CNN analyst says Dems likely to lose both White House and Congress if Biden stays in race
If President Biden remains at the top of the Democratic Party ticket, it will be more likely that Republicans will not only win the White House this November but sweep both houses of Congress, according to CNN’s senior data reporter.
Harry Enten appeared on the network on Tuesday with a rundown of the latest polling data, which show that Biden’s down-ballot effect on Democrats is jeopardizing the party’s chances of winning the House and keeping control of the Senate.
“Joe Biden may be in slightly worse shape in these polls, but the fact is when Biden is down four, five, six points in these polls, you can only run so far ahead of Joe Biden and at this particular point, at least in the race for the House, it does seem like Republicans are ahead because [former President] Donald Trump is so far ahead,” Enten said during a segment with anchor John Berman.
Enten pointed out aggregated polling data which showed that the GOP holds between a two- and three-point lead in the House among registered voters.
He then noted that the Republicans have “a clear path” to take control of the Senate since Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), the former Democrat who recently became an independent, is retiring.
Trump won more than two-thirds of the vote in West Virginia in 2020 — making Manchin’s seat a likely pickup for the GOP this fall, according to Enten.
Since Republicans are likely to win Manchin’s seat, the Democrats’ only hope of reversing the GOP gain is to somehow win the Senate seat from Texas — though that is not likely given the Lone Star State’s solidly red leanings, according to Enten.
“So the fact is if Donald Trump wins this election, the race for the Senate in all intents and purposes in my mind is over,” he said.
Enten noted that since 2012, the same party that won the White House also swept control of both houses of Congress.
“If Biden loses, the chance of Democrats holding the Senate is close to zero because of the map and WV being an easy GOP pickup,” according to Enten.
Biden, who is resisting growing calls among Democrats to drop out of the race amid serious concerns about his mental acuity and apparent cognitive decline, would likely lose to Trump if elections were held today, according to the most recent surveys.
An aggregate of polls collected by CNN shows Trump holding a three-point lead over Biden, according to the news site Mediaite.
By contrast, Biden was ahead by Trump by nine points at the same juncture during the 2020 presidential campaign, CNN noted.
According to Enten, Biden’s worst polling in 2020 showed him with a four-point lead over Trump. He said there were no CNN-approved polls which showed Trump in front.
The CNN analyst noted that the data contradicted Biden’s claim that polls were underestimating him this year just as they did four years ago.
“The idea that the polls underestimated Joe Biden last time around, simply put, does not hold any water,” Enten said on Monday.
The Post has sought comment from the Biden campaign.
