Objective: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is increased in SLE and underestimated by general population prediction algorithms. We aimed to develop a novel SLE-specific prediction tool, SLECRISK, to provide a more accurate estimate of CVD risk in SLE.

Methods: We studied patients in the Brigham and Women's Hospital SLE cohort. We collected one-year baseline data including the presence of traditional CVD factors and SLE-related features at cohort enrollment. Ten-year follow-up for the first major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or cardiac death) began at day +1 following the baseline period (index date). ICD-9/10 codes identified MACE were adjudicated by board-certified cardiologists. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression selected SLE-related variables to add to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort Risk Equations 10-year risk Cox regression model. Model fit statistics and performance (sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive value, c-statistic) for predicting moderate/high 10-year risk (≥7.5 %) of MACE were assessed and compared to ACC/AHA, Framingham risk score (FRS), and modified FRS (mFRS). Optimism adjustment internal validation was performed using bootstrapping.

Results: We included 1,243 patients with 90 MACEs (46 MIs, 36 strokes, 19 cardiac deaths) over 8946.5 person-years of follow-up. SLE variables selected for the new prediction algorithm (SLECRISK) were SLE activity (remission/mild vs. moderate/severe), disease duration (years), creatinine (mg/dL), anti-dsDNA, anti-RNP, lupus anticoagulant, anti-Ro positivity, and low C4. The sensitivity for detecting moderate/high-risk (≥7.5 %) of MACE using SLECRISK was 0.74 (95 %CI: 0.65, 0.83), which was better than the sensitivity of the ACC/AHA model (0.38 (95 %CI: 0.28, 0.48)). It also identified 3.4-fold more moderate/high-risk patients than the ACC/AHA. Patients who were moderate/high-risk according to SLECRISK but not ACC/AHA, were more likely to be young women with severe SLE and few other traditional CVD risk factors. Model performance between SLECRISK, FRS, and mFRS were similar.

Conclusion: The novel SLECRISK tool is more sensitive than the ACC/AHA for predicting moderate/high 10-year risk for MACE and may be particularly useful in predicting risk for young females with severe SLE. Future external validation studies utilizing cohorts with more severe SLE are needed.