2023 NHL Draft: Pronman and Wheeler debate Danielson, Moore, Swedish ‘D’ head-to-head

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Last week, Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman debated their rankings of some of the most interesting players in the 2023 NHL Draft.

Today, they’re back for more — only this time, they’ll be debating two players of the same position head-to-head, stating their case for why a team should pick one over the other.

Here’s part two of Pronman vs. Wheeler.

Max Bultman: Let’s start with two of the top centers in this class, Oliver Moore and Nate Danielson. Scott, you have Moore in your top 10 and Danielson at 20, and Corey, you basically the opposite.

We’ll give Scott the opening statement here: Why would you take Moore ahead of Danielson?

Scott Wheeler: Ultimately, I think Moore will just be capable of impacting the game in more ways at the next level. They’re both workers and drivers. They’re both very competitive. They’re both strong athletes who play hard. Both showed they could carry a line this year. But outside of Danielson being a couple of inches taller, I think there are some important separators that favor Moore.

NHL Draft mailbag as we're under two weeks to go https://t.co/uHwxoipsEf

— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) June 16, 2023

The speed is obviously the big one. Danielson is a good skater. Even a plus-level one. Moore is a world-class one — best-in-class — and will be able to transport pucks in transition and put defenders on their heels in ways that few can.

But I’d also argue Moore has the edge as a handler and shooter, too, with an ability to create more looks for himself inside the offensive zone, beat the first layer of pressure, and finish with a wrister that comes off a little harder.

There’s just more dimension in a couple of small ways (Danielson can finish around the slot, too, no question) and certainly one major one.

Bultman: Corey, why should Danielson go first?

Corey Pronman: I agree with a lot of the things Scott said above. The one major disagreement I have is the skill and creating. I think Danielson has excellent skill. He’s a play driver with high-end hands who can create at high tempos. He is more skilled than Moore. He is only a couple months older but his junior production is better, both in his draft season and as an underage in a better junior league. He is a better shooter, as I thought Danielson was a more consistent threat shooting from mid-range/faceoff dot this season and a multi-dimensional guy on the power play.

Some may argue that Moore didn’t get PP1 time/premium offensive opportunities, but Danielson had very iffy linemates around him all season while being the guy teams always matched up so I think those issues balance out.

Moore gets a significant edge in the skating department, there’s no question about it. But otherwise Danielson is 2.5 inches taller, with better skill, finishing ability, and overall track record of scoring. That’s plenty of major differences for me to close the skating gap and make me think he will be the superior pro.

Bultman: It sounds like you’re split on the evaluation of these two centers, not just the value of their profiles. But I’m curious how you each would factor in the respective quality of the two teams they played on into that conversation — Moore on the loaded NTDP, where he has more talent around him but a lesser role, and Danielson as the focal point of a less talented team overall.

Wheeler: Anecdotally, I think that prompts the question of would the two players have accomplished the same if their roles were reversed? I’d be willing to bet that Moore would have been just as productive as Danielson, if not more, had he been Brandon’s first-line centre this year, even considering the lack of talent on that team.

I would also argue with Corey’s point about Danielson’s production being better to this point on that basis. If you’re just looking at their USHL-to-WHL splits, sure, Moore registered 25 in 23 in the USHL (1.09 points per game) and Danielson scored 78 in 68 in the WHL (1.15 points per game). But if you’re looking at the entire body of work and include Moore’s larger full-season sample featuring NCAA and international competition, he was actually 75 in 60 (1.25 points per game) and also more productive on a goals per game basis (0.52 to 0.49) while playing within lesser offensive usage. That included, and this might be the most compelling piece, 11 goals and 28 points in 20 games against NCAA opponents.

Pronman: We obviously have differences of opinion on the trait grades and would think one player would have had more success than the other in a given role.

Bultman: Let’s move on to our next topic, on a pair of right-shot defenders teams will certainly be deciding between in the coming days: Tom Willander and Axel Sandin Pellikka. Corey, we’ll start with you here, as Willander shot up your final ranks into the top 15, ahead of Sandin Pellikka. Why do you prefer him now?

