Biden trails Trump in post-debate poll of crucial swing state Wisconsin
Former President Donald Trump has a clear lead over President Biden in the battleground state of Wisconsin, according to a new poll out Tuesday.
The survey conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP shows Trump, 78, leading Biden, 81, by five percentage points — 50% to 45% — among likely voters. Another 4% said they were undecided.
In a five-way race, Trump leads Biden 44% to 38%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 9% of the vote, followed by Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%. Another 5% of likely voters said they were undecided.
Tuesday’s poll is the fourth of the Badger State to be in the field since Biden’s dismal performance in the June 27 debate against Trump. Three of those four polls have shown Trump in the lead.
Biden’s deficit can in part be attributed to 10% of self-identified Democratic voters saying they will either pull the lever for someone other than the president or not vote at all.
By contrast, just 4% of self-identified Republican voters said they would back either a non-Trump candidate or no one at all.
The 45th president leads Biden in almost every age demographic, only trailing the Democrat by two percentage points in the head-to-head matchup among likely voters ages 18 to 34.
The Wisconsin Senate race is a reversal of the head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump, with Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin leading Republican Eric Hovde by five percentage points, 50% to 45% — the latest example of down-ballot candidates running ahead of the president.
Biden has insisted he will not drop out of the race, despite some in his party calling for him to suspend his campaign so a stronger Democrat can take his place.
The poll shows 56% of Wisconsin voters thought Trump won the debate, while just 13% said Biden had come out on top.
Almost one-quarter (23%) of likely voters said neither man had won the debate.
“Wisconsin voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Martha Cranley, AARP Wisconsin state director. “If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers.”
For older Wisconsin voters, immigration (37%) is one of their top two issues when deciding on a candidate, followed by inflation (29%) and threats to democracy (21%).
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters, along with an oversample of 452 likely voters 50 and older, from June 28 to July 2.
The margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points for the 600 likely voters and plus or minus 3.5% for the 50-plus demo.
