We’ve hit a couple of winners recently, so hopefully we can get back on track at the John Deere Classic following a week where we didn’t have a single sweat heading into the final rounds.
TPC Deere Run is an attackable par-71 that measures 7,289 yards.
The winning score at the course has been at least 19-under par in each of the last five years.
During that stretch, it has ranked 38th, 34th, 41st, 35th and 46th in terms of difficulty on the PGA Tour, making it one of the easiest courses in the rotation each year.
The fairways are wide (35 yards) and easy to hit (64 percent driving accuracy last year).
The course is short enough that you don’t have to be a bomber to contend. We’ve seen a nice mix of bombers and plodders win here over the years.
The greens are small in size (5,500) but very easy to hit (72 percent in regulation in 2023).
When everyone is hitting greens regularly, it often comes down to an approach and putting contest.
In terms of approach shots, there will be a lot of wedges hit this week. Nearly 45 percent of approach shots came from inside 150 yards last year.
This helps explain why there are so many birdies at this event, as professionals are so dialed in with their wedges.
While making birdies is important, avoiding bogeys could be the key to victory this week.
When you make bogeys at a birdie-friendly course, it often feels like you are giving away multiple shots to the field.
My key statistics for the week: total driving, strokes gained approach, strokes gained putting and bogey avoidance. Here are my best bets for the John Deere Classic:
Maverick McNealy to win (28/1, FanDuel)
While McNealy didn’t have a great week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he did manage to bounce back and make the cut after a rough start.
He’s gained at least 1.6 strokes on approach in four of his last six starts.
If you look at his statistics this season, he has routinely gained strokes off the tee, around the green and putting.
A hot putter is often needed to win these birdie-fests and McNealy has gained more than four strokes putting in three of his last 10 events.
He’s only played this event twice in the last five years but finished T8 and T18.
This is a very fair outright number given the lack of talent in this week’s field.
J.T. Poston to win (35/1, DraftKings)
It’s extremely difficult to lead an event wire-to-wire, but Poston did at this event in 2022.
In his title defense last year, he finished T6.
He’s an accurate driver of the ball, above average with his approach play (especially his wedges), and he’s an elite putter.
It’s easy to see why he’s had so much success here over the last couple of years.
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Ben Griffin to win (70/1, Caesars)
We’ve seen several long-shot winners at this event, so I don’t mind looking down the outright board a bit this week.
My favorite long shot is Griffin, who should have the perfect skill set for TPC Deere Run.
Compared to the rest of the field, he’s elite on approach and on the greens.
He has struggled with consistency this year but finished runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open last month and has three other top-20 finishes in his last 10 events.
The main concern is that he’s never played this event, but the 70/1 is more than enough to make up for it.