Trump favored to win first presidential debate against Biden, poll shows
More Americans expect former President Donald Trump to outperform President Biden in Thursday’s first presidential debate, according to a new poll.
The Leger survey, exclusively shared with The Post Wednesday, found that 42% of respondents thought the 45th president would come out on top, while just 29% believed the incumbent would win the forum. The remaining 29% said they weren’t sure.
Self-declared Republicans had more confidence in their candidate, with 83% of that cohort thinking Trump would win and only 60% of proclaimed Democratic voters betting on Biden.
The presumptive major-party nominees will face off at CNN’s Atlanta headquarters beginning at 9 p.m.
While the poll found that exactly 50% of Americans plan to watch the debate, just 10% said the showdown could potentially change their choice on Nov. 5.
A whopping 75% of respondents said the debate would have no impact on whom they would vote for and another 15% said they were unsure.
Biden edged out Trump, 45% to 43%, when likely voters were asked whom they would support if the election were held today. The remaining 12% said they would vote for “someone else.”
The 81-year-old leads Trump in the survey despite an approval rating of just 34% — while nearly one in five (19%) who voted for Biden four years ago say they disapprove of how he has been performing as president.
Slightly more Americans (39%) thought Trump would win the election, compared to 32% who believed Biden will win.
In a five-way matchup with third-party candidates included, the poll showed Biden and Trump in a dead heat at 38% each among likely voters.
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 7% support, independent Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein got 2% each and 13% said they didn’t know whom they would support.
Trump’s July 11 sentencing in his Manhattan “hush money” case could impact the election results, with Biden’s lead in the popular vote growing to 5 percentage points if the former president gets put behind bars.
Trump, 78, was found guilty May 30 of 34 counts of falsifying business records to hide evidence of payments to ex-porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election to keep her quiet about a purported affair a decade earlier.
The Leger poll was conducted online June 22-24, with a sample size of 1,003 US adults and a margin of error of 3.01%.
