Yesterday evening I saw the first thing that made me think Joe Biden will weather this storm and remain the Democrats’ candidate for President. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appeared outside the Capitol stating clearly and categorically that Biden’s in the race and she supports him. Period. Interestingly she referred to having spoken to him “extensively” over the weekend. By my subjective impression, she didn’t say this, as I’ve seen some Democrats say things over the last week, in a way that struck me as a holding pattern remark. AOC obviously carries a lot of weight in the progressive wing of the party. But beyond that she has exceptionally good political instincts, both as to the general election as well as the mood within the congressional party. When I saw the video of her comments it was the first card I’d seen on the table in ten days which made me think this whole drama would go in President’s direction.
Then after seeing this I saw something that happened earlier in the day but which I hadn’t seen yet. (I spent much of the afternoon working on something else.) The Congressional Black Caucus came out squarely in favor of the President. This fits a historical pattern. The CBC remained steadfast for Bill Clinton in his most beleaguered days. But it also lines up with what I’d heard anecdotally about reactions to the last week among many African-American voters.
This thing has spun in so many directions I’m not inclined to make any predictions. But these developments strike me as very big deals.
One more thought on this dismal standoff between President Biden and many in his party. Democrats are now in this weird and sometimes jaw-dropping standoff in which major elected Democrats make statements criticizing their current de facto nominee in the hope he’ll stop being the nominee and make way for a better nominee even though they’re not really clear who that nominee will be. I’m not being as arch as I may sound. I get why they’re doing it. They think he needs to step aside for a more able nominee and this is their way of adding pressure. But to the extent it becomes a process with no clear end point it has some pretty obvious downsides. You have a damaged nominee and you damage him even further and he’s still your nominee. This has to go one way or another and fairly soon.
We’ve noted a few times that there are half a dozen or so Democratic party stakeholders with the clout and standing to force this issue. But among those Pelosi is at least the first among equals. There’s Schumer, Jeffries, Clyburn, maybe Obama. Large groups of officeholders would obviously speak with a force of their own. But I think this really comes down to her. She’s been very quiet over the last few days.
One way or another this has to be brought to a halt. In a very real sense the Biden v Trump contest has been replaced for the moment by a Biden v mostly, but not all, unnamed Democrats contest.
This is another one of those focused, factual-question posts. As always, not trying to signal a larger point here. Just trying to address a specific question for the community which a number of TPM readers have asked me via email. Here goes.
There are suggestions out there, in some cases verging on urban legends, that no one is taking into account the fact that in many states the deadlines have already passed for switching the candidate names on the presidential ballots. Heritage has put out that they’ve got a team of lawyers ready to hit the courts. I’ve seen claims the the deadlines have passed in key swing states.
While I’m no election law expert and certainly no expert of individual state laws, I feel highly confident that none of this is accurate.
Just a side or secondary point that I wanted to add to what’s below. As I said, a President can’t lose the support of his congressional party going into an election. Why that happens or whether it’s fair becomes secondary to the fact itself. It’s one thing in ordinary circumstances. But you simply can’t have or survive that going into an election, certainly not one where you appear to be running at least a bit behind. I wanted to mention something about members of Congress themselves. In my experience the vast number of members of Congress have no hidden insight or greater access to information than you or I do. They may in certain instances get access to party polling. But that usually leaks in some form or another fairly quickly. They’re basically just as prone to panic, the groupthink of their social sets or cocoons, wishful thinking as you or I am.
This isn’t universal of course. Some have better political instincts than others. Some have really good political instincts. But on balance they’re just not cut from very different political cloth. That’s my experience at least.
I am going to try to write a few pieces today and tomorrow taking stock of the truly unprecedented and almost unimaginable standoff that is not so much wracking the Democratic Party as simply holding it in place, in limbo, for more than a week now. But before doing that I thought it was important to share some general thoughts on where we are with all of this. First I must say that I can’t think of many other or perhaps any political situation I’ve written about at TPM over decades that was more difficult for me to make sense of, either as a matter of what is happening or will happen, or what should happen. I’ve been mainly focused on the first question.
For the second half of last week I was basically certain that Joe Biden would be forced to end his candidacy and that it was simply a matter of time before he did so. Then, starting Saturday, things seemed to shift. These things work in waves. For any politician the best way to avoid being forced to resign (and here I’ll use “resign” as a proxy for Biden ending his candidacy, not actually resigning the presidency) is simply not to resign. It’s one of those truisms that contains more depth and nuance than one at first realizes.
The FSB is coming up with increasingly creative ways to create low-follower X accounts.
In early 2022, a senior employee at the Russian state news agency RT pitched his superiors on an idea: could RT create an in-house social media bot farm to reach people outside of its traditional news broadcasts?
Panic about Catholics, Freemasons, and, later, Jews, is deeply woven into American history, and forms the basis of our fertile culture of conspiracy theorizing.
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