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. 2015 Jun 30:4:e08347.
doi: 10.7554/eLife.08347.

The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

Moritz U G Kraemer  1 , Marianne E Sinka  1 , Kirsten A Duda  1 , Adrian Q N Mylne  2 , Freya M Shearer  2 , Christopher M Barker  3 , Chester G Moore  4 , Roberta G Carvalho  5 , Giovanini E Coelho  5 , Wim Van Bortel  6 , Guy Hendrickx  7 , Francis Schaffner  7 , Iqbal R F Elyazar  8 , Hwa-Jen Teng  9 , Oliver J Brady  2 , Jane P Messina  1 , David M Pigott  1 , Thomas W Scott  10 , David L Smith  1 , G R William Wint  11 , Nick Golding  2 , Simon I Hay  2
Affiliations

The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

Moritz U G Kraemer et al. Elife. .

Abstract

Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.

Keywords: Ae. aegypti; Ae. albopictus; Aedes; ecology; epidemiology; global health.

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Conflict of interest statement

SIH: Reviewing editor, eLife.

The other authors declare that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Global map of the predicted distribution of Ae. aegypti.
The map depicts the probability of occurrence (from 0 blue to 1 red) at a spatial resolution of 5 km × 5 km. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.004
Figure 1—figure supplement 1.
Figure 1—figure supplement 1.. Effect plots of covariates used in this study showing the marginal effect of each covariate on probability of presence for Ae. aegypti (1) and Ae. albopictus (2): enhanced vegetation index (EVI) annual mean (A); Enhanced vegetation index—range (B); annual monthly maximum precipitation (C); annual monthly minimum precipitation (D); temperature suitability (E); urban areas (F); peri-urban areas (G).
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.005
Figure 1—figure supplement 2.
Figure 1—figure supplement 2.. Set of covariate layers used to predict the ecological niche of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus described in detail in the ‘Materials and methods’ section; (A) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) annual mean, (B) EVI annual range, (C) annual monthly maximum precipitation, (D) annual monthly minimum precipitation, (E) temperature suitability for Ae. albopictus, (F) temperature suitability for Ae. aegypti, (G) rural, peri-urban and urban classification layer.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.006
Figure 1—figure supplement 3.
Figure 1—figure supplement 3.. Visualization of pixel level uncertainty calculated using the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals associated with the prediction maps for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B).
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.007
Figure 1—figure supplement 4.
Figure 1—figure supplement 4.. The distribution of the occurrence database for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B) plotted on the underlying prediction surface.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.008
Figure 2.
Figure 2.. Global map of the predicted distribution of Ae. albopictus.
The map depicts the probability of occurrence (from 0 blue to 1 red) at a spatial resolution of 5 km × 5 km. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.009
Figure 3.
Figure 3.. Predicted probability of occurrence of Ae. albopictus in Europe (A) and the United States (B), regions in which Ae. albopictus is rapidly expanding its range.
Points represent known occurrences (transient [triangles] or established [circles]) until the end of 2013. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.010
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