Modelling the economic and clinical burden of non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis in East Asia: data from Hong Kong

RP Tampi, VWS Wong, GLH Wong…�- Hepatology�…, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
RP Tampi, VWS Wong, GLH Wong, SST Shu, HLY Chan, J Fung, M Stepanova
Hepatology Research, 2020Wiley Online Library
Aim Non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the progressive form of non‐alcoholic fatty liver
disease (NAFLD) and prevalence is rising in Asia due to increasing rates of urbanization,
sedentary lifestyles, and poor nutrition. Methods We built a Markov model with 20‐year
horizon to estimate the burden of NASH in Hong Kong. Cohort size was determined by
population size, prevalence of NAFLD, and incidence of NASH in 2017. Health states
include hepatic steatosis, fibrosis stages 0–3, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis�…
Aim Non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the progressive form of non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and prevalence is rising in Asia due to increasing rates of urbanization, sedentary lifestyles, and poor nutrition. Methods We built a Markov model with 20‐year horizon to estimate the burden of NASH in Hong Kong. Cohort size was determined by population size, prevalence of NAFLD, and incidence of NASH in 2017. Health states include hepatic steatosis, fibrosis stages 0–3, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, post‐liver transplant, and liver‐related, cardiovascular, and background mortality. Transition probabilities were estimated from published reports and we converted 2017 Gazette price from the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong to US dollars. We discounted costs by 3% annually. Health utilities were assumed to be the same as in the USA. Results Non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis will cost 1.32billionand124livertransplantsover20years,withaveragecostperperson‐yearof 257. Sensitivity analyses show our model is robust in predicting costs for the prevalent population but likely overestimates costs for the incident population. Conclusions Non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis will contribute to a significant clinical and economic burden in Hong Kong over the next two decades. Due to the limited number of donors and small number of liver transplants undertaken annually, patients with advanced liver disease due to NASH in Hong Kong are more likely to die from NASH than their counterparts in North America and Europe. Thus, rising prevalence of metabolic syndrome in elderly adults in Hong Kong make NASH an important consideration for clinicians and policy makers.
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