António José Duarte

The full UTAO (PBO)'s appraisal of Portuguese public debt developments in 2023 is out. As a percentage of GDP, its gross value falls below 100% for the first time since 2009. One interesting issue explored in this report is the size of bond holdings by general government units (column 2 in the chart below). 23.5 billion € are assets on their balance sheets. According to EU harmonisation rules, they do not count as public debt because the debtor is another general government unit. Yet, they must be serviced until full redemption, no matter who is the bondholder at any time. If the total amount of 23.5 billion € is sold to a different institutional sector, the national public debt increases automatically by this amount and the debt-to-GDP ratio rises to 107.9%. The exposure to sovereign risk by some governmental units increased by an unprecedented amount of 8 billion € in one single year (2023); should the exposure remain at the 2022 level, the debt ratio at the end of 2023 would still exceed the symbolic figure of 100% (102.1% would then be the official ratio). Financial management criteria and political orientations explain the unprecedented exposure jump — details in Section 2.2 of UTAO's report. #utao #pbo #publicdebt #debtconsolidation #baleiras https://lnkd.in/gHHkHrDp

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Economics in a picture from Banco de Portugal: The reduction in public debt interest expenditure in Portugal until 2022 was mainly due to the decrease in the implicit interest rate 🔗 https://lnkd.in/dNW4pkx6 #economicsinapicture

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"𝐅𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 A paradigm shift was required in the current housing scenario and we hope that the new strategy "Construir Portugal", recently announced by the Executive, will bring that much-needed change. The major advantage in the Government's new approach lies in the change of focus to fight this crisis from the demand to encouraging housing supply. This paradigm shift is critical, but suitable and viable policies must follow, enabling housing construction projects' conversion from nonfeasible to feasible". Read the full article by Hugo Santos Ferreira, President of APPII, on Público Imobiliário 👉 https://lnkd.in/ddTdwbmd

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The new municipal surtax rate table presents a differentiated approach, where municipalities with greater economic capacity and higher urban development will face slightly higher rates, while less developed municipalities or those with fewer financial resources will have reduced rates. More information: https://lnkd.in/dZcU4aze #fiscallaw #taxlaw #lawyers #attorneys #belzuzlawyers #legalnoticies #legal

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The new issue of the Portuguese Economic Journal is available now at https://lnkd.in/dB3_8sH9 #PortugueseEconomicJournal #economics #Portugal #appliedeconomics #economictheory #econometrics #macroeconomics #microeconomics

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🌟 Important Update for Golden Visa Investors waiting for renewals🌟 We have some crucial news for those of you who have applied for the 🇵🇹 Golden Visa and are facing challenges with #residencycard renewals. 📢 The Portuguese Government has announced an extension on the validity of all residency cards until June 30th, 2025 👏🏼Moreover, if you have already scheduled your renewal appointment, your residency card will remain valid beyond this date. Please note: ❕This extension is part of Portuguese law and may not be recognized by other #EU countries. We hope this extension provides some relief and eases any concerns regarding your residency status. #GoldenVisa #Residency #InvestorUpdate #AndoProperties #Portugal #Investmentfund #LegalUpdate #InternationalInvestors

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Despite these changes, the housing market has not experienced significant shifts, especially in Lisbon. Property prices in Lisbon have continued to climb, with a 5.8% increase year-on-year as of November, reaching €5,426 per square metre. Demand for property in Portugal remains high, exceeding the available supply. Notably, Lisbon and the Algarve are leading in property value growth, with other regions such as Estoril, Cascais, Comporta, and Sintra also seeing rising property values. The Investment Migration Programme has had a considerable impact on Portugal’s economy, with a total of 12,497 visas issued since its inception. Although recent legislative changes have moved the focus away from property investment, the programme’s overall economic influence remains substantial.

