories "stepped up manoeuvres" in their bids to succeed Rishi Sunak, said the Financial Times. The would-be contenders are reportedly courting MPs and building grassroots support, ahead of a leadership race that will "help shape British politics for years to come as the Conservative Party decides whether to shift to the right".

Election night shook up the contest, notably by ruling out Penny Mordaunt, who "would have been a front runner in her third tilt at the leadership" had she not lost her Portsmouth North seat, said the i news site.

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The battle to replace Sunak will unleash an "almighty blood-fest", said Tom Newton Dunn in the London Evening Standard last month. "Unchained from the veneer of respectability" required of a party in power, years of post-Brexit internal tensions will come to a boil, "and it will be a fight to the death".

Kemi Badenoch: 7/2

The current favourite with bookmakers, Badenoch has risen rapidly through the Tory ranks to cement her place as the preferred candidate of the right-wing faction.

Having unexpectedly finished a strong fourth in the 2022 leadership race, the former banker and business secretary has become a "darling of Conservative right-wingers" thanks to her "direct approach and dedication to 'anti-woke' principles", said the BBC.

"She is far from a shoo-in" though, said Newton Dunn. "While she is an original and loved by the members, she can be bad-tempered and dismissive inside Westminster and is far less loved by Tory MPs."

Still, "not much doubt remains" that Badenoch "does intend to run for the leadership as the 'soft right' candidate who can help see off any bid by Nigel Farage for a Tory takeover", said Anne McElvoy on i news.

"Kemi is the future here," a Tory donor agreed at the Tories' recent summer gala fundraising event at London's exclusive Hurlingham Club.

Tom Tugendhat: 5/1

Former security minister Tugendhat is also expected to throw his hat into the ring, having previously run for the leadership in 2022. The former soldier is "seen as being on the moderate wing of the party", said The Telegraph.

That has "boosted the prospects" of Tugendhat, who is "working quietly in the background" on testing the water with colleagues for their support, according to Politico.

He may well be the One Nation wing's "leading candidate" said Newton Dunn, but even his supporters put his chances at 10-20% "tops" because the membership is "largely right-wing".

Priti Patel: 13/2

Badenoch's most serious challenge from the right of the party is expected to come from former home secretary Patel. The Telegraph said that "figures from across the party wanted her to stand as a potential unifying candidate who could end the infighting and provide a credible leader of the opposition".

The Times reported that to "win support" from her colleagues for a potential leadership bid, Patel had privately ruled out striking a post-election pact with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. She has also used a pre-election article to reaffirm the Conservatives as an "unashamedly pro-business party that believes in promoting the low-tax environment that the nation's entrepreneurs and wealth creators need to flourish and be successful" – something that will be music to the ears of Tory MPs and members looking for back-to-basics conservatism.

Suella Braverman: 10/1

The former home secretary's name has long been in the mix as a potential party leader, but her star could be on the wane. Since being cut from the cabinet in 2023, Braverman's "attacks from the sidelines" on Sunak's leadership and the party's direction "could hamper any chance of her sustaining a serious leadership bid", said i news. 

In a blistering pre-election column in The Telegraph, Braverman was not shy about the Conservatives Party's shortcomings: "There’s a reason why insincere posturing isn’t fooling anyone now, and it’s our record in office." Whether that is received as a betrayal of party loyalty or courageous "tough love" needed to turn the ship around remains to be seen.

James Cleverly: 12/1

Another ex-cabinet member who made a splash at the Hurlingham summer shindig was outgoing home secretary Cleverly, who has remained coy about his leadership prospects.

Allies have said the former foreign secretary "lacks the appetite" to succeed Sunak, citing his wife Susie's battle with cancer as a factor, The Times reported last month. But Cleverly was still being "urged to stand by some centrist colleagues" and would not refuse definitively "given the uncertainty of the state of the party post-election".

Cleverly's supporters whisper about him "playing the longer game" after the "inevitable internecine conflict which will follow the loss to Labour", said McElvoy, but his recent actions suggest "he would still like to be a standard bearer for the Tory centre".