Objective: This prospective study investigated moderator variable models of the interrelationships among stressful events, coping motives for drinking, and current alcohol use on subsequent alcohol use across a 5-year window with middle-aged adults.

Method: Data from women (n = 716; M(age) = 55.29 years at baseline) and men (n = 505; M(age) = 57.57 years at baseline) were used to examine theory-guided hypotheses that current levels of alcohol use would interact with stressful events and coping motives for drinking to predict higher levels of alcohol use across time. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women.

Results: After we controlled for several potentially important covariates (i.e., age, educational level, family income, and marital status), prospective regression analyses supported moderator effects for current alcohol use and stressful events as predictors of changes in alcohol use, and a somewhat weaker consistency of moderator effects for current alcohol use and coping motives for drinking as predictors of changes in alcohol use. For example, higher levels of baseline alcohol involvement in conjunction with higher levels of stress predicted higher levels of alcohol use and alcohol problems 5 years later. Similarly, higher levels of coping motives and higher levels of heavy episodic drinking predicted higher levels of heavy episodic drinking among women 5 years later.

Conclusions: The findings were discussed from an alcohol-stress vulnerability model of affect regulation and a positive regulatory feedback loop perspective wherein conditional relationships among baseline alcohol use indicators, stressful events, and coping drinking motives predicted greater alcohol involvement, especially problematic use, across time.