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. 2022 Mar 2;17(3):e0264757.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264757. eCollection 2022.

The estimated benefits of increasing cigarette prices through taxation on the burden of disease and economic burden of smoking in Nigeria: A modeling study

Ariel Bardach  1   2 , Agustín Casarini  1 , Federico Rodriguez Cairoli  1 , Adedeji Adeniran  3 , Marco Castradori  3 , Precious Akanonu  3 , Chukwuka Onyekwena  3 , Natalia Espinola  1 , Andrés Pichon-Riviere  1   2 , Alfredo Palacios  1
Affiliations

The estimated benefits of increasing cigarette prices through taxation on the burden of disease and economic burden of smoking in Nigeria: A modeling study

Ariel Bardach et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: Globally, tobacco consumption continues to cause a considerable burden of preventable diseases. Although the smoking prevalence in Nigeria may be declining over the last years, the absolute number of active smokers remains one of the highest in Africa. Little is known about the disease burden and economic costs of cigarette smoking in Nigeria. Consequently, there is an evidence gap to inform the design and implementation of an effective policy for tobacco control.

Methods: We applied a microsimulation model to estimate the burden attributable to smoking in terms of morbidity, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and direct medical costs and indirect costs (e.g., productivity loss costs, informal caregivers' costs). We also modeled the health and economic impact of different scenarios of tobacco price increases through taxes.

Results: We estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 29,000 annual deaths in Nigeria. This burden corresponds to 816,230 DALYs per year. In 2019, the total economic burden attributable to tobacco was estimated at ₦ 634 billion annually (approximately U$D 2.07 billion). If tobacco cigarettes' prices were to be raised by 50% through taxes, more than 30,000 deaths from smoking-attributable diseases would be averted in 10 years, with subsequent savings on direct and indirect costs of ₦597 billion and increased tax revenue collection of ₦369 billion.

Conclusion: In Nigeria, tobacco is responsible for substantial health and economic burden. Increasing tobacco taxes could reduce this burden and produce net economic benefits.

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Conflict of interest statement

NO authors have competing interests

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Grants and funding

Yes. Funded by International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Project Number: 108825 Organization who received the award: Centre for the study of the economies of Africa (CSEA) The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.