Desmond Lachman
The Archive
The economy looks good, but underlying weaknesses threaten to bring recession
There is an old Wall Street joke about a man who jumped off the Empire State Building; when asked at the 40th floor how he was doing, he replied, “So...
The world’s drowning in debt — brace yourself for economic turbulence
As Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart said in their book “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” unless addressed promptly overindebtedness almost always ends in tears.
Steel yourself — the stock market is irrationally exuberant again
The Dow closed Monday above 38,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500 had a record finish too.
Is the Federal Reserve prepared for the coming deflationary shock from China?
Anyone doubting that China has pursued an unsustainable growth model need only look at its property and credit market bubble.
With government debt topping $34 trillion, America is on a financial road to ruin
On Tuesday, the Treasury Department reported that the public debt has now topped $34 trillion.
Congress must get its act together and prevent a government shutdown — or recession is on its way
It’s never a good time for the US economy to be hit by a government shutdown. But now would be particularly inopportune — and a shutdown is looking likelier by the...
Asleep at the wheel: Mistake-prone Fed Reserve could be sending us into recession
Judging by all the policy mistakes Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve is making, one has to wonder whether next year it will be accused of having been asleep at the wheel...
Turkey — a key NATO player — is headed for serious economic turmoil
With Turkey’s inflation surging and a balance-of-payments crisis looming, Turkish President Recep Erdogan has been forced to row back on his economic policy.
Russia's, China's economic eclipse proves US system is still the best
For all its faults, our democratic and free-market economic system beats hands down the top-down and autocratically run economies of our main political rivals.
China's Madoff economy could come crashing down — with worldwide effect
Like the infamous Bernie Madoff, the Chinese government reported 7% to 8% growth each year no matter what really happened to the economy
The tough questions journalists won't ask Fed chair Jay Powell
Money supply increased by a staggering 40% from the start of 2020 to the end of 2021 to a situation where it is now actually contracting for the first time...
Brace for 1930s-style economic disorder — especially if interest rates keep climbing
There is every reason to think monetary-policy overkill would not be a good idea today as well.
Backward-looking Fed is missing key recession risks
The Powell Fed seems to have learned little from that experience about the importance of looking ahead rather than in the rearview mirror. It’s clinging to an aggressive policy even...
The US dollar’s imminent death is greatly exaggerated
Judging by a chorus of dollar pessimists including Yale’s Stephen Roach and former Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Jen, it seems the idea the dollar will be dethroned is back in...
The Fed should heed the IMF's credit-crunch warning before throwing us into a hard economic landing
Judging by its latest World Economic Report, the International Monetary Fund is well aware of credit-cycle risks.
Silicon Valley Bank's failure is a warning for the Fed
Silicon Valley Bank's failure Friday shined a spotlight on the large losses that the whole banking system has seen on investments in bonds as a result of rising interest rates.
The Fed continues to ignore basic economics — and it's we who will pay the price
The bank should be displaying more humility about its inflation-forecasting ability and not be dismissing these warnings out of hand. Maybe then the Fed will pause to reflect on whether...
Watch out: China's huge weaknesses promise to drag, not save, the world economy
Global economic policymakers are expecting China to soon provide major support to a flagging world economy now that it’s abandoned its zero-COVID policy.
The looming debt-ceiling crisis is too big for the Fed to ignore
The economic facts have changed markedly since the Federal Reserve last met. Not only is inflation decelerating in the context of a slowing economy — the risk of a government...
China's COVID surge is spreading — with good and very bad news for the world economy
It would be a gross understatement to say China is ill-prepared for President Xi Jinping’s recent abrupt abandonment of his zero-COVID policy. With a large part of the population inadequately...