Narratives of the future shape fertility in uncertain times. Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

R Guetto, G Bazzani, D Vignoli - 2020 - ideas.repec.org
2020ideas.repec.org
The sociological and demographic literatures have widely demonstrated that fertility
decisions are shaped by individuals' previous life experiences and socioeconomic status
�€“the" shadow of the past". However, rising uncertainty in contemporary societies
necessitates an analytical framework that acknowledges the influence of the future in the
fertility decision-making process. Based on the Narrative Framework, we argue that personal
narratives of the future, and their constitutive elements of expectations and imaginaries�…
The sociological and demographic literatures have widely demonstrated that fertility decisions are shaped by individuals' previous life experiences and socioeconomic status �€“ the "shadow of the past". However, rising uncertainty in contemporary societies necessitates an analytical framework that acknowledges the influence of the future in the fertility decision-making process. Based on the Narrative Framework, we argue that personal narratives of the future, and their constitutive elements of expectations and imaginaries �€“ the "shadow of the future" �€“ represent crucial drivers of fertility intentions under conditions of uncertainty. Our arguments are tested empirically by exploiting the exogenous uncertainty shock provided by the COVID-19 pandemic, and unique data we collected during the Italian lockdown. Results suggest that, because of COVID-induced uncertainty, subjective perceptions and personal narratives of the future �€“ also shaped by media shared narratives �€“ gain the upper hand over the shadow of the past in influencing fertility intentions. In addition, we provide evidence of a causal impact of shared narratives of the future on fertility intentions through an online experiment simulating a "real" exposition of the respondents to a new media narrative on the expected length of the emergency.
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