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. 2017 May 10;12(5):e0177393.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177393. eCollection 2017.

Eight habitats, 38 threats and 55 experts: Assessing ecological risk in a multi-use marine region

Zoë A Doubleday  1 , Alice R Jones  1 , Marty R Deveney  2 , Tim M Ward  2 , Bronwyn M Gillanders  1
Affiliations

Eight habitats, 38 threats and 55 experts: Assessing ecological risk in a multi-use marine region

Zoë A Doubleday et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Identifying the relative risk human activities pose to a habitat, and the ecosystem services they provide, can guide management prioritisation and resource allocation. Using a combination of expert elicitation to assess the probable effect of a threat and existing data to assess the level of threat exposure, we conducted a risk assessment for 38 human-mediated threats to eight marine habitats (totalling 304 threat-habitat combinations) in Spencer Gulf, Australia. We developed a score-based survey to collate expert opinion and assess the relative effect of each threat to each habitat, as well as a novel and independent measure of knowledge-based uncertainty. Fifty-five experts representing multiple sectors and institutions participated in the study, with 6 to 15 survey responses per habitat (n = 81 surveys). We identified key threats specific to each habitat; overall, climate change threats received the highest risk rankings, with nutrient discharge identified as a key local-scale stressor. Invasive species and most fishing-related threats, which are commonly identified as major threats to the marine environment, were ranked as low-tier threats to Spencer Gulf, emphasising the importance of regionally-relevant assessments. Further, we identified critical knowledge gaps and quantified uncertainty scores for each risk. Our approach will facilitate prioritisation of resource allocation in a region of increasing social, economic and environmental importance, and can be applied to marine regions where empirical data are lacking.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Location of study region (Spencer Gulf, South Australia).
Fig 2
Fig 2. Risk assessment framework used to derive uncertainty and risk scores for each threat-habitat combination.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Comparison of risk scores from expert elicitation survey within and between habitats.
Each point represents a risk score (most-likely scenario) for a threat-habitat combination and the grey horizontal line represents the mean of those risk scores.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Comparison of risk level among threats, across all habitats.
Size and colour of the words are weighted according to the total risk score (the sum of all habitat specific scores) for each threat (i.e. the larger and redder word = greater threat).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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Grants and funding

Funding was provided by the Environment Institute, University of Adelaide and the consortia comprising the Spencer Gulf Ecosystem Development Initiative (SGEDI). https://www.adelaide.edu.au/environment/water/spencer-gulf/. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.