Publicação de Market Analysis Brasil

Elections are important for democracy, so it is freedom and commitment to serious, rigourous generation of knowledge about electoral behavior, a major component of the booming field of political behavior and public opinion research. Exactly what a community such as WAPOR Latin America is about and stands for. This association I am proud to chair is the Latin America’s largest and most active community of pollsters, opinion research professionals, and expert scholars. I elaborate this further in this article.

BRAZIL RECOGNIZES THAT VENEZUELA BROKE THE BARBADOS AGREEMENT (2023) WHICH SET RULES FOR DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS IN VENEZUELA Despite all pieces of evidence widespread in international media and several UN Human Rights Reports, Brazilian President Lula da Silva always supported his Foro de São Paulo fellow Nicolas Maduro as a democrat and Venezuela as a country with "excessive human rights". Well, 5,4 million Venezuelan citizens emigrated later, several opposition leaders being tortured and murdered, and the Barbados Agreement (2023) setting the rules for democratic elections, Brazilian President Lula da Silva determined the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Relations to issue a note criticizing VEN electoral decisions to block the candidacy of Corina Yoris, who replaced Maria Corina Machado. The VEN State criticized the note, saying that VEN won´t accept foreign intervention in domestic issues. For Lula da Silva the political fact enhances his opposition, such as Jair Bolsonaro, who always says/said that VEN is a communist dictatorship which violates human rights. Going through a time when the polls display the fall of Lula´s popularity, Lula´s bet on VEN motivated by ideological blindness and hidden agendas is now in a setback. An election with only one candidate where the opposition cannot take part is a huge farce, the utmost demonstration of its dictatorial regime. #lulafakedemocrat #lulasupportdicatators #lulafriendofputin #lulandmaduro #lulaleftfascist #lulafakedemocrat #lulaisalier https://lnkd.in/dUsv66RZ

Last week, Óscar Barbosa, spokesperson of Guinea-Bissau ruler Umaro Sissoco Embaló, justified the regime’s failure to set dates for presidential and legislative elections due this year to a lack of funds and international aid. Guinea-Bissau has been without a legislature since Embaló controversially dissolved the opposition-controlled parliament in December 2023, invoking a purported “failed coup.” The move came after lawmakers voted down his efforts to increase his powers. In February, Embaló publicly pledged to organize legislative elections as early as March and before June. Guinea-Bissau needs a new parliament so lawmakers can appoint new members of the National Electoral Commission to oversee elections. The terms of the current electoral commissioners have expired. HRF condemns the Umaro Sissoco Embaló regime for using the pretext of a lack of funds to deny the people of Guinea-Bissau the opportunity to elect their representatives. HRF condemns Embaló's ongoing authoritarian moves to subvert democracy.

C’est sera interessant—Dr. Denis who has declared his intention seeking election as President. ‘Potemkin Elected’ DRCongo President Felix T is significantly compromised in ethical matters germane in administrative gross incompetence exacerbating kleptocracy via state managed corruption. However. Do not count this Potemkin Elected’ President out! I strongly believe Felix T aided abetted by National/International vested commercial interests will attempt to ameliorate the electoral outcome—an election outcome being not an election outcome fairly expressing the vote ballot citizen choice decision. Furthermore, I based on privileged information have an idea how Felix T with assistance from his Cadre of Kleptocratic Miscreants intend to influence the vote well prior to the actual Election Day scheduled for December if indeed the election is actually conducted. Inclusion of International Election (Tourists) Observer Missions will only cloud the electoral process to Felix T’s advantage. Imperative DRC National Civil Society Organizations be empowered emboldened with resources instead of resourcing International Election Tourists. Economic Social Privilege in Status obtained via stolen resources is not readily transferred without a fight—sadly to the detriment of DRC’s political social economic publics.

Last Sunday, the Portuguese people elected a new Parliament. The right-wing populist party #Chega (Translated: "Enough") reached 18 % of the votes. In the southern district Faro in the Algarve region, they have become the strongest party by reaching 27 %. Here are all infographics on one website: https://lnkd.in/d9K8S4s8 That is no surprise because the pre-election polls clearly indicated that Chega would see a massive gain in votes. The predictions varied between 15 and 17 %, so they were quite accurate. Just 2 years ago, the party was at only 7 %. One of their main success factors was their omnipresence on social media. And then, there are of course real crisis like the elevated cost of living, the housing (price) crisis, the detoriating national health system, the struggling education system, etc. It is also no surprise that - as any populist movement anywhere in the world - Chega does not present any possible solution. Their political programme is super vague. In fact it merely a collection of "principles" nowhere close to any specific measures. Which is the nature of populist parties: They do not want to be pinned down to anything. But they still have to offer something to their voters. So, instead of offering solutions, they offer a feeling of belonging (aka nationalism) and a punching bag. And that punching bag basically consists of #immigrants and political opponents. One of Chega's main slogans in recent years was and is: "Porgugal precise de uma limpeza!" which means "#Portugal needs to be cleaned!". I'll leave you with your own interpretation of this slogan... Being an #immigrant in Portugal myself, I definately feel less welcomed here, since last Sunday. And what makes Chega's anti-immigrant narrative so bizarre is that according to official portuguese statistics, alone between 2000 - 2023, approxamately 1.000.000 Portuguese have become immigrants in other countries themselves. That makes 10 % of the entire population. So, migration is a part of life for almost every portuguese family. But then again, Chega and other populist parties are not known for following any logical arguments. Their currency and fuel is rage.

