Just a few months ago, as the clean-up crew broke down the set for the 2024 Academy Awards we pondered about the future. How could you not? History was right around the corner. Were we entering a new awards season where Warner Bros. would be the first studio in over forty years to earn three Best Picture nominees in one year? They had “Dune, Part II,” the follow-up to 2021’s “Dune.” They had “Furiosa,” the follow-up to 2015’s “Mad Max: Fury Road” and this fall “Joker: Folie à Deux,” the follow-up to 2019’s “Joker,” will arrive in theaters. And barring a surprise performance from Clint Eastwood’s “Juror No. 2,” that possibility has already faded away. Just three months later, no less. That’s no reflection on the studio, it’s simply how quickly the game can change for a season that has barely turned the corner.
READ MORE: Did another Best Picture nominee debut at Cannes?
The important aspect of looking at a snapshot of the Oscar race for Best Picture this early on is recognizing how many recent winners were first screened before the fall festivals, the “traditional” start of awards season. Over the past five years, “Parasite,” “CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” and, this year’s champion, “Oppenheimer” all dropped, in some manner, before the first Venice Film Festival red carpet. Now, will the 2025 campaign follow that trend, or will Oscar voters revert back to falling for the shiny new releases peppering their inboxes with screening invitations this fall? There is no easy answer and one reason why any Oscar analysis starts and ends with the Best Picture race.
Keeping that in mind, let’s first look at the movies that have already opened in theaters and screened at festivals for release later on in 2024.
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IN THE MIX
“Dune, Part II”
Considering the first “Dune” made the cut and earned nine other nominations, it goes without saying that the successful and well-received second chapter should pull a “Two Towers” and fashion its own Oscar legacy. After only earning behind-the-camera honors the first time around is an acting nomination possible in 2025? Our money is on Austin Butler for his transformative performance as Feyd-Rautha, but Warner Bros. will no doubt campaign Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Florence Pugh, and Rebecca Ferguson as well. Probably the only true “lock” for a Best Picture nomination so far.
“Anora”
NEON’s track record with Palme d’Or winners is pretty good. “Parasite” won four Academy Awards including Best Picture while “Triangle of Sadness” earned three nods including Best Picture. Last year’s Palme winner, “Anatomy of a Fall,” also made the top category, earned five nominations overall, and saw Justine Triet and Arthur Harari win Original Screenplay. This time around, they have indie film favorite Sean Baker and an acclaimed black comedy to win over Academy members. Baker has already guided Willem Dafoe to an Oscar nomination for “The Florida Project” (a movie that should have earned a BP nom). “Anora” is arguably the most “commercial” movie Baker has made (one reason we were stunned it took the Palme) and that might only help his cause with Academy voters. It’s not a lock for a nomination yet, but it’s close.
“A Real Pain”
Jesse Eisenberg‘s second directorial effort was the big Oscar breakout from Sundance. Eisenberg, who took the Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award at the festival, is a contender for an Original Screenplay nomination and, perhaps, a Best Actor nod. The real player, however, is Kieran Culkin, who should campaign for Supporting Actor and is potentially the frontrunner in the category. How the film is received beyond their contributions (and maybe the box office) will determine its Best Picture nomination fate. Although Searchlight has only had two years without a nominee, 2010 and 2017, since…2009.
“Sing Sing”
Colman Domingo’s Oscar nomination this past January for “Rustin” was just the opening act. The Emmy Award winner is ready to go back to back with an incredible performance in “Sing Sing.” The movie is a major tearjerker and A24 is dropping it this summer as counter-programming following its 2023 TIFF debut. That early release might give it enough runway to cement itself as a nominee in voters’ minds. At worst, it’s the Colman show and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.
MAYBE
“Challengers”
Listen, there is no way Amazon MGM Studios thought the reviews for Luca Guadagnino‘s tennis love triangle movie were going to be this good. Thanks to its sexy cast (Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist), Guadagnino’s direction, and a killer techno score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (a guaranteed Original Score nom) the movie became a social media sensation. And, strangely, the studio hasn’t done much to hype the fact it earned $94 million worldwide. But is it a Best Picture nominee? Did it stick with guilds and industry voters? Can a late April release be somewhat forgotten just two months later? Ponder.
