Overwhelming majority of voters believe Dems would have better shot if Biden was replaced: poll
An overwhelming majority of voters say the Democratic Party would have a better chance of retaining the White House this fall if President Biden was not on the ticket, according to a post-debate poll released Tuesday.
The CNN/SSRS survey found former President Donald Trump, 78, maintaining a six-percentage point lead (49%-43%) over Biden, 81, among registered voters following the Atlanta forum.
Among the same cohort, 75% said they believed Democrats would have a better chance of winning the Nov. 5 election if someone else was the party’s nominee, while just 25% said they thought the party’s chances were better with Biden leading the way.
Significantly, 56% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents polled said the party had a better shot with a different nominee, while just 43% liked the odds with Biden at the top of the ticket.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the clear favorite to replace Biden should he exit the race, trailed Trump by just two points (47%-45%) in a hypothetical head-to-head, the best performance in terms of vote share and margin of any of the four big-name Democrats polled as possible stand-in nominees.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom trailed Trump by five percentage points (48%-43%), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was behind by four (47%-43%), and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was behind by five (47%-42%).
In a five-way matchup with third-party candidates included, Biden still trailed Trump by six, 41%-35%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. got 14% of the vote, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein got 3%, independent Cornel West came in at 2%, and Libertarian Oliver Chase got 1%.
Biden has insisted that he will not suspend his re-election bid and his closest allies have maintained public support for his run.
But the debate was shocking to viewers who had not seen Biden so clearly dazed before, as he was operating without a teleprompter and had to spar directly with Trump late at night.
The poll showed that an overwhelming 72% of voters said Biden’s level of physical and mental acuity was a reason to vote against him in November. Just 10% said it was a reason to vote for him, while 19% said it didn’t make a difference either way.
More than three-quarters (76%) of voters who watched or paid attention to the June 27 debate thought Trump had won, while just 23% thought Biden came out on top.
The president’s job approval rating also dropped to 36%, a new low in the CNN/SSRS survey during his term, while his overall favorability slumped to 34%.
However, other prominent Democrats fared even worse, including Harris (29% favorability), Buttigieg (25%), Newsom (21%), and Whitmer (13%)
Biden’s debate flop also impacted his standing in New Hampshire, according to a St. Anselm College Survey Center poll released Monday. The survey, conducted after the debate, showed Biden trailing Trump by two (44%-42%) in a state the Democrat won by seven points in 2020.
Biden’s base also does not seem energized by the prospect of him being in the race, as 63% of those who said they would vote for or were leaning toward the Democrat said they were doing so more to stop Trump from a second term.
By contrast, 66% of those who supported or were leaning toward Trump said they were doing so as an expression of confidence in the 45th president.
Nearly three-quarters of voters who said they had picked a candidate (73%) said their minds were made up about their vote, while 27% said they could still change their mind before Election Day.
The numbers also show that traditional Democrat-supporting demographics are not rallying as hard behind Biden. Trump led his rival in every age bracket, including by six percentage points (47%-41%) among voters ages 18-34.
The presumptive Republican nominee also got 33% among people of color, while Biden could only manage 54% support.
The CNN/SSRS poll was conducted online and via phone June 28-30. It sampled 1,045 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5%.
