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. 2023 Sep 4;14(1):5368.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41040-z.

Sustainable reference points for multispecies coral reef fisheries

Jessica Zamborain-Mason  1   2   3 , Joshua E Cinner  4 , M Aaron MacNeil  5 , Nicholas A J Graham  6 , Andrew S Hoey  7   4 , Maria Beger  8   9 , Andrew J Brooks  10 , David J Booth  11 , Graham J Edgar  12 , David A Feary  13 , Sebastian C A Ferse  14   15 , Alan M Friedlander  16   17 , Charlotte L A Gough  18 , Alison L Green  19 , David Mouillot  4   20 , Nicholas V C Polunin  21 , Rick D Stuart-Smith  12 , Laurent Wantiez  22 , Ivor D Williams  23 , Shaun K Wilson  24   25 , Sean R Connolly  7   26
Affiliations

Sustainable reference points for multispecies coral reef fisheries

Jessica Zamborain-Mason et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Sustainably managing fisheries requires regular and reliable evaluation of stock status. However, most multispecies reef fisheries around the globe tend to lack research and monitoring capacity, preventing the estimation of sustainable reference points against which stocks can be assessed. Here, combining fish biomass data for >2000 coral reefs, we estimate site-specific sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries and use these and available catch estimates to assess the status of global coral reef fish stocks. We reveal that >50% of sites and jurisdictions with available information have stocks of conservation concern, having failed at least one fisheries sustainability benchmark. We quantify the trade-offs between biodiversity, fish length, and ecosystem functions relative to key benchmarks and highlight the ecological benefits of increasing sustainability. Our approach yields multispecies sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries using environmental conditions, a promising means for enhancing the sustainability of the world's coral reef fisheries.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Site-specific multispecies sustainable reference points and assessment for coral reef fisheries for the Gompertz-Fox surplus production model.
a, b Combined (i.e., inclusive of among-location variability and parameter uncertainty) site-specific MMSY (multispecies maximum sustainable yield) and BMMSY (biomass that produces multispecies maximum sustainable yield) posterior distributions. Rug plots show the posterior medians for each site given their specific environmental conditions (n = 2053 individual sites). Dashed lines and gray numbers represent the median posterior MMSY and BMMSY for average environmental conditions, respectively. c–h Expected change in MMSY and BMMSY for coral reef fishes with environmental conditions (hard coral cover, ocean productivity, sea surface temperature and whether the reef is an atoll). Line is the posterior median and polygons are 90% uncertainty intervals for atoll and non-atoll reef locations, with all other environmental variables fixed at their average values. See Supplementary Fig. 3 for more details. i, j) Median biomass status (B/BMMSY) and fishing status (C/ MMSY) for each site open to extraction (n = 1903 individual sites). Jittered points are each site, color coded by (i) whether the estimated biomass (B) was above or below site-specific BMMSY (median (B/BMMSY) < 1, red), and (j) whether the estimated per-unit-area catch (C) was above or below site-specific MMSY (median (C/MMSY) > 1, red). Numbers indicate the percentage of sites in each category that were below BMMSY (i) or estimated to be catching above MMSY (j). k Percentage of exploited sites assigned to different fishery status categories based on site-specific catch estimates, median biomass and surplus production curves: red (unsustainable), yellow (warning), turquoise (recovering), and navy blue (in good condition). Sites that have passed one of both reference points (i.e., MMSY and/or BMMSY) are classified as being of conservation concern (Methods). Source data are provided as a Supplementary Data file.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Jurisdiction-level sustainable reference points and jurisdiction-level assessment of exploited reef fish stocks based on available information for the Gompertz-Fox surplus production model.
a, b Combined jurisdiction-level posterior distribution reference points (Methods; Supplementary Fig. 5). Rug plots are the medians for each jurisdiction with biomass data available (n = individual jurisdictions). c Median (dashed line) with 90% uncertainty interval (polygons) surplus production curve for each jurisdiction based on a jurisdiction’s unfished biomass distribution and the posterior community growth rate. Darker shading indicates overlap of a larger number of jurisdiction-specific uncertainty intervals. Solid black line is the median surplus for average environmental conditions and dashed black lines are the median surplus for each jurisdiction. d Median jurisdiction fishing status (mean total catch (C; tonnes/km2/y) divided by jurisdiction-specific median MMSY (n = 108 individual jurisdictions). e Jurisdiction biomass status (median weighted biomass (B; tonnes/km2) divided by a jurisdiction’s median BMMSY; n = 49 individual jurisdictions). f Fishery status based on jurisdiction-specific catch, median biomass and surplus production curve estimates (n = 49 individual jurisdictions) color-coded by category: red (unsustainable), yellow (warning), turquoise (recovering), and navy blue (in good condition). Bubble size in (e) and (f) is scaled according to the number of sampled sites in each jurisdiction for which biomass values were recorded (ranging from 1 to 263). Diagrams to the right represent the categories based on total catch (y axes) and/or standing stock biomass (x axes). See Supplementary Figs. 5, 6 to see jurisdiction-specific reference point and status distributions (that show uncertainty for each jurisdiction). Source data are provided as a Supplementary Data file.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Trade-offs among production and ecosystem metrics.
a Surplus production curve and expected values of ecosystem metrics as a function of biomass. Surplus production curve (black) is the posterior median (and 90% uncertainty intervals) sustainable yield for most common (for categorical variables) and average (for quantitative variables) sampling and environmental conditions. Ecosystem metrics are generalized additive model fits with 95% confidence intervals along the surplus production biomass gradient using metrics that are consistent with the surplus production curve conditions (marginalized for sampling and environmental covariates). Vertical lines represent the median biomass values at MMSY (BMMSY) and pretty good multispecies yield (BPGMY,l is the lower bound and BPGMY,U is the upper bound) for average environmental conditions. Density distributions represent mean fish length (b; n = 1763 individual sites), total fish species richness (c; n = 1753), presence/absence of top predators (d; n = 1763), and parrotfish scraping potential (e; n = 1116), of our sampled reefs open to extraction correcting for sampling effects. Note that (i) color scales in (b–e) are also the scales for the respective colors in (a), and (ii) “(a)” shows the probability of observing top-predators and “e” the density distribution of presence/absence of top predators. See Supplementary Fig. 7 for individual ecosystem metric relationships and distributions along the full range of biomass values. f–i Distribution of ecosystem metrics in reefs open to extraction separated as to whether the reefs were above or below site-specific BMMSY reference points. Jittered points are individual reef sites. In (b–i) dark colored density plots represent fished reefs with some level of gear or effort restrictions in place, and light-colored density plots represent openly fished reefs. Source data are provided as a Supplementary Data file.
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