Pronman: I think Sandin Pellikka is more of a natural offensive guy. Anyone who has seen him run a power play, or just compared the two players’ offensive totals will see there’s a difference there. I think Willander has a more translatable game to the pro level though. He is one of the very best skaters in the draft. Sandin Pellikka is a good skater, and while some scouts feel he’s high-end in that area, I see good, not great mobility. Willander is also 2.5 inches taller, while being a better skater, and he projects to be a much better defender in the NHL. We saw at the U18s how good of a shutdown player he could be against the top NHL talents on Canada and USA.

The question then becomes how big is the offense difference between the two relative to the defensive differences. I think the offense difference will be minor even though I think Sandin Pellikka is smarter with a better shot. I think Willander can move the puck. I think he showed that as the season progressed between his play in the second half at the Swedish J20 level including the playoffs, the U18 5 nations in February and the 18 worlds in April. The sample size isn’t overly inspiring but I saw the progression in his game to where at times the Swedish U18 coach was defaulting to Willander as the main power-play guy at times over ASP. With that in mind combined with his premium athletic toolkit, I think Willander will be the better NHL defenseman.

Bultman: Scott, you have Sandin Pellikka ahead still by a solid margin. Why should teams prefer him to Willander?

Wheeler: I think it’s close enough that either could have the better NHL career. We certainly both agree that Willander’s the better skater and that, with his length, probably gives him a higher ceiling defending. I like Sandin Pellikka to become a solid defender in his own right, though, too. He’s competitive. He’s physical. He plays tight gaps really effectively through neutral ice. He reads the game well. He held his own in the SHL this season. So it’s not as though we’re comparing an excellent two-way defenseman to an all-offense guy. I think I’d contend that ASP’s mobility is closer to great, too. Certainly he has great edges/backward skating, but I like his ability to pull away going forward as well.

And then there’s a pretty wide gap between their sense/shooting/offensive instincts. Willander plays a comfortable game moving the puck, but his play off of the offensive zone blue line was vanilla all year, both in terms of playmaking skill and in terms of his ability to even see the ambitious offensive play to begin with (he almost always makes the simple one). The Swedes also ran two pretty equal power play units in terms of usage, and spread out the talent at forward and on defense.

If Willander can add a little more dimension to his game in time, I could see my position changing, but I just haven’t seen enough from him there at this stage.

Bultman: Corey, considering how Willander rose on your list after the U18 Worlds, is there any concern about putting too much emphasis on what he showed at that event?

Pronman: It is, but with him, I think it’s less an outlier performance and more of a trend. He wasn’t a top player for Sweden at the Hlinka. Then he got better at the November five nations. Then he was very good at the World Junior A Challenge. Then he was good at the February 5 nations. Then he helped lead Rogle to a J20 title. And finally, he had that monster April tournament at the worlds. So it wasn’t about one good week but a player who continuously got better as the season progressed.

Bultman: And Scott, there aren’t a ton of top-four defensemen who are under 6 feet in the NHL (although, it’s worth noting, some of the exceptions are some of the sport’s best players). The question might be, does Sandin Pellikka have the dynamic qualities to be the next one, or is there any concern he could trend more like Adam Boqvist or Nils Lundkvist?

Wheeler: There were 92 defensemen 6 feet or under (28 percent of the league’s D, almost exactly two out of every team’s seven defensemen), and 47 defensemen 5-foot-11 and under (14 percent, or one-in-seven), who played in the NHL last year. I don’t think it’s as rare as it’s perceived to be that way.

ASP is closer to Lundkvist than Boqvist stylistically, and Lundkvist showed promise in Dallas that he could become a second-pairing guy. I think he’s a better prospect than Rasmus Sandin and Sean Durzi were at the same age, too, and both have become good NHL defensemen who’ve beaten out good, bigger NHL defensemen for their jobs. If those guys are his floor (and I think ASP is a considerably better prospect right now than Lundqvist, or Sandin, or Durzi were), and a Josh Morrissey or a Vince Dunn-type is the ceiling, that’s worthy of a high-pick play. I see more than enough quality in the way he handles the puck, attacks, shoots, and sees the ice to believe there’s a medium chance he can get there offensively.

Bultman: Eduard Sale entered the season as one of the premium names in this class, as a 6-2 forward who’s shown lots of offense. But, Corey, he’s fallen out of your top 20 now, while Samuel Honzek has risen all the way to 13. What did Honzek do to elevate himself that way, and why did Sale fall for you?

