A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications

William L Geary^{1

2}, Michael Bode³, Tim S Doherty^{4

5}, Elizabeth A Fulton^{6

7}, Dale G Nimmo⁸, Ayesha I T Tulloch⁵, Vivitskaia J D Tulloch^{9

10}, Euan G Ritchie⁴

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia. wlge@deakin.edu.au.
² Biodiversity Division, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, East Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. wlge@deakin.edu.au.
³ School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
⁴ Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia.
⁵ School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
⁶ CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
⁷ Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
⁸ School of Environmental Science, Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, Australia.
⁹ Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia.
¹⁰ Department of Forest and Conservation Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

PMID: 32929239
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01298-8

Review

A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications

William L Geary et al. Nat Ecol Evol. 2020 Nov.

. 2020 Nov;4(11):1459-1471.

doi: 10.1038/s41559-020-01298-8. Epub 2020 Sep 14.

Authors

William L Geary^{1

2}, Michael Bode³, Tim S Doherty^{4

5}, Elizabeth A Fulton^{6

7}, Dale G Nimmo⁸, Ayesha I T Tulloch⁵, Vivitskaia J D Tulloch^{9

10}, Euan G Ritchie⁴

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia. wlge@deakin.edu.au.
² Biodiversity Division, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, East Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. wlge@deakin.edu.au.
³ School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
⁴ Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia.
⁵ School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
⁶ CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
⁷ Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
⁸ School of Environmental Science, Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, Australia.
⁹ Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia.
¹⁰ Department of Forest and Conservation Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

PMID: 32929239
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01298-8

Abstract

Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm - managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for interactions, feedback loops and dependencies between ecosystem components is therefore fundamental to understanding and managing ecosystems. We provide an overview of the main types of ecosystem models and their uses, and discuss challenges related to modelling complex ecological systems. Existing modelling approaches typically attempt to do one or more of the following: describe and disentangle ecosystem components and interactions; make predictions about future ecosystem states; and inform decision making by comparing alternative strategies and identifying important uncertainties. Modelling ecosystems is challenging, particularly when balancing the desire to represent many components of an ecosystem with the limitations of available data and the modelling objective. Explicitly considering different forms of uncertainty is therefore a primary concern. We provide some recommended strategies (such as ensemble ecosystem models and multi-model approaches) to aid the explicit consideration of uncertainty while also meeting the challenges of modelling ecosystems.

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A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications

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A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications

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