The semifinals for Euro 2024 are wonderfully poised.
In Tuesday’s matchup, you have a young, dynamic Spanish team taking on an experienced French side that has pragmatically navigated its way to another semifinal at a major international tournament.
Two footballing powerhouses at very different parts of their story arc.
On Wednesday, the exciting-but-flawed Dutch take on an England side that has somehow been among the most disappointing teams in this tournament despite making it to the semis. Only the English could pull that off.
Both matchups feature tight odds and contrasting styles, which should make for great betting.
Spain vs. France prediction (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET)
(Spain +170 | Tie +180 | France +200)
No team has faced a tougher path to get to the semifinals than Spain.
La Furia Roja were placed in a group with Italy, Croatia and Albania and came through unscathed before blowing past Georgia, 4-1, in the Round of 16.
That earned this young Spanish side a date with the hosts, Germany, in the quarterfinals.
Spain not only passed that test but did it in electrifying fashion with Mikel Merino’s 119th-minute winner answering Germany’s equalizer in the 89th-minute.
Now, only France stands between Spain and its first trip to a final at a major tournament since 2012.
If Spain has electrified its fanbase en route to a trip to the final four, France has just taken care of business.
Didier Deschamps is one of the most decorated coaches in the history of international soccer, but his preferred style is to play with caution and hope that Kylian Mbappe or another one of his star players can come up with a difference-making moment.
It may not be pleasing on the eye, but France’s risk-averse style of soccer has been effective. Les Bleus won the World Cup in 2018 and were runners up in Euro 2016 and World Cup 2022. They now find themselves one win away from a fourth major final under Deschamps.
France has scored just three goals in the tournament, but there’s no denying that this is one of the best teams in the world at controlling the tempo of a match.
The issue is that Spain is a different sort of animal compared to the teams France has quieted to this point. La Furia Roja lead the tournament in goals per match, expected goals for and big scoring chances created.
Spain’s ability to unlock any defense should throw this match on its head and that puts value on La Furia Roja, who will be more comfortable if things go off script.
Recommendation: Spain to win in regulation (+170, BetMGM)
England vs. Netherlands prediction (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)
(Netherlands +220 | Tie +180 | England +165)
England has more talent than just about any team in the world, but it has preferred to play a pragmatic style that puts an emphasis on keeping things tidy rather than creating scoring chances.
The result has been five dreary matches. The Three Lions haven’t lost any of them and are in the semifinals, but considering their path (Serbia, Denmark, Slovenia, Slovakia and Switzerland) you’d expect more than just one win inside 90 minutes and five goals scored.
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The Netherlands sputtered to start this tournament, but has found some of its signature flair in their last two matches, albeit against Romania and Turkey.
The Dutch should provide a much stiffer test for this terrific English defense than any of their previous opponents and that should lead to more chaos, which is why playing the Over 2.5 at a good number seems a savvy bet.
Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals alternate total (+162, FanDuel).