Richard Heydarian

The Russian-language information space is increasingly talking about the fact that British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, during his visit to Central Asian countries, will raise the topics of compliance with sanctions against Russia and refusal to supply Russia with sub-sanctioned goods. Some sources do not rule out that the British minister will put pressure on the leadership of the republic. In my opinion, the issues of compliance with the sanctions regime have long gone to the background. And for these purposes (especially with pressure) Cameron would certainly not go to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The West cares that the goods that enter Russia through Central Asia are not used for military purposes. But the activation of Western countries in Central Asia as a whole is possible thanks to the growth of exports to Central Asian countries. For this purpose, Western countries are ready to invest in infrastructure and further promote economic cooperation with Central Asian countries, because business and economic interests are behind this.

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My latest Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute report discusses the increasing prominence of the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route) and analyses the subsequent development opportunities and challenges in Central Asia. In summary: • The Middle Corridor trade route, connecting China and Europe via Central Asia has experienced a surge in freight shipping volume since the start of the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war. This could provide significant opportunities for Central Asian infrastructure development and domestic industry competitiveness. • Kazakhstan, the largest Central Asian economy, has been the most active in regional infrastructure development projects and China has been a key partner through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). • Despite increasing trade volumes, with Kazakhstan’s Middle Corridor trade turnover increasing by 45% in 2022, the long-term challenges of limited port capacity and administrative inconsistencies across the route, pose the risk of underwhelming economic development. Give it a read below: https://lnkd.in/e-DT-kev

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Bilateral and multilateral relations between the United States and the Central Asian republics will prosper over the next several years as long as all sides engage in diplomacy with mutual respect, common sense and business acumen, said Javier M. Piedra, specialist in international development, financial consultant and former Deputy Assistant Administrator for South and Central Asia at the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in Washington D.C According to him, U.S. interests in the region “should not be driven by geo-political considerations that insist on compliance with ideological agendas or one-sided rules that curtail the sovereign autonomy of Kazakhstan or any of its regional neighbors.” “U.S.-Central Asian relations would stand to gain through increased trade and investment. Besides oil and gas and other big-ticket items, the U.S. should continue to focus on policies and programs that lead to shared economic development and prosperity for the people as a whole. And it should ditch any programs of a social-engineering nature that would be offensive to the peoples and culture of Central Asia – no matter what anyone else says or thinks,” said Piedra. Diplomacy must be constructive. It must be built on trust, aiming to create advantageous scenarios for all parties concerned. According to Piedra, diplomats from Central Asia should continue to adhere to their well-known non-ideological “realpolitik.” “They should carry on with their multi-vector foreign policy. Steering clear of geo-political entanglements has served Kazakhstan and the other countries in the region well for decades,” said Piedra. Central Asian countries should keep a sharp lookout for geo-economic strategies that could result in dangerous financial dependencies such as debt or currency traps (whether in dollars, yuan, or rubles) that threaten strategic autonomy,” he said. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dBDiB-R7

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The polemics over a so-called “gentleman’s agreement” between the Philippines and China to manage a bitter row over the South China Sea may confound future diplomatic efforts to handle the spat. China sees Philippine commitment as fleeting, with abrupt reversals from earlier understandings not startling and discreet deals fair game to domestic partisan politics. Manila dismisses Beijing’s revelations as part of its false narratives meant to sow discord and confusion. Unreliability breeds skepticism. Divulging details of supposed behind-the-scenes negotiations is reprehensible. One silver lining is that despite all the noise, most Filipinos still prefer diplomacy to address the maritime tiff. Sharing my new CUSF piece https://lnkd.in/gNRE7E3m

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Myanmar's military is increasingly relying on forex policy to fund its conflict. Over the last year, the size of the potential rent from forex policy — e.g. the difference between the market rate and the weighted average rate that forex was actually sold on the day of the transaction — was at least 6.4 trillion kyat ($1.8 billion). This is nearly identical to the military budget and perhaps larger than the state’s natural gas earnings. And there are many indications that the military regime is capturing a growing share of this forex flow.

