Iran goes to a runoff presidential election between reformist Pezeshkian and hard-liner Jalili

Iran will hold a runoff presidential election Friday after no candidate secured an outright win in an initial vote. 

Voters in the Islamic Republic will cast their ballots on July 5 to decide whether reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian or hardline former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili will succeed the late President Ebrahim Raisi, who died last month in a helicopter crash.  

In the lowest voter turnout since the republic was formed in 1979 when the shah was ousted, neither candidate secured the 50%-plus-1 vote required by Iranian law to declare victory, the interior ministry said. 

Out of the roughly 25 million ballots cast, Pezeshkian secured 10.4 million votes to Jalili’s 9.4 million. Two additional hardline candidates, Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Shiite cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi, received 3.3 million and 206,000 votes, respectively.

Despite Pezeshkian’s narrow lead in this week’s snap election, conservatives are expected to rally around Jalili, a zealous ideologue who has maintained a strict anti-Western stance and fierce devotion to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

The presidential election, originally set for 2025, comes at a time of escalating tensions in the Middle East amid the war between Israel and Tehran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, with Iran launching its first-ever direct attack on the Jewish state in April. Meanwhile, tensions with the West have escalated over Iran enriching uranium at levels nearing weapons grade.

Khamenei ultimately wields much of the power in Iran, meaning the runoff winner will have little say over Tehran’s nuclear program or backing terror groups in the Middle East. The president, however, runs the day-to-day operations and can have some impact on domestic and foreign policy. 

Analysts have suggested a victory for Jalili would see Iran’s foreign and domestic policy become even more hostile toward the West. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, has insisted during his campaign on building “constructive relations” with the United States and Europe to “get Iran out of its isolation,” according to reports.   

Pezeshkian’s victory could also boost the possibility of social liberalization and political pluralism in Tehran. 

“We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behaviour toward women,” Pezeshkian said after casting his vote.

Whoever wins Friday’s election also likely will play a close role in choosing a successor for 85-year-old Khamenei, who wants a devout president who can ensure a smooth succession for the Islamic Republic’s top leader, insiders and analysts told Reuters.