A new government in Poland will be good news for the country and the whole EU. But the success of the conservative-liberal-social democratic alliance over the authoritarian national conservatives in Poland is no guarantee for the rest of their European allies ahead of the EP elections in June. There has been a growing popularity of authoritarian politics both on the left and right of the political spectrum. Hungary’s Orban is not losing any traction despite his latest appearance with Putin in Beijing, and Slovakia’s Fico, who is equally supportive of the Russia, will be back in power again. Unless mainstream politics is able to offer growing prosperity and stable security to citizens, the authoritarian voices will keep on gaining traction. My latest thoughts in the Portuguese daily Expresso.

Just before the elections in Poland we met with Maria João Guimarães in Warsaw and had a great talk about the political, social and cultural situation. The full text you can find here --------> https://lnkd.in/dgRyBwSh

The decision of the Constitutional Council and the maintenance of the date of the Senegalese presidential election: Can we hope for a glimmer of democratic hope and institutional force? The events of recent months in Senegal were worrying. A postponement announced, after a cancellation of this postponement by the Constitutional Council. These events have shaken up socio-economic life in Senegal and internationally. Some fought to maintain the election date and respect the constitution. Others wanted chaos or a power takeover by the army. One thing to remember: the solution to resolving a political crisis is the strength of institutions. Although Senegalese democracy is not perfect but it is the most stable with a republican army in the ECOWAS zone. In short, President Macky Sall's decision to respect the decision of the Constitutional Council and not to force it is proof of his political maturity and a glimmer of democratic hope in Senegal. https://lnkd.in/eGi3VYEq

French Election Results Place Country in a Politically Uncertain Limbo! I have just published a detailed analysis in EXAME on the political situation in France after the 2024 legislative elections, where President Emmanuel Macron decided to advance the National Assembly elections following a resounding defeat in the European Parliament elections. Here are some key points from my analysis: 1. Neither Left nor Right: Opposition positions are currently the biggest winners, regardless of the political spectrum. It has never been easier to be in opposition. 2. Under Tension and Polarization: The sentiment of fear (amplified by narratives from all sides) led to the highest voter turnout in France since 1981. 3. Far-right as Part of the Democratic Chessboard: Le Pen's RN will continue to hold a strong opposition and anti-system position, certainly boosting their chances for the 2027 presidential election. I invite everyone to read the full article for a deeper understanding of these issues and to reflect on the future of political instability in France. 👇 Read the full article on EXAME. #France #GlobalPolitics #PoliticalAnalysis #Exame

Angola: The quest for political protection in Washington versus the demonization of different views Washington D.C —The process of demonizing those who think differently, with particular emphasis on the largest opposition party, continues to be an indispensable instrument for João Lourenço to achieve his objectives: to distract attention from the efforts to hold the local elections and the frequent challenges to his incompetence and poor governance. These last two factors are further heightened by his visible political grooming of certain influential members of the MPLA nomenclature, including the awarding of lucrative business opportunities and/or high public positions to their close relatives. By making UNITA the scapegoat for his political incapacity and blaming it for our current political, economic and social crisis, the President of the Republic wants to dictate once and for all the fate of the organization led by Adalberto Costa Junior, before the end of his term. Using “commercial bribery”, moral corruption, and alienation in accordance with pre established principles, the leader of the “comrades” aims to secure control of his political fortunes by enlisting more egregious members of the ruling party. It is therefore likely that João Lourenço will lose immediate political protection from the US administration if Biden loses the November elections, forcing him to form hasty alliances with “some anti-Westerners” within his own party. If the MPLA president achieves a prior political agreement with his radical or even liberal opponents, he will have enough trump cards to crush any “insurgents” within the ruling party during the December meeting. Similarly, he will create the conditions for maintaining the status quo, but he will rely on the services of his traditionally influential lobbying group in Washington if Trump wins. https://lnkd.in/emVSQYcd