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Media moderation of public policies and government decisions is essential to ensure good governance! My OPeD piece published in the HT, Chd today

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There is a renaissance in the relationship between #India and #Philippines and they are rediscovering each other: Philippines Envoy in India Josel F. Ignacio - Philippines over the past few years has seen India as one of the major source of modernisation of the armed forces - It [the deal] is a great milestone for both countries. #BrahMos is a game changer for the Philippines in that it confers credible defence and deterrent capabilities. For India, the significance is it is the first overseas export of the BrahMos and it is affirmation of India’s raising capabilities and of its own indigenous defence industry. In a way, it expands India’s footprint overseas - the Envoy said, speaking at the Observer Research Foundation on June 25 In January 2022, Philippines concluded a $375 mn deal with India for three batteries of shore-based anti-ship variant of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, becoming the first export customer for the joint venture missile between India and Russia. The first batch of missile was delivered this April. #ASEAN #SCS #China #maritimesecurity https://lnkd.in/gcn-Xppb

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🌏 Learn from JFIT, UC San Diego about Japan's strategic priorities under PM Kishida on May 14 with Ulrike Schaede and Cabinet Secretary for Public Affairs Noriyuki Shikata. From defense to a “New Form of Capitalism,” don't miss insights on Japan's roadmap for a green transformation and more. RSVP: https://ow.ly/a7X050RzNmW

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ELECTION WATCH: Net migration has been a hot topic in the run-up to the General Election. In this new publication, The Migration Observatory identifies critical questions on migration policy and net migration's role in political debates. #GeneralElection2024 #UKimmigration #netmigration https://lnkd.in/ejZbR8EH

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Kazakhstan's participation in multilateral organizations serves to enhance its cooperation with its neighbors in constructing infrastructure and solving disputes as well as with global powers to advance issues important to the country. https://lnkd.in/eMbRnt_v

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Misinformation And Hacktivist Campaigns Target The Philippines Amidst Rising Tensions With China April 16, 2024, Resecurity https://lnkd.in/e8wBwHEK Amidst rising tensions with China in the SCS, Resecurity has observed a significant spike in malicious cyber activity targeting the Philippines in Q1 2024, increasing nearly 325% compared to the same period last year. The number of cyberattacks targeting the Philippines involving hacktivist groups and foreign misinformation campaigns has nearly tripled. In Q2 2024, this growth trajectory continues, with Resecurity observing multiple cyberattacks staged by previously unknown threat actors. These attacks are characterized by the intersection of ideological “hacktivist” motivations and nation-state-sponsored propaganda. One prolific example of this dynamic is the China-linked Mustang Panda group, which Resecurity observed using cyberspace to stage sophisticated information warfare campaigns. There is a thin line between cybercriminal activity (supported by the state) and nation-state actors engaging in malicious cyber activity. Leveraging hacktivist-related monikers allows threat actors to avoid attribution while creating the perception of homegrown social conflict online. This tactic is often combined with false-flag attacks originating under publicly known threat-actor profiles to keep a distance from the real intellectual authors of these malign campaigns. Resecurity interprets this activity as pre-staging for broader malicious, foreign cyber-threat actor activity in the region, including cyber espionage and targeted attacks against government agencies and critical infrastructure.

