Beata Skawinska

A stronger global economy? More equities, please....   Yesterday (6 June), the ECB trimmed interest rates but gave the market few clues about future cuts. The US Fed might not reduce interest rates at all in 2024. What is happening? Some leading indicators we (at EnCor) use in our cross-asset allocation model (see our chart) are suggesting the global economy is growing faster than commentators expect. This will mean higher trend inflation, likely implying few or no interest rate cuts from G10 Central Banks in the near to medium term. It also means that Equities should be in favour. As we outlined last month in our latest client webinar, we again increased weights in Equities in our clients' portfolios for Q2 2024. #assetallocation #wealthmanagement #equities

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On the occasion of The Network Forum, in vibrant Warsaw, I shared some of the ECSDA thoughts with participants on how CSDs provide scalability for markets: ✔ through consolidation projects, ✔ by establishing CSD Links and passporting (allowing issuance of non-domestic issuers by supporting their law), ✔ working on standardisation and alignment of practices. There are however limits to what CSDs can achieve in a fragmented legal, tax and investor protection environment. As “notaries of financial markets” in the Union, CSDs are asked to apply coherently incoherent rules 🤔 - that contradiction should not be solely for the CSDs to solve. It is a question for all of us in the Union and first, to the authorities: how serious we are about the #CMU? If so, then tackling legal and tax fragmentation to solve the root cause is essential.  Still, we also need to remember that it’s not because of a notary (as efficient and innovative as it can be 😉), that one chooses where to buy an apartment. 🤣  European Central Securities Depositories Association (ECSDA) #PostTrade #CSD The Network Forum

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Yesterday, over 40 people attended the AmCham Tax & Financial Services Committee’s meeting about new tax challenges for business in Poland! Our speakers were Krzysztof Gil, Partner, and Kamil Stefaniak, Tax Manager, from Tax Advisory Deloitte, AmCham member company.   Together with our speakers, we have discussed new obligations regarding withholding tax, including payment of dividends, interest, royalties, or fees for the provision of intangible services made to the U.S. and other entities and intermediaries. Then we dived in tax of shifted profits which is the new regulation imposing 19% tax on specific flows to related entities. We concluded the meeting with discussing ATAD 2. It is the additional condition to recognize tax deductible costs in Poland, especially significant for the U.S. groups. The attendants underlined that different interpretations of tax regulations by the Ministry and tax offices (also depending on locations in Poland) are a real challenge for business in Poland. As the interpretation is not always uniform, an entrepreneur who misinterprets the tax laws or fails to meet tax obligations may face negative consequences. Thank you to our speakers and Piotr Pikuła and Adam Soska, the Co-Chairs of the Committee for moderating the discussion. #AmChamPoland #Tax #Finance #US #Business

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What is the current crypto market situation? 🔎 Despite recent turbulence in the market, it is still possible to believe that the bull run is not over. We learned this from FXMAG's editor-in-chief Dawid Augustyn's YouTube interview with our product manager Jacek Kubiak. Here are the key points: 1/ Bitcoin and the Halving Cycle ⛏ - Historical Halving Cycles: Each halving cycle has shown some patterns but behaved differently each time. Bitcoin's price does not always align with halving predictions. - Current Valuations: Based on historical data, Bitcoin is currently valued higher than expected, suggesting either a higher bottom or an overestimation influenced by ETF approvals. - Future Price Predictions: A model predicts Bitcoin's price post-halving to reach approximately $200,000 by the end of next year. 2/ ETFs on Cryptocurrencies 🏦 - Current and Future ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs have been introduced, and there's anticipation for Ethereum and Solana ETFs. - Regulatory Uncertainty: Ethereum ETF approval is still pending, and the regulatory environment remains cautious and selective. - Potential Impact of ETFs: If Ethereum ETFs get approved, it could open the door for Solana ETF and other major crypto, potentially enhancing market diversification. 3/ The Altcoin Market 📈 - Current State of Altcoins: There's skepticism about many altcoins, as they often lack practical utility and are seen as speculative investments. - Bitcoin’s Dominance: Despite criticism of Bitcoin's older technology, it continues to maintain a strong market position compared to newer projects. - Speculative Nature: The altcoin market is heavily driven by speculation and hype, with a significant risk of pump-and-dump schemes. 4/ Regulatory Environment ⚖ - MICA Regulations: Upcoming regulations (MICA) are intended to bring more order and safety to the cryptocurrency market but may push smaller businesses into the gray market. - Preparedness for Regulation: Companies that are prepared for regulatory changes will likely fare better, while those unprepared may struggle. 5/ General Advice for Investors 🤝 - Caution Against Pump-and-Dump: Investors should be wary of schemes designed to inflate and then rapidly deflate crypto values. - Focus on Established Cryptocurrencies: Beginners are advised to start with well-established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum before exploring the broader market. Concluding remarks? 📝 The crypto market is in a dynamic phase, with potential regulatory and market changes ahead. That's why investors should remain cautious, stay informed about regulatory developments, and know the speculative nature of the market. Watch the full video here (in PL): https://lnkd.in/dtc_BHqg

