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. 2019 Oct;38(10):1646-1652.
doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00258.

US Firearm-Related Mortality: National, State, And Population Trends, 1999-2017

Jason E Goldstick  1 , April Zeoli  2 , Christina Mair  3 , Rebecca M Cunningham  4
Affiliations

US Firearm-Related Mortality: National, State, And Population Trends, 1999-2017

Jason E Goldstick et al. Health Aff (Millwood). 2019 Oct.

Abstract

Nationwide firearm-related mortality rates increased in 2015-17 after remaining relatively stable in 1999-2014. Recent increases are reflected across most states and demographics to varying degrees, which suggests a worsening epidemic of firearm mortality that is geographically and demographically broad. In both time periods the fractions of firearm deaths due to suicide and homicide remained consistent.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Firearm; Health policy; Mortality; Mortality rates; Violence.

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Figures

EXHIBIT 1
EXHIBIT 1. Age-adjusted rates of firearm mortality per 100,000 population in the US, 1999–2017
SOURCE Authors’ analysis of data for 1999–2017 from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) tool maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. NOTE The trend line was superimposed to smooth out the year-to-year fluctuation in the data.
EXHIBIT 2
EXHIBIT 2. Age-adjusted rates of firearm mortality per 100,000 person-years in the US in 1999–2014 and 2015–17, by sex, race/ethnicity, and mechanism of death
SOURCE Authors’ analysis of data for 1999–2017 from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) tool maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
EXHIBIT 3
EXHIBIT 3. Rates of firearm mortality per 100,000 person-years in the US in 1999–2014 and 2015–17, by age
SOURCE Authors’ analysis of data for 1999–2017 from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) tool maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. NOTE All rates are crude (that is, not age adjusted).
EXHIBIT 4
EXHIBIT 4. Age-adjusted firearm mortality rate trajectories in four states, 1999–2017
SOURCE Authors’ analysis of data for 1999–2017 from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) tool maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. NOTES The trend lines were superimposed to smooth out the year-to-year fluctuation in the data. The states selected for this exhibit were chosen as typical examples of the three most common growth patterms—nearly linear increase (Ohio), a plateau followed by an increase (Arkansas), and a roughly bowl-shaped trajectory (Illinois)—and, in addition, a nonlinear but generally decreasing trajectory (Nevada).
EXHIBIT 5
EXHIBIT 5. Percent changes in fitted firearm mortality rates, by state, from 1999 to 2017
SOURCE Authors’ analysis of data for 1999–2017 from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) tool maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. NOTES The changes were calculated with regard to the fitted trends, rather than the observed rates, to characterize the trend as opposed to the values in only 1999 and 2017. The data used to produce the fitted trends were age-adjusted rates.
EXHIBIT 6
EXHIBIT 6. Between-year variation in firearm mortality, by state, 1999–2017
SOURCE Authors’ analysis of data for 1999–2017 from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) tool maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. NOTES The measure of variation was the standard deviation of the values for each year that made up the fitted trend. Small values indicate a nearly constant trajectory (for example, a completely constant trajectory would produce a standard deviation of zero), and larger values indicate a more variable trajectory. The data used to produce the fitted trends were age-adjusted rates.
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Comment in

  • Firearm-Related Mortality In The US.
    Budrys G. Budrys G. Health Aff (Millwood). 2020 Jan;39(1):169-170. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2019.01608. Health Aff (Millwood). 2020. PMID: 31905060 No abstract available.

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