“Civil War”
One movie that has not been forgotten by the industry is Alex Garland’s “last” directorial effort (well, solo directorial effort). We cannot quantify how many people in Hollywood still bring up A24’s biggest box office hit and, specifically, Kirsten Dunst‘s performance. We’re not sure the mini-major was prepared for a big Oscar campaign for their alternative timeline thriller, but it’s absolutely got a shot at making the 10.
“Emilia Perez”
If you parse through the 17 reviews so far from Cannes, you’ll immediately recognize that there was very little middle ground among critics. Either they loved it or, they really didn’t. And for anyone on the ground at the festival this year, that is indicative of the overall reaction from viewers. But, as any awards consultant will tell you, you just need a seed of a passionate fanbase to reach Oscar glory. Just enough love and you’ll get it across the finish line. The Netflix team has become experts at this with many of their nominees (we’re looking at you “Mastro,” “Mank,” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7”) and they hope to pull it off again with “Perez.” It helps that they have a legit Best Actress nominee contender in Zoe Saldana and Karla Sofía Gascón could make history as the first trans actress nominated for Supporting Actress (we would very much suggest not campaigning her for lead). The question is whether American voters will take to “Perez” as the Cannes jury did giving it not one, but two awards. We expect “Perez” to screen at Telluride. The reaction of those influential AMPAS members may tell the tale.
“His Three Daughters”
The second 2023 TIFF world premiere campaigning this awards season, Azazel Jacobs’ moving drama made my top 10 films of 2023 list (I qualify based on the year screened) and features superb performances from Carrie Coon, Elisabeth Olsen, and Natasha Lyonne. It’s the latter, however, who delivers the best work of her career and, in a perfect world, should be a given for a Supporting Actress nomination. Netflix will smartly have “Daughters” on the service by the end of September. If the three stars campaign enough? It could surprise.
LONGSHOTS
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
This is the movie that would have had our Palme d’Or vote, but it had to make do with a special jury prize for screenwriting instead (we’re convinced it screened way late for the jury). Moving and exhilarating and critically acclaimed and also 2 hours and 45 minutes, Mohammad Rasoulof’s melodrama could win over Academy voters if they see it. But will enough members actually see it? That’s the concern when there is little chance the regime in Tehran will let it be Iran’s international submission.
“Kinds of Kindness”
Despite some critical love, and potentially strong art house box office globally, this is likely just a Best Actor nomination play for Cannes winner Jesse Plemons.
“Furiosa”
The reviews were strong (we were fans), but the perceived box office failure will haunt it (if only it cost less). Should sneak in some below-the-line nominations here and there. Sadly, this is no “Fury Road.”
“Hit Man”
A world premiere at Venice which played the festival circuit before its release on Netflix this month, Richard Linklater and Glen Powell’s dramedy continued to earn universal acclaim. It was also a nice hit in terms of viewership, a rare acquisition streaming win for the service. But is it a Best Picture player? Will the industry consider it a “film” after a June streaming release? Does Linklater or Netflix even think it’s a real awards player? To be fair, this early release is uncharted territory for the streamer when it comes to awards. Ponder.
“Inside Out 2”
At publication, it had just crossed $800 million worldwide in less than two weeks of release with $1 billion a given and perhaps even crossing “Barbie’s” 2023 leading gross of $1.4 billion a possibility. An Animated Feature nomination is a given. Can Pixar and Disney’s awards team make it the first animated film to earn a nomination since “Toy Story 3” over 14 years ago? A slew of worthy animated films that haven’t made the cut since. It won’t be easy but it isn’t necessarily Mission: impossible either.