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Slovak Denník E, an economy-focused affiliate of Denník N, published a piece on potential risks of involving Chinese construction companies in PPP #railway #infrastructure projects in #Slovakia, with my comments on the issue. I have pointed out several problems that China-led infrastructure projects in Europe faced in the past: ➡️ In 2011, the Chinese firm #COVEC won a tender for the construction of a motorway in #Poland, which it could not complete due to a significantly lower bid price than the real cost. COVEC offered a price up to 50% lower than the contracting authority's estimate. ➡️ In #Hungary and #Serbia, Chinese contractors are involved in constructing the Budapest-Belgrade railway. However, the project has been significantly slowed down due to the contractors' inability to guarantee compliance with European #safety standards. At the same time, doubts are circulating around the project regarding its cost and financing through a Chinese loan, compounded by high levels of non-#transparency. ➡️ China was also involved in constructing the Montenegrin highway, built by the China Road and Bridge Corporation and financed by the Export-Import Bank of China. This was a project that the EU initially refused to finance due to its financial unsustainability. As a result of the Chinese financing, #Montenegro's public debt increased significantly and almost caused the state to go #bankrupt. The project has also been linked to #environmental scandals, such as the destruction of the Tara River Gorge, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, during construction. ➡️ The Croatian experience with the construction of the #Pelješac Bridge is also interesting. This was the first infrastructure project to be built by a Chinese contractor and financed with EU funds. While the project was successful, doubts surrounded the tender in which the contract was awarded. The China Road and Bridge Corporation supposedly delivered the lowest price thanks to receiving state aid from the Chinese government. This case led to the adoption of the EU's Foreign Subsidies Regulation (#FSR), under which the #EU Commission is investigating the effects of Chinese state aid on competition in the EU's single market in several cases. ➡️ As FSR is now in force and kicking, there is a risk that any Chinese contractor that would be delivering the PPP projects in Slovakia could also be investigated over whether it receives unfair #subsidies from the Chinese government that contribute to price undercutting, potentially driving European firms out of tenders. ➡️ From an economic point of view, it is necessary to look at several indicators that will influence the attractiveness of such projects - e.g., the extent of involvement of local subcontractors of works and materials, financing conditions (involvement of Chinese banks, interest rates, etc.) 🔗 https://lnkd.in/df2ikikm

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Great achievement for Miasto Poznań! The Oxford Economics Global Cities Index ranks Poznań among the top cities in the world and showcases its thriving and growing economy👏 This ranking covers the largest 1,000 cities globally and highlights the best cities based on Economics, Human capital, Quality of life, Environment, and Governance. Overall, Miasto Poznań is the second-best city in Poland (210), just after the capital city, Warsaw (193). However, Poznań ranks number one🥇in the economics category among Polish cities🔝. The Economics category considers: ✅ Size of the economy (GDP size) ✅ Growth of the economy (GDP growth) ✅ Wealth per person (GDP per person) ✅ Job growth (employment growth) ✅ Economic stability ✅ Economic diversity This recognition positions Poznań as a city with significant investment potential and a promising hub for business development. Congratulations to the Poznań business community and Invest in Poznan👏. #poznan #poland # #topcity #investmentpotential #strongeconomy #business https://lnkd.in/dt-h3V4J).

