Trump supporters more likely to watch debate than Biden backers, survey finds

Fresh polling reveals Democratic partisans seem to think their presidential candidate is a bit stale.

The Economist/YouGov Poll conducted June 23-25 reveals that among many subgroups, there is a marked difference between those who say they’re sure things when it comes to watching Thursday night’s CNN debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump in Atlanta and those who aren’t.

While there will be no audience at the event itself, the numbers suggest Democrats are more likely to tune out the event, leaving an opportunity for the presumptive Republican nominee to make inroads with the most important audience of all: those watching on television, both on CNN and numerous outlets simulcasting the first face-off between the current president and the former president in nearly four years.

When it comes to “voter intent,” 37% of professed Biden backers say they “definitely will” tune in Thursday, while 40% of Trump enthusiasts make the same claim. While both are above the 35% of registered voters pledging to tune in, Team Trump has the edge here.

On the question of party identification, the gap is more pronounced.

Forty percent of Republicans are definite in their Thursday night plans; just 33% of Democrats say the same. 

It’s notable that the share of Trumpers and GOP viewers is static, while the numbers show attrition on the other side, with fewer Democrats saying they’re committed to watching than the share of Biden backers. 

Meanwhile, just 17% of independents say they will definitely watch, suggesting persuadable voters aren’t the ultimate audience for this show.

Among leaners, the story is largely the same.

While 36% of those who lean Republican are committed to the CNN broadcast, only 31% of Democratic leaners are. And when leaners are added to one column or another, only 12% of those who don’t have a preference definitely intend to watch.

The break is least pronounced when it comes to the ideological question, indicating the Biden-Trump race isn’t defined along simple liberal-conservative dichotomies. 

Among self-identified conservatives, 35% will definitely watch; 34% of liberals say the same thing. Only 25% of moderates are committed to watching the two-hour event.

Other questions in the polling reinforce the idea that Trump partisans are more motivated than those backing Biden.

While 50% of Trump voters say they’re “very enthusiastic” about their November choice, only 35% of Biden supporters say the same thing. 

This split recurs on ideological and party-identification grounds: 43% of conservatives and 43% of Republicans say they’re very enthusiastic about voting in November, but just 30% of liberals and 29% of Democrats say the same thing.

All that said, the data offer some encouragement for the other side.

The same percentage of Biden and Trump backers — 90% — say they will definitely vote in November, though when party split is factored in, the math favors the GOP, with 87% of Republicans and just 84% of Democrats making the same claim.

And though there isn’t a national general election — Electoral College votes, not the popular vote, decide — the overall race is tied (for what that’s worth), with Trump and Biden each at 42% among registered voters.