Pronman: Honzek was interesting towards the end of last season as a big forward who could skate, PK and showed some offense. I liked him against men and with Slovakia’s U18 team, but I wasn’t as sold on the skill and playmaking until I saw him in the WHL. He showed one-on-one skill, ability to find seams, to create off the rush and get to the net. The whole package made for a versatile and highly appealing pro prospect without a clear flaw. One question I’ve asked people this year is exactly how much worse is he than Juraj Slafkovsky? He has less skill and goal-scoring touch, and everyone agrees Slafkovsky is better, but most scouts don’t push back and say there’s a wide difference between the two players.

Eduard Sale looked like a premium talent when I saw him last spring at the U18s. Then I thought he was average at the Hlinka in the summer. His season in Czechia was up and down. His world juniors were solid and some of his best hockey this season. I was in on him up until January as a super skilled albeit not super competitive wing with speed and size. Then he laid two eggs in a row at the U18 5 nations in February and the U18 Worlds in April, combined with so-so play with his club down the stretch. The consistency in his game is a major flag, and makes it hard to go to bat for him as a premium talent when his best hockey versus his age group was a year ago.

Bultman: Scott, you’ve dropped Sale as well, but he’s still a top-15 player for you in this class, compared to Honzek at No. 25. Is that a sheer upside play, or is there something else keeping Sale ahead (and in a tier above) for you?

New @TheAthletic: 2023 NHL Draft class superlatives:
– Best skaters
– Best shot
– Best passers
– Best hands
– Most competitive
– Smartest
– Top two-way forwards
– Highest floor
– Highest ceiling

More: https://t.co/APx8wYdwQ6 pic.twitter.com/oJLflbmHc9

— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) June 15, 2023

Wheeler: I think part of it is that I certainly wouldn’t qualify his U18 Worlds as having laid an egg. That Czech team was as talentless up front as any I can recall at that level, they were in a really tough group, and he still registered 20 of their 98 shots (nearly twice as many as his nearest teammate and four per game, including eight against Canada and an assist on their only goal against the USA), was in on six of their 13 goals (two more than his nearest teammate), and flashed legit skill.

Honzek is certainly the more complete of the two players, and Sale can come and go in games for sure, so I can understand an argument that favors him on that basis. Sale gets higher grades as a skater, handler, shooter, and passer though and I think ultimately has a higher ceiling — certainly if he can add a little more fire to his game, but maybe even if he doesn’t and there’s enough of a gap between them offensively. Honzek is a projectable middle-six forward. I haven’t seen the top-six, PP1 tools in his game that I’ve seen in Sale’s.

Bultman: Corey, I know you have Honzek rated above Sale in your upside rankings. Do you want to make a case for Honzek’s ceiling?

Pronman: Using EliteProspects’ filters based on 6-3 players or bigger by points/game in their WHL draft season over the last 20 years here are the top six:

Cody Glass 1.36
Samuel Honzek 1.30
Dylan Cozens 1.24
Kirby Dach 1.18
Conor Geekie 1.11
Michael Rasmussen 1.11

He’s absolutely in top-pick offensive production territory and has legit skill. I think he’s a better skater than Glass and Rasmussen as well even though Ras moves well for his size. He’s a lot of player and that he competes well too makes him a highly appealing prospect.

Bultman: Last word to Scott: First, any response to Corey’s point? And second, given the consistency bit, how confident are you that Sale can approach the ceiling that his raw ability creates?

Wheeler: To your first question: I would just add that all of those players, outside of Cozens, look like they were drafted too high. Whether or not they were picked high is I think less relevant to whether they were good picks. With his November birthday, Honzek’s also the oldest player in that group at the time of the draft.

To your second: It’s a fair question. Once you’re into the teens, though, there are questions about every player. Colby Barlow’s pace, Sale’s consistency, etc. I do think you’re better off betting on the ability than making a difficult judgment about a player’s competitiveness/willingness to learn and/or adjust their habits.

(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; photos of Eduard Sale and Nate Danielson: Minas Panagiotakis, Jonathan Kozub / Getty Images)