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👉 As almost every year, Nexia Advicero is one of the Partners of the conference organized by Solarplaza which takes place today in Warsaw. One of the panelists was already Katarzyna Klimkiewicz-Deplano, who presented the latest tax & financial considerations for investing in large-scale Solar PV Projects. Her session topics were among others: 🔹 How to finance a RES project in Poland in the most tax-effective way 🔹 How financial costs impact the tax shield 🔹 How profit distributions are taxed 🔹 The crucial tax burdens having economic impact on the rentability of the project and its profit 🔹 Exit scenario – the appropriate tax measures for exit processes and the post-exit stage #RenewableEnergy #Solar #Renewables #Energy #Energetyka #EnergetykaOdnawialna #SolarplazaSummitPoland #SolarEnergy #AdviceroNexia 

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Two European banks with major operations in Russia — facing mounting pressure to reduce their exposure — are adopting markedly different approaches to regulatory demands for action. Italy’s UniCredit and Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International AG continue to operate profitable units in the country despite multiple public pledges since the invasion of Ukraine to wind them down. Find out what different tacks each bank has taken in Giada Zampano's article below ⬇ https://lnkd.in/e5TSMxf9 #Russia #AMLCFT #AML #Ukraine

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I am honored to share that the next article in my series on FinTech law has been published. In this installment, I set forth the fundamental juridical institutions established by the European PSD2 Directive and their relationship with FinTech companies. I look forward to its practical implications that are going to be described in the next part! 🤓 https://lnkd.in/dixvHc_P #PSD2 #Directive #FinTech #Article #Law

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It is my pleasure to announce that my recent paper, titled "The contribution of profits and production costs to price changes in the Polish economy" is out as a NBP Working Papers No. 370, available to download and read at: https://lnkd.in/d-HndyMr Abstract: A recent discussion on the sources of inflation rise in the period 2022-2023 highlights the role of non-labor components of GDP deflator, calling them profits. The aim of our analysis is to measure profits more carefully, separating them from the cost of capital and to assess their contribution to changes of different measures of prices in the economy. We show that material costs (and especially the prices of materials) are the most important source of variation of gross output deflator, responsible for over 50\% of its variance in the period 1997-2022. The role of profits in general, and after the pandemic in particular, differs between various price measures. They are contributing high to the increases of value added deflator in the period 2021-2023, whereas their contribution to gross output deflator is muted. Labor costs (of which wages are relatively more important than unit efficiency of hours) are an important contribution to both output and value added deflators. The contribution of capital is less important, with a more balanced contributions of capital price and unit efficiency. Moreover, we stress that the most attempts to assess the role of profits in the evolution of prices are based on approximate decompositions. We show that the contributions calculated without the approximation error indicate a lower, although still significant, contribution of profits to price increases in the period 2021-2022. We also present how the cost (or profit) components correlate with prices and we highlight the differences in the role of various components across industries.

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We care about our purpose both globally and locally. Thanks to membership in the Slovak Compliance Circle - SCC, we have shared our knowledge on "Top Trends in the Fight Against Financial Crime". #DoYourThing #INGHubsSlovakia

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Just recently I have been invited by TheVentury - Empowering Innovation to talk about smoke testing. I know it that some believe that banks due to regulatory refraining might not be able to test products before launching them for scale. It is possible though and more importantly, it’s important especially in highly regulated environments! Why? Found it in the video below (Germany only this time) #smoketests #bankinginnovation

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🎉 #CEE24: TOPICS ANNOUNCEMENT 🔊 I'm thinking of forming a separate panel about #embedded #SME #finance at the upcoming #CEE24 SME Banking Conference. While this topic has been discussed much, there aren't many examples when it comes to SME finance. That's why I'd like to 🎉 spotlight two great examples of embedded SME finance from Poland: 1. Embedded #BNPL solutions for B2B by Grupa Pragma (PragmaGO.tech) - non-banking SME lending & factoring company - integrated into the biggest e-commerce platforms in Poland (Allegro, Shoper etc.) In total – 112 e-commerce platforms. Read more➡️ https://lnkd.in/diwf-AFM 2. ING Lease (Polska) launched Lease Now in 2022. Business customers can use Lease Now as a way of payment for their equipment when they buy it online. Read more➡️ https://lnkd.in/duy22HfC ❓Are you interested in diving deeper into this topic❓Are you thinking of offering BNPL for your SME customers? Share your thoughts in the comments🙌 

