Trey Lance’s trade value is an extremely complicated issue.
The San Francisco 49ers are exploring their options with Lance, the third pick in the 2021 NFL Draft who was just demoted to third-string quarterback, according to a league source. And of course, one of those options would be to trade Lance in an attempt to recoup a fraction of what they spent to acquire him two-plus years ago.
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The Athletic spoke to high-ranking decision-makers from eight NFL teams to assess Lance’s trade value, and opinions varied by a wide margin. The decision-makers were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.
Three executives believed the 49ers could acquire at least a third-round pick for Lance — maybe as high as a second-rounder if a team is desperate enough — or a third plus a late-round selection.
The rest believed a late Saturday pick would be the best-case scenario for San Francisco, with a couple who were skeptical the Niners could move him at all.
With Sam Darnold taking over as the 49ers’ backup quarterback, San Francisco is exploring its options with Trey Lance, a source tells @jeffphowe.
The 49ers moved up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Lance with the third overall pick. pic.twitter.com/O2q9s2mL1Y
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 23, 2023
The Lance believers pointed toward a 23-year-old with untapped potential who has a reputation for being a hard worker and a bright quarterback with ideal size and physical ability. Since teams are desperate to find a franchise quarterback, they might not want to pass up an opportunity to add Lance now that he’s available, especially if they’re in a transition phase at the position.
Those who didn’t believe Lance had much trade value cited his injury history, a significant lack of experience and inconsistent performance and accuracy during his limited pro snaps.
Lance hasn’t played anything close to a full season since 2019, as North Dakota State only played one game in 2020 due to the COVID-19 shutdown. He opened his NFL career as Jimmy Garoppolo’s backup, but a preseason finger injury severely affected his mechanics throughout his rookie season. He won the starting job in 2022 but suffered a fibula fracture and ligament disruption in his ankle in Week 2 and missed the rest of the season. He has played in just eight games, made four starts and attempted just 102 passes in two seasons.
Considering those factors, executives pointed toward a real concern over the toll that has taken on Lance’s development.
Even if a team believes Lance’s career can be revived, there’s a practical issue with the timing. Teams will be shifting into regular-season mode next week, and that’s when it becomes rare for a third-string quarterback to get quality practice reps. Even if Lance is more talented than the backup, it will likely take a while for him to be comfortable enough in the new offense to seize the No. 2 job.
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So if Lance’s ceiling is restricted in 2023, any potential trade might be with more of an eye toward an evaluation in 2024. That’s not a huge issue since a new team would be acquiring Lance on the final two years of his contract at an approximate total of $9 million, an affordable cost for a quarterback who was so widely hyped before the 2021 draft.
It’s up to the 49ers to determine where more value lies. They traded three first-round picks and a third-rounder to move up to No. 3 to select Lance, and they certainly know they won’t receive anything in the same stratosphere if they decide to move on from him.
Remember, the 49ers also traded four picks last year for running back Christian McCaffrey, so they could also be looking at this as a chance to recoup some draft capital for a third-string quarterback. Even if Lance’s trade value is on the low end of the spectrum, the Niners know it’s important to restock the draft cupboard. Teams around the league know the 49ers have a roster loaded with high-end talent and big contracts, but there’s a need to find balance through the draft with players on more affordable rookie deals.
Then again, the 49ers’ injury woes were the primary factor for their playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last season. With Lance and Garoppolo already on injured reserve, starter Brock Purdy went down with an elbow injury, and Josh Johnson suffered a concussion. Sure, it’s incredibly rare to go through four quarterbacks in that fashion, but it’s still fresh in the franchise’s mind.
The Niners know this: Lance is the third-string quarterback, which generally means it’s a long shot that he’d see the field in 2023. And if Purdy continues to develop, the clock will continue ticking on Lance’s time in the Bay Area.
But teams around the league know there’s an available quarterback who was a highly regarded draft prospect — widely, though not unanimously — just two years ago. As the Niners explore their options with Lance, teams are split on how much they could recoup in a trade.
(Photo: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
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