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. 2023;58(2):188-197.
doi: 10.1080/10826084.2022.2151315. Epub 2022 Dec 5.

Exploring Potential Bellwethers for Drug-Related Mortality in the General Population: A Case for Sentinel Surveillance of Trends in Drug Use among Nightclub/Festival Attendees

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Exploring Potential Bellwethers for Drug-Related Mortality in the General Population: A Case for Sentinel Surveillance of Trends in Drug Use among Nightclub/Festival Attendees

Joseph J Palamar et al. Subst Use Misuse. 2023.

Abstract

Background: Drug-related deaths in the US continue to increase. Sentinel surveillance of high-risk populations can provide early warning for shifts in trends. Nightclub/festival attendees have high levels of drug use, so we explored whether use among this population can serve as a potential bellwether or indicator for use-related mortality in the general population.Methods: Trends in past-year cocaine and methamphetamine use were estimated from nightclub/festival attendees in New York City (NYC) and among NY residents, and trends were estimated for related death rates in NYC (2014/15-2019/20). Using national data from England and Wales (2010-2019), trends in past-year cocaine and ecstasy use (among the full population and among nightclub attendees) and related deaths were also estimated.Results: In NY/NYC, cocaine use remained stable in the general population, but use among nightclub/festival attendees and cocaine-related deaths doubled. Methamphetamine use among nightclub/festival attendees and death rates also more than doubled while use among the general population remained stable. In UK countries, increases in cocaine and ecstasy use were larger for infrequent/frequent nightclub attendees than in the general population, with 3.6- and 8-fold increases in related deaths, respectively. In UK countries, the association between nightclub attendance and death rates increased in a dose-response-like manner with larger associations detected when death rates were lagged by one year.Conclusions: Patterns of use among nightclub/festival attendees, more so than patterns in the general population, were similar to patterns of drug-related deaths. Use among this subpopulation could possibly serve as a bellwether for use-related outcomes. Continued surveillance is recommended.

Keywords: Sentinel surveillance; cocaine; ecstasy; methamphetamine; nightclub attendees.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interest

Dr. Palamar has consulted for Alkermes. The authors have no other potential conflicts to declare.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Trends in estimated past-year use of cocaine and related deaths in NY/NYC
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Trends in estimated past-year use of methamphetamine and related deaths in NY/NYC
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Trends in estimated past-year use of cocaine and related deaths in England and Wales
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Trends in estimated past-year use of ecstasy and related deaths in England and Wales

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