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. 2023 Apr 1:867:161761.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161761. Epub 2023 Feb 2.

California's early transition to electric vehicles: Observed health and air quality co-benefits

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California's early transition to electric vehicles: Observed health and air quality co-benefits

Erika Garcia et al. Sci Total Environ. .

Abstract

The transition to electric vehicles is projected to have considerable public health co-benefits, but most evidence regarding air quality and health impacts comes from projections rather than real-world data. We evaluated whether population-level respiratory health and air quality co-benefits were already detectable at the relatively low levels of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs: battery electric, plug-in hybrid, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle) adoption in California, and evaluated the ZEV adoption gap in underserved communities. We conducted a zip code-level ecologic study relating changes in annual number of ZEVs (nZEV) per 1000 population from 2013 to 2019 to: (i) annual average monitored nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations and (ii) annual age-adjusted asthma-related emergency department (ED) visit rates, while considering educational attainment. The average nZEV increased from 1.4 per 1000 population in 2013 (standard deviation [SD]: 2.1) to 14.7 per 1000 in 2019 (SD: 14.7). ZEV adoption was considerably slower in zip codes with lower educational attainment (p < 0.0001). A within-zip code increase of 20 ZEVs per 1000 was associated with a - 0.41 ppb change in annual average NO2 (95 % confidence interval [CI]:-1.12, 0.29) in an adjusted model. A within-zip code increase of 20 ZEVs per 1000 population was associated with a 3.2 % decrease in annual age-adjusted rate of asthma-related ED visits (95 % CI:-5.4, -0.9). Findings were supported by a variety of sensitivity analyses. Observational data on the early phase ZEV transition in California provided a natural experiment, enabling us to document the first real-world associations between increasing nZEV and changes in air quality and health. Results suggest co-benefits of the early-phase transition to ZEVs but with an adoption gap among populations with lower socioeconomic status which threatens the equitable distribution of possible co-benefits.

Keywords: Air pollution; Asthma; Climate change; Respiratory health; Traffic-related pollution.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest Erika Garcia reports stock in Tesla Inc., Rivian Automotive Inc., and Ford Motor Co., all outside the submitted work, a conflict of interest (COI) managed by the USC Health Science Campus Conflict of Interest Review Committee including independent review of data collection and analyses. Sandrah Eckel reports funding from the National Institutes of Health and a spouse who works in emissions testing for a major automobile manufacturer, a COI managed by the USC Health Science Campus Conflict of Interest Review Committee including independent review of data collection and analyses. All other authors declare they have no actual or potential competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Longitudinal trends, from 2013–2019 in: (a) number of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) per 1,000 population in 1,238 California zip codes, (b) annual average nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations observed at 107 California monitoring stations, and (c) annual age-adjusted rate of asthma-related emergency department (ED) visits per 10,000 in 1,238 California zip codes. Color indicates educational attainment (% of adults age 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree) at the zip code level, from lower (purple) to higher (green).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Crude association between predicted 7-year change in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) versus 7-year change in number of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) based on data from 102 air monitoring sites in 91 zip codes in California, with color indicating zip code level educational attainment (low: purple; high: green).

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