When he spoke to reporters at the end of the season, Brandon Beane made it clear the Bills won’t be major spenders in free agency. The 2020 Bills, who went 13-3 and won the AFC East, pushed their way into the NFL’s elite through timely free-agent additions and trades by Beane and his staff.
Of the 11 starters on offense in the AFC Championship Game, four were draft picks, one was a waiver claim, five were free-agent signings and one was acquired via trade. Defensively, the Bills started five draft picks and one undrafted free agent. Those draft picks and the players already on the roster will need to carry this team again in 2021.
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“This is not going to be a free agency that we can be as aggressive,” Beane said. “We’ve been aggressive with that because we’ve built up the resources and you can only have so many drafts. At the end of the day, we still want to draft, develop and sign our own. We’re getting to that point where now we don’t have to go out and add pieces from free agency. We’ve got to see how many of the guys we can retain. We’ll fill in here and there some holes. But I would not anticipate any blockbuster moves of (Stefon) Diggs’ type, or some of the moves we made the year before in free agency. It’s really going to be plugging some holes depending on who we lose. The onus is on us to really have a strong draft.”
Depending on whether the NFL sets the salary cap at the $175 million floor or somewhere north of $180 million, as has been reported, the Bills could have the flexibility to plug some holes with cheaper free agents. They are right up against the cap but have the ability to create between $20 million and $30 million in space by restructuring contracts and releasing players. They also have three big-ticket free agents who could eat into that cap space if the Bills choose to retain them.
Here’s a look at how the Bills can carefully navigate free agency through calculated signings and retaining their own talent. Keep in mind, the Bills can only afford so many of the Plan A options listed below. They’ll have to be selective.
The need: Tight end
Plan A: Jonnu Smith, Titans
Jonnu Smith may end up out of the Bills’ price range. That depends on how serious the Bills are about upgrading the tight end position and what moves they make to free the space necessary to make a signing of this magnitude. Spotrac estimates that Smith will command a contract worth between $7 million and $8 million per year. If the Bills aren’t confident in Dawson Knox turning a corner in his third season, they’ll need a tight end who can contribute right away. That’s tough to find in the draft, and Smith would solve the problem. While he’s never had more than 41 catches or 488 yards in a single season, he hasn’t been heavily targeted during his career. He was fourth among tight ends with an average of 5.8 yards after the catch per reception last season. That combined with his eight touchdowns a year ago make him an attractive option for a Bills offense that could use another option in the quick passing game and near the goal line.
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Plan B: Gerald Everett, Rams
Gerald Everett had a nearly identical season to Smith’s minus the touchdown production. Everett was third among tight ends averaging 5.93 yards after the catch per reception and had a 10.2 yards-per-catch average to Smith’s 10.9. He scored only one touchdown but also had just five red-zone targets compared to Smith’s 17. Everett should come at a lower cost than Smith, and with a target share better than the 11 percent he had in the Rams’ offense, Everett could be a capable threat in this offense.
The need: Defensive line
Plan A: Dalvin Tomlinson, Giants
Beane mentioned the Bills need to get bigger in the middle of their defensive line. At 320 pounds, Dalvin Tomlinson would qualify as bigger. The Bills have to move some money around to be able to afford an addition like Tomlinson. They invested more money in the defensive line than any team in the NFL last season but can move on from Vernon Butler and Quinton Jefferson without much dead cap money. They’ll be getting Star Lotulelei back and got better play out of Harrison Phillips toward the end of the year, but a player like Tomlinson could solve a lot of the defensive line issues the Bills had. He’ll be sought after on the free-agency market, so the Bills might have to target a different tier of player.
Plan B: J.J. Watt, Texans
J.J. Watt doesn’t play the same position Tomlinson does, but the Bills have a need for impact players up front regardless of position. After the season the Bills had in 2020, they can now attract players like Watt who are looking to compete for a championship toward the end of their careers. Watt is still under contract with the Texans, who will likely look to trade or release their star defensive tackle this offseason. If he’s available and willing to take a short-term contract to play in Buffalo, it would be a great match. He could play defensive tackle or defensive end in this scheme and provide the type of pass rush the Bills lacked in the front four this season.
The need: Offensive guard
Plan A: Jon Feliciano
Sometimes in free agency, keeping your own is enough of a win. That should be the case with Jon Feliciano, who showed the ability to play both center and guard during a season in which he spent the first part of the year recovering from a torn pectoral muscle. Brandon Scherff could set the market for guards this offseason with a contract in the $15 million-per-season range. While Feliciano won’t end up with that type of price tag, he could land a contract between $6 million and $8 million per year. This is Feliciano’s first chance at free agency as a starter, so he may not want to take too much of a discount.
Plan B: Alex Redmond, Bengals
Alex Redmond joined the Bengals as an undrafted free agent in 2016. He developed into one of Cincinnati’s better run blockers over the years but has occasionally struggled in pass protection, allowing three sacks in 2020. The key here is he shouldn’t be too expensive to sign. The Bills have hit on similar offensive linemen in free agency. And they want to get better at running the ball. Redmond could be a good name to throw into the competition.
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The need: Offensive tackle
Plan A: Daryl Williams
Spotrac estimates that Daryl Williams will sign a two-year, $15.7 million contract. At that price, the Bills should be willing to bring Williams back. He revived his career this past season, providing a steady presence at right tackle. The Bills have more familiarity with Williams than most teams. The 28-year old’s two best seasons came as a right tackle. If the Bills are convinced they can squeeze a few more good years out of him and others are scared off by his injury history, Beane might be able to find a sweet spot with a value contract here.
Plan B: Draft/Cody Ford/Ryan Bates
The price tag top offensive tackles command in free agency makes this a tough spot for the Bills to upgrade from or replace Williams. The right tackle market is thin in free agency. Panthers tackle Taylor Moton would be appealing, but he’s likely to cost too much. That makes Williams important to keep. If the Bills can’t retain him, they may have to turn to the draft or an internal option at right tackle. Cody Ford has played that spot before and could kick back outside. The Bills have also developed Ryan Bates at tackle behind the scenes over the last few years. The Bills have spent only three draft picks on offensive linemen since Sean McDermott and Beane arrived, but they could be in the market for one this year.
The need: Cornerback
Plan A: Richard Sherman, 49ers
If the Bills are going to make a splash in free agency, Richard Sherman would make some sense. He’ll come at a price tag potentially north of $10 million, but Sherman is still playing at a level that warrants it. He’s one of the smartest cornerbacks in the NFL, constantly anticipating what his opponent is doing. He also has no problem playing physical football, which McDermott loves. His leadership would be welcome in the Bills’ locker room, as well. Sherman has said he thinks he can play two more seasons, and he probably wants to do so for a contender.
Plan B: Xavier Rhodes, Colts
Xavier Rhodes is a big, physical cornerback who is now better suited to play in a zone-heavy scheme like the one the Bills run. He signed a one-year, prove-it deal with the Colts last season and more than proved himself. His price tag will be interesting to track. He’s not quite the player Sherman is, but he won’t come at the same cost, either.
(Photo of Watt: Tim Fuller / USA TODAY Sports)
