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Review
. 2005 Jan 29;360(1453):21-46.
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2004.1580.

Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries

Serge M Garcia  1 , Richard J R Grainger
Affiliations
Review

Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries

Serge M Garcia et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. .

Abstract

Predicting global fisheries is a high-order challenge but predictions have been made and updates are needed. Past forecasts, present trends and perspectives of key parameters of the fisheries--including potential harvest, state of stocks, supply and demand, trade, fishing technology and governance--are reviewed in detail, as the basis for new forecasts and forecasting performance assessment. The future of marine capture fisheries will be conditioned by the political, social and economic evolution of the world within which they operate. Consequently, recent global scenarios for the future world are reviewed, with the emphasis on fisheries. The main driving forces (e.g. global economic development, demography, environment, public awareness, information technology, energy, ethics) including aquaculture are described. Outlooks are provided for each aspect of the fishery sector. The conclusion puts these elements in perspective and offers the authors' personal interpretation of the possible future pathway of fisheries, the uncertainty about it and the still unanswered questions of direct relevance in shaping that future.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
State of world fish stock items in (a) 2003 and in (b) 1974–2003. U, underexploited; M, moderately exploited; F, fully exploited; O, overfished; D, depleted; R, recovering.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Percentage of major marine fishery resources in various phases of development with five-year intervals: 1950–2001. U, undeveloped; D, developing; M, mature; S, senescent; R, recovering. (Modified from Grainger & Garcia (2004).)
Figure 3
Figure 3
State of the main world fisheries resources in (a) 2000 and (b) 1952–2000 trend. Abbreviations as in figure 2.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Evolution and projection of marine fisheries supply.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Total value of exports (all sources) and annual relative growth rate (data FAO-FIDI).
Figure 6
Figure 6
Trade surplus/deficit by region (1976–2000) (data from FAO-FIDI).
Figure 7
Figure 7
Number of decked fishing vessels in the world fleet. (Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.)
Figure 8
Figure 8
China’s vessels over 100 GT.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Number of vessels in 2002 by age of build (thick line) and deletions in 2001–2002 (thin line).
Figure 10
Figure 10
Rate of deletion of vessels against age.
Figure 11
Figure 11
Estimated recruitment and total registered fleet size (vessels over 100 t).
Figure 12
Figure 12
Relation between new registrations and reported distant-water fishery landings. (a) Time series; (b) correlation.
Figure 13
Figure 13
Main characteristics of the present and future scenarios (see § 4).
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