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What a view :) Photo from the last ESCB Working Group on Financial Accounts and Government Finance Statistics meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania. Very important new developments and constructive conversations. ✌ And many thanks to the organizators from Lietuvos bankas | Bank of Lithuania for the perfect event. #ecb #escb #FinancialAccounts #GovernmentFinance

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Krystian Strabanik Adam Kosmala PKO Bank Polski finances the development of open fibre optic networks in Poland Together with a consortium of seven financial institutions, we have signed a loan agreement with a total value of PLN 2.8 billion with Fiberhost, INEA and related companies. Our stake amounts to PLN 600 million. "Open fibre networks are one of the most effective ways to introduce digital services in areas where residents have limited or no access to high-speed fibre internet. Such infrastructure and the services provided through it are crucial for the effective digital transformation of our country and the pursuit of climate neutrality, in line with the assumptions of the European Green Deal. That is why we are glad that we can financially support Fiberhost and INEA in the implementation of their business targets," says Marcin Majewski, Head of the Corporate Clients Relationship Division at PKO Bank Polski PKO Bank Polski supports its corporate clients in the implementation of investment projects. The financing will be used to achieve the group's strategic objectives, a.o. the development of a multi-fibre network, the expansion of the range of services on open networks and the refinancing of existing debt. #PKOBankPolski #PKOBP #loanmarkets #projectfinance #investment

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20 YEARS IN EU 🇪🇺 Celebrating 20 years since Slovakia entered the European single market in panel discussions with representatives of EIB, European Commission and National Bank of Slovakia. Thanks for the invitation 🙏 and opportunity to share our views on what needs to be done in order to repeat Slovak success story once again! Preparation for demographic changes, increase investments into R&D, support innovation culture and improvement of digital skills are just a few examples we recommend in our Prosperity Index. #Slovenskasporitelna #Research #IndexProsperity

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#NPLDaysEuropeSummit2024 What are the future risks and strategies for Sub-performing Loans in CEE? Do we see transactions and where could be found the opportunities? Are we facing any "Boiling Frog" Syndrome while the volatility increases? I am happy to co-panel on such topics with the leading restructuring experts in Barcelona.

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CNB on guard as economy recovers and inflation not fully resolved In light of latest economic data releases, we are revising some of the forecasts made in our last Czech Economic Outlook report. According to the second estimate of GDP, the economy performed slightly below our expectations in 1Q24. However, household consumption is recovering at a relatively strong pace, which should be supported by faster wage growth. We are therefore leaving our 2024 and 2025 GDP growth forecasts unchanged at 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively. In contrast, we are raising our inflation forecast slightly to an average of 2.4% for this year and 2.0% for next year. We are maintaining our core inflation estimate of 2.6% for this year, but raising our 2025 estimate to 2.0%. This is due to the higher inflation observed in recent months and increasing momentum in household consumption and wages. Meanwhile, wage forecasts have undergone the biggest change due to the surprisingly strong growth at the beginning of this year. As a result, we have raised our estimate of average nominal wage growth to 6.8% for 2024, while leaving it broadly unchanged at 5.3% for 2025. The Czech National Bank, which has proven to be very cautious, is therefore likely to cut interest rates more slowly than we had originally anticipated. Hence we now expect the repo rate to be cut by only 25bp at each of the this year’s remaining meetings, bringing it to 4% by the end of the year. In addition, the koruna is likely to be stronger than we had expected, contributing to tighter monetary conditions than we had forecast. More in #KBreport from Komerční banka 👇 or here: https://lnkd.in/gtQbeEiq. #forecasts #economy #inflation #wages #labourmarket #interestrates #czechkoruna #monetarypolicy #fiscalpolicy #financialmarkets #czechia

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