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"Striking the Balance: Navigating Minilateralism and Super Multilateralism in Global Diplomacy 🌍🤝🔗" 1️⃣🌏🤝🔗 Minilateralism offers a strategic edge in global diplomacy, providing speed and targeted cooperation where multilateralism may falter. By engaging in focused alliances, countries like the Philippines can address specific regional challenges effectively. 🚀💼📈 #GlobalDiplomacy #Minilateralism #StrategicAlliances 2️⃣🔍✨🌐 However, while minilateralism accelerates decision-making and implementation, it does so at the risk of creating exclusive groups, potentially sidelining broader stakeholder interests and fragmenting global cooperation. 🌍🚫🤝 #InclusiveDiplomacy #GlobalCooperation #InternationalRelations 3️⃣🤔🌟📋 In contrast, super multilateralism embodies inclusivity, integrating a diverse range of perspectives and resources which enrich the decision-making process and foster comprehensive solutions to complex global issues. 📚🌍🔄 #Multilateralism #ComprehensiveSolutions #DiversePerspectives 4️⃣🚀🌿🌍 The Philippine's strategic pivot to minilateralism, specifically through the US-Japan-Philippines summit, underscores a tactical approach to regional security and economic resilience amidst rising tensions in the South China Sea. 🛡️💪🏽🌊 #PhilippineForeignPolicy #RegionalSecurity #EconomicResilience 5️⃣📉🤷‍♂️🌏 While effective in the short term, this focus could potentially alienate ASEAN partners and other regional players, underscoring the delicate balance required in international diplomacy. 🕊️🔗🚨 #ASEAN #RegionalBalance #DiplomaticStrategy 6️⃣🤝💬🌐 Engaging more in super multilateral platforms could help the Philippines and similar nations to not only address immediate regional concerns but also contribute significantly to global efforts, enhancing their international influence and cooperation. 🌟🌍📈 #GlobalInfluence #InternationalCooperation #SuperMultilateralism 7️⃣🌍🗣️✨ It is essential for countries to strike a balance between minilateral and super multilateral engagements to ensure both regional interests and global stability are maintained. This approach promotes a more sustainable and peaceful international environment. 🕊️🌏🔄 #StrategicBalance #GlobalStability #PeacefulDiplomacy Let's discuss how nations can navigate the complexities of global politics by effectively leveraging both minilateral and multilateral platforms. What are your thoughts on finding the right balance? 🌐💭🤔 #GlobalPolitics #StrategicDiscussion #LeadershipDiscussion Copyright © 2024 Looi Teck Kheong. https://lnkd.in/gkJNTcrs

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On March 18, 2024, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), in conjunction with 17 other national ministries, unveiled the “Action Plan of Implementing National Standardization Development Outline (2024-2025)” (referred to as “the Action Plan 2024-2025” as below). The National Standardization Development Outline (referred to as the “Outline”), introduced by the State Council in 2021, was followed by an Action Plan in the subsequent year, aimed at supporting the objectives and goals outlined in the Outline. The Action Plan 2024-2025 serves as a sequel to the initial Action Plan, representing a second-round initiative to further actualize the principles and tasks delineated in the Outline, thereby holding significant importance. Comprising eight chapters encompassing 35 detailed articles, each assigning main responsibilities to relevant regulatory bodies, the Action Plan 2024-2025 delineates key areas of focus: https://lnkd.in/gEcZsu_W

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China’s exceptional obsession with culture presents a puzzle in understanding its culture-centric mindset and its influence on Beijing’s diplomacy. Rooted in a deep historical foundation and reinforced by a notable cultural renaissance under Xi Jinping, China’s culture-centric perception fosters a sense of distinctiveness and confidence in Chinese society. However, it also poses challenges to China’s foreign relations and its integration into the established world order. Read more in IDSS Paper "From Chopsticks to Diplomacy: Understanding China’s Culture-centric Influence on Foreign Relations" by Gu Bin and Li Mingjiang #RSIS #IDSSpaper

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📄 New #ERICC policy brief alert ❕ Drawing from findings of the recent working paper, Political economy and (in)coherence of the education system in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, we have just published a policy brief exploring the drivers and outcomes of dissonance between official intentions for cross-sectoral coordination, also referred to as the ‘humanitarian-development nexus’, and the default operations of the Education Sector in #CoxsBazar, Bangladesh. Developed by Dr Olha Homonchuk and Sam Sharp at ODI, this brief summarizes the sources of education system (in)coherences in Cox’s Bazar, drawing out the links between sector operations and the key actors’ de facto incentives and capacities, and illustrates the value of understanding how these political economy drivers shape the contours of plausible reforms to improve education coherence in emergencies. Read more on key findings and recommendations now: https://lnkd.in/gecgZZ5a #educationforall #evidencebasedpolicy

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