“Mufasa: The Lion King”
Speaking of animated features that could crack the field, the long-awaited prequel to “The Lion King” is also potentially in the mix. The first CG animated film earned only a Visual Effects nomination after the movie was pushed as “live action.” With Oscar-winner Barry Jenkins at the helm, “Mufasa” might end up a better film than its predecessor (maybe). If that’s the case, will Disney dare to classify it as…animated? And, more importantly, considering this year’s “weak” Animated Feature field, should they?
“Didi”
The winner of the Audience Award at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival, Sean Wang’s autobiographical feature debut is certainly a crowd-pleaser. If it can overperform at the box office, Focus might have an unexpected player on its hands.
“The Apprentice”
Jeremy Strong has a shot at a Supporting Actor nomination for his strong performance as Roy Cohn, but that might be the most the Academy can stomach with this Trump biopic. Critics groups might be kinder to Sebastian Stan as the former president and a very worthy Maria Bakalova as Ivanka Trump.
THIS IS NOT HAPPENING
“Megalopolis”
Listen, Lionsgate isn’t even paying for the marketing. They are a shell distributor for director Francis Ford Coppola and his partners. Everyone else passed. ‘Nuff said.
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Now, what movies should be on your radar as the season really kicks into gear? Keep your eye out for these titles, listed in alphabetical order, in the months ahead.
“Babygirl”
Nicole Kidman already has one movie on the way centered on a May-December romance, “A Family Affair” dropping on Prime Video this weekend, but this A24 release is a very different beast. Written and directed by Halina Reijn (“Bodies Bodies Bodies”), “Babygirl” finds Kidman as a CEO who has a dangerous romance with an intern portrayed by Harris Dickinson. Is it an awards play? Or does A24 think it fits a niche during the holiday release corridor?
“Blitz”
Steve McQueen’s WWII drama features a prestige-friendly cast including Saoirse Ronan, Harris Dickinson, and Stephen Graham. It’s expected to be at Venice or Telluride, but it’s a rare Apple TV+ theatrical release without a distribution partner yet (the streamer already partnered with WB and dated Brad Pitt’s F1 movie for 2025). At least, publicly. Curious, to say the least.
“Conclave”
Our guess is Edward Berger‘s follow-up to “All Quiet on the Western Front” skips Venice and arrives in Telluride or TIFF instead. The trailer Focus Features screened at CinemaCon teased a Vatican movie that thankfully appeared less claustrophobic than you might expect based on the source material. Could this finally be Ralph Fiennes‘ year? Can Berger deliver two Best Picture nominees in a row?
“The Fire Inside”
Rachel Morrison’s feature directorial debut has a script from the aforementioned Jenkins and a release date of December 25. Is this inspirational true story of Claressa “T-Rex” Shields, the first woman to win an Olympic Gold Medal in boxing, dropping at Christmas for awards purposes? Or because George Clooney’s “The Boys in the Boat” did so well domestically for the same studio, Amazon MGM Studios, in that release frame six months ago?
“Gladiator II”
We were not impressed by the tease Paramount offered up at CinemaCon in April, but it is a sequel to Ridley Scott‘s Best Picture winner released 25 years ago. It stars new industry favorite Paul Mescal in the title role and reunites Scott with Oscar-winner Denzel Washington. Also on board are Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, and the sole returning cast member from the original film, Connie Nielsen. Our gut tells us that Paramount would love for this epic to be a blockbuster hit and any awards season love is gravy. It could surprise or it might be…“Napoleon.”
“Hedda”
Nia Da Costa reunites with Tessa Thompson for a reportedly modern adaptation of Henrik Ibsen‘s classic play, “Hedda Gabler.” The question isn’t whether it will be worthy of awards attention. The question is whether it will be done in time to qualify for this season. One of many potential Amazon MGM Studios players this go around.
“Here”
Robert Zemeckis reunites with his “Forest Gump” stars Tom Hanks and Robin Wright in this century-spanning tale of a home and its inhabitants all from one set camera perspective. There is already a trailer and a “wide” release date of Nov. 15. In theory, a prime awards season timeframe. But, it’s been a long time since his last good flick, 2012’s “Flight.” We are understandably wary.
