Tuesday has the potential to be one of those classic, chaotic days at a major international soccer tournament.
There are eight teams in action and seven of them still have a chance to qualify for the Round of 16 if results go their way in their final match of the group stage.
It all gets started with Group D at noon ET (France vs. Poland), but the real carnage will come at 3 p.m. ET when Group C concludes with two simultaneous matches (England vs. Slovenia, Denmark vs. Serbia).
France (-350) vs. Poland (+900)
Poland was the only team eliminated from the competition after two matches, but they’ll relish the opportunity to play spoilers against one of the favorites to lift the trophy.
France, meanwhile, is all but assured of advancing to the Round of 16, but can finish anywhere from first to third depending on how things go Tuesday. They’ll want to avoid dropping any points, though, as finishing first in Group D would set up a terrific path to the semifinals.
Knowing that they’ll need to win and finish with a better goal difference than the Netherlands (they’re both +1 after two matches), you’d expect France to uncharacteristically put the pedal to the metal here from the onset. That will suit Poland, which has nothing to lose in this contest.
Expect fireworks early in this one.
Recommendation: 1H Over 1.5 (+140, DraftKings)
England (-280) vs. Slovenia (+900)
Oh, this will be fun. The game may not be, but the hype and media circus surrounding it will be incredible.
England have four points from two matches and are massive favorites to win the group (a win locks it up and a draw could also be enough), but nobody is happy with the way things have gone for the Three Lions in this tournament so far.
Perhaps the most talented and deepest squad in this field, England have been dreary going forward. They’ve yet to score more than a goal in any game and created 1.5 expected goals against Serbia and Denmark, combined.
You’d expect the pressure for a performance will cause England to open things up a bit, but Slovenia have proven to have a sturdy defense and a deadly counter-attacking side through two matches with Benjamin Sesko showing why he’s on his way to becoming one of the most dangerous strikers on the planet.
England may have the ball all night, but they could absolutely get caught trying to force things too much here. Slovenia is live at this price.
Recommendation: Slovenia +900 (FanDuel)
Denmark (+120) vs. Serbia (+220)
For Serbia, this is a knockout match. They need to win to have any chance of advancing.
This isn’t technically a must-win match for Denmark, but a draw could leave them vulnerable to tiebreakers to advance.
Serbia has the profile of being a chaotic team. Their 2022 World Cup campaign lasted three matches, but saw 13 total goals across those contests. The Eagles are a physical, strong and technically gifted side, but they have trouble linking together and that can cause things to go awry quickly.
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Denmark is quite the opposite. A stoic, experienced side that prefers to keep things tidy, Denmark may not be suited for what Serbia is going to throw at them Tuesday.
We saw the Danes struggle with Slovenia’s doggedness in their opener and I would not be shocked to see a similar script play out in this contest.
In a situation like this, where both sides are going to be desperate for the win, I’ll back the team that projects to be more comfortable in chaos, especially when they’re the underdog.
Recommendation: Serbia +220 (BetMGM)