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. 2022 Mar 30:67:1604353.
doi: 10.3389/ijph.2022.1604353. eCollection 2022.

Tobacco Taxes as the Unsung Hero: Impact of a Tax Increase on Advancing Sustainable Development in Colombia

Norman Maldonado  1   2 , Blanca Llorente  2   3 , Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu  2   4 , Belen Saenz-de-Miera  2   5 , Prabhat Jha  2   6 , Geordan Shannon  2   7
Affiliations

Tobacco Taxes as the Unsung Hero: Impact of a Tax Increase on Advancing Sustainable Development in Colombia

Norman Maldonado et al. Int J Public Health. .

Abstract

Objective: Tobacco taxes are a well-established cost-effective policy to prevent Noncommunicable Diseases. This paper evaluates the expected effects of a tobacco tax increase on the Sustainable Development Goals in Colombia. Methods: We use microsimulation to build an artificial society that mimics the observed characteristics of Colombia's population, and from there we simulate the behavioral response to a tax increase of COP$4,750 (an increase that has been discussed by policy makers and legislators) and the subsequent effects in all SDGs. Results: The tobacco tax hike reduces the number of smokers (from 4.51 to 3.45 MM smokers) and smoking intensity, resulting in a drop in the number of cigarettes smoked in Colombia (from 332.3 to 215.5 MM of 20-stick packs). Such reduction is expected to decrease premature mortality, healthcare costs, poverty and people facing catastrophic expenditure on healthcare, to increase health, income and gender equity, and to strengthen domestic resource mobilization even in the presence of illicit cigarettes. Conclusion: Tobacco taxes are an effective intervention for public health and a powerful instrument to advance on the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. Relevance: A comprehensive analysis of the impact of tobacco taxes on all areas of Sustainable Development is missing in the empirical literature. Such perspective is needed to break the barriers for further tobacco tax increases by gathering wider societal support, especially from stakeholders and key decision makers from development areas other than health. SDG Nr: SDG3 (health), SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 4 (education), SDG 5 (gender equality), SDG6 (water), SDG10 (inequality), SDG12 (responsible production and consumption), SDG17 (partnerships).

Keywords: NCDs prevention; artificial societies; individual heterogeneity; microsimulation; sustainable development; tobacco and equity; tobacco taxes.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Building blocks of the microsimulation model (Colombia, 2019).
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Distribution of smoking intensity in cigarettes per day (Colombia, 2019).
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Concentration curve of smokers (Colombia, 2019).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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