“Joker: Folie à Deux”
The first movie was nominated for Best Picture and earned Joaquin Phoenix his first Academy Award. Best Actress nominee and Original Song Oscar winner Lady Gaga is on board this time around as the iconic Harley Quinn. It’s (somewhat) of a musical and it will make a boatload of money. Frankly, it will need to be genuinely bad or mediocre not to make the 10. It’s as simple as that.
“Juror #2”
The last Clint Eastwood movie to earn a Best Picture nomination was 2014’s “American Sniper.” The last Eastwood movie to earn an Oscar nomination, however, was “Richard Jewell” when Kathy Bates crashed the Supporting Actress category. That was a little over four years ago. Not that long ago in the awards world. The cast includes Nicholas Hoult, Toni Collette, Keifer Sutherland, and Oscar-winner J.K. Simmons. It just wrapped post-production in April due to strike delays and is still undated at publication.
“Maria”
This is Pablo Larrain‘s third film centered on a notable woman in global history after “Jackie” and “Spencer.” His subject this time around? Opera great Maria Callas played by none other than Angelina Jolie. A rumored Venice world premiere, the film does not have a domestic distributor yet but is currently screening for distributors. It should have a home before the fall festivals. Especially considering Larrain guided Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart to Best Actress noms for the first two films.
“The Nickel Boys”
An adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, the drama is the narrative directorial debut for RaMell Ross whose 2019 “Hale County This Morning, This Evening” earned an Oscar nomination for Documentary Feature. It was also produced by Plan B and if you know anything about Plan B, you know they are a production entity with great taste. They have contributed to nine Best Picture nominees and three winners over the past 20 years. They rarely miss.
“Nightbitch”
Is it a Best Actress play for Amy Adams and an Original Screenplay contender for Marielle Heller? Or is it more? Can Searchlight Pictures pull off a 6th Best Actress win in eight years? Will the internet, er, social media explode if they don’t?
“Nosferatu”
Will Robert Eggers‘ latest opus debut at a fall festival? Or will Focus Features hold it to November as a strategic “late” edition closer to its planned Christmas release? The buzz is building. Pay attention to this one.
“The Piano Lesson”
Malcolm Washington‘s feature directorial debut is an adaptation of August Wilson’s seminal Pulitzer Prize-winning play (a theme this season it appears). The film stars his brother, John David Washington, and is produced by his father, Denzel. The cast also includes Oscar-nominee and honorary Academy Award-winner Samuel L. Jackson, Ray Fisher, Corey Hawkins, Stephen James, and Erykah Badu, among others. It’s also one of Netflix’s big Oscar guns this season, so expect to hear a lot about it.
“Queer”
Guadagnino’s second film this year is another rumored Venice world premiere. An adaptation of William S. Burrough‘s novel of the same name, it stars Daniel Craig and Drew Starkey and, like “Maria,” is also screening for potential U.S. distributors. Is it straight art house, awards, or both?
“The Room Next Door”
Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore in Pedro Almodovar‘s feature English-language debut. Full stop. Sony Pictures Classics hasn’t had a potential player this big since 2020’s “The Father.”
“We Live in Time”
After an unfortunate Oscar bait diversion with 2019’s “The Goldfinch,“ director John Crowley reunites with his “Boy A” star Andrew Garfield for a romance reportedly in the “Brooklyn” vein. A24 is handling the U.S. release and Garfield is paired with Pugh who has her second Best Picture contender this season. Oh, it also has a perfect Best Picture nominee slot of Oct. 11.
“Wicked, Part 1”
A big old-fashioned musical based on one of Broadway’s biggest hits ever starring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. We’re betting its closer to “Les Miserables” (8 Oscar nominations including Best Picture) than the musical Universal would like to forget, “Cats.” What say you?
Other films without that could surprise depending on Venice, Telluride or TIFF debuts include Joshua Oppenheimer’s “The End,” Duke Johnson’s “The Actor,” Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths,” and Michael Franco’s “Dreams” (the latter still without distribution).