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SIL 2024: realities and surprises of Portuguese real estate Market! This week there was another edition of the Lisbon Real Estate Fair at Parque das Nações in the Pavilions of the Lisbon International Fair (FIL). This edition is marked by the absence of most of the professionals of Portuguese Real Estate mediation, as well as the institutions that license it, such as the Institute of Public Markets for Real Estate and Construction (IMPIC). This year the pulse of the real estate market in Portugal was lacking. Read the full article this week on The Portugal News. #sil2024 #apemip #realestateinportugal #portugalrealestate #cnn #tpn #leadingre #casaiberiarealestate #casaiberia #realestatenews #portugalrealestate #realestateinportugal #reip #imobiliario

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🅢🅞🅛🅘🅓 🅐🅢 🅐 🅡🅞🅒🅚: Fitch Ratings has affirmed the City of Porto's Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'A-' with StableOutlooks. A full list of rating actions is below. The affirmation reflects the unchanged cap on Porto's Long-Term IDRs from the Portuguese sovereign ratings (A-/Stable). 𝗪𝗲 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗼'𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗹𝗲 (𝗦𝗖𝗣) 𝗮𝘁 '𝗮𝗮', reflecting a 'Midrange' risk profile and a payback ratio we expect to be close to 4x under our rating case. #porto #fitchratings

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Meet the selected innovators for the Portugal FinLab’s 5th edition! Get to know the projects for analysis by the Portuguese financial authorities (Banco de Portugal, CMVM - Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários and ASF - Autoridade de Supervisão de Seguros e Fundos de Pensões) 👉https://lnkd.in/dYnakrjU #PortugalFinLab #5PortugalFinLab #financialregulators

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"𝟓𝟎 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭 𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐠𝐚𝐥'𝐬 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐠𝐦? 50 years after the revolution that set the course of our nation, the day when carnations became a national symbol. 25th April 1974 went down in history also for housing policies, among other things, thereby allowing our nation to open up to its citizens the possibility to access decent housing". Read the full article by Hugo Santos Ferreira, President of APPII, on Público Imobiliário

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Housing transactions in Portugal saw a 20% decrease in volume in Q3 2023 compared to Q3 2022. Changes to current tax regimes have triggered substantial demand shocks, potentially jeopardizing the solvency of real estate developers. The tightening of credit conditions, coupled with a significant rise in mortgage rates and a continuous surge in house prices over the past 8 years, have shaped the narrative. #realestate #mortgages #demand Source : BNP Paribas Real Estate

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It was a great pleasure to be the guest speaker and moderator of the last sponsored Event by Banco BiG and GRI Club, in which we discussed many topics surrounding Investors Confidence and Capital Flows in Portugal Real Estate Market. Many valuable insights were shared between us, as members from GRI are very experienced Executives and Exclusive leaders from the Real Estate and Infrastructure Sectors. A special thank you note to Pedro Coutinho and all BiG PWM's Team effort on setting up such a wonderful Event. It was an exciting opportunity to extend my knowledge on the depth of the Housing Affordability Crisis that is a global phenomenon in major developed cities, but is particularly severe in Portugal - Price to Rents and Price to Imcome are unfortunately among the most expensive in the World! The reason for this is diverse: I) Clear Evidence of price distortion from foreign capital after more than 10 years of the most popular Golden Visa Program in all of Europe; II) Acute housing undersupply - Portugal has built in the last 10yr about 1/6 of the housing (EU average is 1/3) that was once delivered in the early 2000's; III) Housing Stock in Portugal is very old and funding outrageously cheap (average debt on Housing mortgages is astonishingly low @Eur 65k and mirrors very low average monthly payments to Banks or Landlords - average of Eur 400 per month), even with 5% interest rates; IV) 70% of dwellings are privately owned, removing the pressure of fire sales and delaying the required price adjustment between the abyss of 2 different worlds - Domestic and Foreign Based; V) Structural Problems in the Construction Value Chain that starts in the Complex Licensing, constant changes in Legislation, limited construction capacity, financing hurdles, labor shortages and higher cost of materials and human capital. With Real Estate prices and demand falling sharply across the world in 2023, prices in Portugal were still marginally pushed higher last year and the cyclical upswing that has been taking hold in the last 6 to 9 months should lead to a further stabilization of prices, even when supranational agencies (IMF and EC) have warned about a possible price-correction. We do expect that Real Estate in Portugal should provide returns below average Inflation in the medium term, but a steep correction is unlikely in the absence of an external shock that could revert the cyclicality of the current Portugal Hot Spot Mania that is a major appeal to Foreign Investors.

