Don't look now
Good's theorem is the apparent platitude that it is always rational to 'look before you leap': to
gather information before making a decision when doing so is free. We argue that Good's
theorem is not platitudinous and may be false. And we argue that the correct advice is rather
to 'make your act depend on the answer to a question'. Looking before you leap is rational
when, but only when, it is a way to do this.
gather information before making a decision when doing so is free. We argue that Good's
theorem is not platitudinous and may be false. And we argue that the correct advice is rather
to 'make your act depend on the answer to a question'. Looking before you leap is rational
when, but only when, it is a way to do this.
Abstract
Good’s theorem is the apparent platitude that it is always rational to ‘look before you leap’: to gather information before making a decision when doing so is free. We argue that Good’s theorem is not platitudinous and may be false. And we argue that the correct advice is rather to ‘make your act depend on the answer to a question’. Looking before you leap is rational when, but only when, it is a way to do this.
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