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"𝐇𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐰𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬...  A new strategy, a paradigm shift is a quite positive stance. But we need urgent measures that truly make the pointers move concerning more houses that the Portuguese nationals can afford! Before the new housing strategy – "Construir Portugal" – announced by the Government I notice a paradigm shift in the approach to the housing problem in Portugal. We shifted from an demand centered analysis to focus on the supply. And, as I have been saying, the problem mainly lies in the supply, therefore I believe that the perspective of this new strategy is most suitable". Read the full article by Hugo Santos Ferreira, President of APPII, on Público Imobiliário

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🔑 Let's Unlock the Mystery of Rental Deposits in the Portuguese Market 🔍 Greetings, everyone! Today, let's delve into the often misunderstood world of rental deposits. You know, that sum of money tenants typically hand over to landlords at the beginning of a lease agreement (and then wonder where it disappears to), along with prepaying a certain number of months' rent. So, what exactly is a deposit, or caução? It's essentially an insurance amount held by the landlord until the contract is terminated. 🏚 The purpose of this security deposit is to cover any damages that may occur during your tenancy. If you leave the apartment in the same condition as it was at the start of the lease (no drilled holes, no broken walls, no demolished furniture), the landlord should return the entire deposit to you. If repairs are needed, they'll deduct the costs from the deposit. For instance, if you happen to drill holes without the landlord's permission, you have two options: 1) patch and paint them yourself, or 2) leave them as is for the landlord to fix. The question, as always, comes down to a trade-off: either pay for the convenience of your time or handle it yourself to save money. The amount of the deposit tends to increase based on factors like expensive furniture in the apartment, the quality of renovations, and the landlord's level of caution. Typically, it's equal to one month's rent. For example, if your rent is €2.000, your deposit could range from €2.000 to €6.000 or even more. 🐕 Once, I encountered a landlord whose deposit equaled the monthly rent of the apartment. Unfortunately, the previous tenants' dog had been urinating on the floor, irreparably damaging it. The deposit didn't cover the cost of replacing the floor. The landlord, understandably upset, increased the deposit for future tenants to twice the monthly rent. However, to his credit, he didn't specify "No Pets" in the listing, and now we've found tenants with a well-trained Shiba Inu who only does its business outside. So, next time you're entering into a rental agreement, keep these deposit dynamics in mind. It could save you a headache down the line! #PortugalRealEstate #LisbonRealEstate #RentalTips #TenantAdvice 🏡💼

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Embarking on the journey of purchasing property in Portugal can be an exciting endeavor, particularly when considering the option of buying off-plan. Offering potential cost savings and the opportunity for customization, buying off-plan properties has become an attractive choice for investors and homebuyers alike. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of buying off-plan property in Portugal, exploring the benefits, challenges, and key considerations to empower readers in making informed investment decisions in this dynamic real estate market. Contact us now at welcome@portugalresidencyadvisors.com. #relocation #portugallife #livinginportugal #portugal #europe #globalmobility #expatlife #expats #portugalresidency #realestateinvesting #goldenvisa #realestate #citizenshipbyinvestment #portugalgoldenvisa #goldenvisaportugal #propertyinvestment #homebuying #realestateexperts #propertyguide #dreamhome #portugueserealestate #homeownership #investinginproperty #realestatetips #homebuyersguide #portugalproperty #luxuryrealestate #homes #luxuryhomes #realestateagent #luxurylifestyle #mercadoimobiliario #imoveis #realestateportugal #luxury

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